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Mike's Week 14 college football betting picks against the spread for Tuesday, November 25, Thursday, November 27, and Friday, November 28, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Rivalry week will decide many things. Some teams are only playing for pride. Some are playing for seeding. Most are playing for trophies. This is the most fun week of the year, and it gives us a loaded Friday slate. We can't complain about that.
We have a lot of games on Friday this week. There are 13 Friday games to go with the two on Tuesday to close out MACtion and a game on Thanksgiving night in Memphis. That's not to say that we don't still have a busy Saturday. There are 51 games on the final regular season Saturday of the college football season. How is the season over already?
Every team except for Akron and UConn is in action this week. We can find something for everyone. Then we'll see how last week went.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 14
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
Bowling Green (-14.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
How bad is this game? They're playing it at 4 p.m. on a freaking Tuesday. Peak MACtion, folks. This is also a very low number in a spread involving UMass.
Pick: Bowling Green -14.5
Western Michigan (-7.5) at Eastern Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This series has been dominated by runs since 2007. Each team has had at least a three-game win streak in this series since then. Western's current win streak is at two, so they're going to win.
By how much? This game has only been decided by a touchdown or less once in the last five years.
Pick: Western Michigan -7.5
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's not your typical Thanksgiving Day fare, but it should be more enjoyable than the NFL offerings.
Pick: Memphis -5.5
(6) Mississippi (-7.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Oh, how I hate that hook. It's easy to understand why Vegas loves it. There is no juice at all on the Mississippi side at 7.5. Vegas wants us to bet on Ole Miss.
Many think that Lane Kiffin is bailing on Ole Miss. If he does, this team will bail on him. There's too much static around this game to get a meaningful read. I'm leaving it alone.
Pick: Mississippi State +7.5
(12) Utah (-11.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's right! Let this line keep falling! Utah is going to come out and make a statement here. Kansas can't run the ball well enough to expose the defense that way that their in-state counterparts did.
Pick: Utah -11.5
Iowa (-6.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Nebraska has only beaten Iowa once since 2015 (under Scott Frost in 2022, of all people). Every game since 2018 has been a one-score game. Five of those seven games were decided by less than this spread. This feels like another game that Nebraska loses on a last-second field goal.
The last time Iowa lost in Lincoln:
- Osama Bin Laden was alive
- 1 Bitcoin was $0.001
- Matt Rhule wasn't on Ozempic
- Big 10 West wasn't even a thought
- Steve Jobs was alive
- Milk was $0.90 a gallon
- Bo Pelini had Nebraska not the laughing stock of CFBKinnick West!!!! pic.twitter.com/PRzgS3pn9N
— Hawkeye Enjoyer 🐤 (@HawkGuyEnjoyer) November 24, 2025
Pick: Nebraska +6.5
Ohio (-6.5) at Buffalo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is too low. The deluge in the first half prevented Ohio from covering UMass. There could be light snow in this one, but a little snow isn't going to stop Sieh Bangura.
Pick: Ohio -6.5
Kent State at Northern Illinois (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
NIU has only scored above 20 points three times. One of those was against UMass, so I'm not sure that counts. Kent isn't much better. That's a fairly high spread to cover for a team that's allergic to scoring.
Pick: Kent State +4.5
Air Force (-1.5) at Colorado State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I'm not falling for this again. Liam Szarka is out for this game as well.
Pick: Colorado State +1.5
(4) Georgia (-13.5) at Georgia Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Clean, Old Fashioned Hate…. pic.twitter.com/87MzvYCL9S
— FRESH IRC PODCAST (@SS_2FRESH) November 23, 2025
Clean Old-Fashioned Hate was a crazy game last year. This year doesn't feel that way. Gunner Stockton has Georgia's offense moving. Tech has lost two of the last three to take themselves completely out of the CFP discussion.
Tech hasn't beaten Georgia since 2016, and hasn't beaten the Bulldogs in Atlanta since 1999. Oh, how this game belongs on campus instead of that ugly dome...
Pick: Georgia -13.5
San Diego State (-1.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This is a severe overreaction to the Lobos holding Air Force to three points.
Pick: San Diego State -1.5
Temple at North Texas (-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The legend of Drew Mestemaker keeps growing. The CFP deserves North Texas in it.
Pick: North Texas -19.5
Boise State (-3.5) at Utah State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Boise was able to run all over Colorado State. The Utah State offense is fun, but the Broncos will likely get too much leverage on the Utah State front. I want to say that the Aggies win this, but their defense worries me.
Pick: Boise State -3.5
(2) Indiana (-28.5) at Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Indiana won 66-0 in Bloomington last year, and this iteration of Purdue might be worse.
Pick: Indiana -28.5
(3) Texas A&M (-2.5) at (17) Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Marcel Reed has been making mistakes lately. Against the Texas defense on the road, he's going to make more. Arch Manning has quietly grown into what ESPN thought he was in August. I have a feeling about this one, and Aggies fans aren't going to like it...
Pick: Texas +2.5
Arizona (-1.5) at (25) Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'll stop with the Jeff Sims slander, but this is going to be a tough Territorial Cup game. The two teams are both bowl eligible entering the game for the first time since 2017. These games have not been close in recent years. This year should be an exception.
Pick: Arizona -1.5
CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? I think I had a decent week, even though I didn't believe in my team. So it goes.
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Akron at Bowling Green (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Poor Akron. They finally get to playing well, then they don't have a game in the last week of the season, and they didn't make a bowl game. On top of that, they would have been banned from said bowl game for poor grades, yet Georgia graduates less than half of its football players, and not a peep. I'm not saying it's right. I just want the same rules for everyone.
Massachusetts at Ohio (-32.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
A slow start in the rainy first half blew my chances of cashing this.
Western Michigan (-6.5) at Northern Illinois: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Broncos just need one more win to play for a MAC title.
Miami (OH) (-1.5) at Buffalo: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bulls have a lot of talent on that offense. Unfortunately, they have a human turnover at quarterback...
Central Michigan (-9.5) at Kent State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kent never really had a chance in this one.
Louisiana at Arkansas State (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This was one of the more exciting games of the weekend. The Red Wolves had every chance to take this home. They just didn't want it.
Florida State (-4.5) at North Carolina State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Florida State is such an undisciplined team. It's a culture problem, and they aren't interested in changing the culture. That's a problem in the athletic department.
Hawaii at UNLV (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The More You Know!
Who knew, Hawaii and UNLV play for the “Ninth Island Trophy”?! 🤯
We need Vegas Mack’s approval here…but…WE LOVE THIS! #CollegeFootball pic.twitter.com/ij3F4I3LnN
— MikeAranaShow (@MikeAranaShow) November 22, 2025
The Golden Pineapple is staying in Vegas. Only the haters (and the losers of the trophy) call it the Swinger's Trophy.
Rutgers at (1) Ohio State (-31.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I only want to know what Ryan Day said to the team at halftime.
(22) Missouri at (8) Oklahoma (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Okay, I'm willing to call the Oklahoma defense elite now. When you hold arguably the best running back in the country to zero yards in the second half, that's elite.
(13) Miami (FL) (-17.5) at Virginia Tech: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That was way too close for comfort.
Minnesota at Northwestern (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Northwestern finally gets a win at Wrigley, but they can't get my cover...
Louisville at SMU (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Vegas came out good in this one since Keyjuan Brown was ruled out with little time to spare...and little time to tweak the odds.
Delaware at Wake Forest (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Wake's defense was the first to really get after Delaware this year.
Kansas at Iowa State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I let the storyline get the best of me. I almost forgot how bad this Kansas defense is. What a waste of a great final season from Jalon Daniels.
Tulsa at Army (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm impressed by Baylor Hayes. How much do you want to bet that he's Oklahoma State's starting quarterback in 2026?
Charlotte at (4) Georgia (-44.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Georgia never covers these lines, and that's okay. We know how to make money off of them anyway.
Washington State at James Madison (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cougars are looking better heading into a second Pac-12 showdown with Oregon State. Yes, it's that kind of year.
Baylor at Arizona (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I should have maxed this out. Oh, how I wish Baylor played Kansas this year. There might have been 140 combined points in that game...
Old Dominion (-12.5) at Georgia Southern: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Uh, so much for 5-0 at home...
Missouri State at Kennesaw State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
A touchdown with 27 seconds left got the win and the cover for the Owls.
Nevada at Wyoming (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew this line was bogus, but I didn't trust in Nevada's one-game renaissance.
Ball State at Toledo (-27.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Even those people who bet it at -28.5 got rewarded since Toledo won by 29. That's a team of the people, folks!
Marshall (-5.5) at Appalachian State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If I had followed the trends I highlighted, I would have gone with App State. Sometimes trends are very right.
Connecticut (-7.5) at Florida Atlantic: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
At least if you game-stacked this on DraftKings as I did, we still came out ahead. This was the best game of the season for Caden Veltkamp, but he still threw another interception.
Liberty (-1.5) at Louisiana Tech: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Overtime is rarely kind to point spreads.
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee State (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sam Houston scored 17 points in a road game. Baby steps.
New Mexico State at UTEP (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know this is a rivalry game, but that explains why the Aggies only won by three points. UTEP is terrible!
New Mexico State celebrates with the Silver Spade and the Brass Spittoon after beating UTEP.
(Photos sent by @BusOnEpsn) pic.twitter.com/PUUfL9kCcf
— Nick Coppola (@Nick_Coppola__) November 22, 2025
Those trophies will reside in Las Cruces for a while since no more I-10 rivalry games are currently on the schedule.
South Florida (-21.5) at UAB: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
South Florida is playing like it still has a chance at the CFP. They do, but it's not a good one.
(15) USC at (7) Oregon (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oregon finally got one of those ranked wins that they hear so much about. USC played tough for most of this game, but that's not enough when you're paying the money that they are for Lincoln Riley.
Syracuse at (9) Notre Dame (-35.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
📊🏈DID WE REALLY GET BEAT THAT BAD?
NET SUCCESS RATES IN WEEK 13 pic.twitter.com/MjbXYSm8Yd— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 24, 2025
I do love this chart because it often tells me that I was on the right track with my picks. For example, I had Liberty, Missouri State, and Marshall. The success rates were there. This chart doesn't include factors such as special teams or turnovers, but that makes Notre Dame even more impressive.
This didn't include the first three touchdowns! Notre Dame scored on two interception returns for touchdowns and a blocked punt for a touchdown before the offense even touched the ball. This is one of the most lopsided games I have ever seen, and it is definitely the most lopsided that net success rate has ever seen.
Kentucky at (14) Vanderbilt (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Diego Pavia leads the ENTIRE COUNTRY with 3,585 yards that he is responsible for.
He is also responsible for 34 touchdowns.
If he was putting up these same stats for a bigger brand he would be the favorite to win the Heisman. #2Turnt
— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) November 23, 2025
The funny thing is...when ESPN started hyping Diego Pavia for the Heisman, his numbers were average. It's almost like the ESPN hype machine woke him up. It's far more likely that the Vanderbilt staff noticed that they may never get another shot like this for a Heisman and started funneling the offense through Pavia.
I'm not throwing shade. It's a good move for Vanderbilt's program and for the team, since it seemed to make the team better. His last three games have been Heisman-worthy. In a year in which no one has really stood out, it should be Pavia's to lose, right now. Only Indiana's Fernando Mendoza has accounted for more touchdowns.
Arkansas at (17) Texas (-8.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I love the way that Manning has handled this season. He could be flexing on all of those people calling him the biggest bust in history a month into the season, but he's not. He's still out there just getting better and being humble about it.
I do think the hype was real. It was just early. We're seeing the start of it over the last three games or so. Arch is going to be scary in 2026.
Michigan State at Iowa (-16.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Iowa did score 17. So did Michigan State. I wish I had had more confidence in this bet.
Duke (-6.5) at North Carolina: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I still don't think that Bill Belichick is the best fit at North Carolina, but this isn't the epic failure that it looked like it could be, either. There is a middle ground, and we're seeing it. The bad news is that the middle ground still isn't good enough.
This neared a boil earlier in the season. It's going to boil over at some point. It'll be more Three Mile Island than Chernobyl, but it's still not going to be pretty.
Jacksonville State (-1.5) at Florida International: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
FIU lost this game in every aspect but the final score. It was one of those weird games.
Southern Mississippi (-1.5) at South Alabama: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Braylon Braxton did play. The rest of the team didn't.
East Carolina (-2.5) at UTSA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm now convinced that UTSA could win the conference every year if they played every game in the Alamodome. Now, about that loss to Texas State...
(24) Tulane (-8.5) at Temple: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Tulane was the only ranked Group of 5 team in the CFP Poll this year. They are the anointed ones this year. All they have to do is win.
Kansas State at (12) Utah (-17.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I hear a lot of things regarding this game. Utah didn't get lucky so much as they converted on third down. Allowing 472 rushing yards (and honestly, it could have been worse) is a big issue for a Utah team that has playoff aspirations.
The rushing yards were a school record for Kansas State, which was also a triple option team for 70 years, like the rest of the Big 8. It was the most allowed by a ranked Utah team. Maybe it's time to just let Kansas State run the ball in 2026.
(18) Michigan (-14.5) at Maryland: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Honestly, Michigan needed a win like this. If they are hoping for a playoff invite with a win over Ohio State, they need the CFP committee to move them up. The ugly wins over Purdue, and Northwestern weren't getting it done.
TCU at (23) Houston (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Houston getting back into the CFP rankings was bogus anyway. All because the Power 4 fat cats don't want to acknowledge the existence of teams like James Madison and North Texas.
Oklahoma State at Central Florida (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I had a feeling about this game, but I can't quantify that with stats and trends, so I just left it alone.
Georgia State at Troy (-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The net table above shows that Georgia State played well enough to win this game. Goose Crowder was back to himself in this one. This is what made Troy so dangerous earlier this year.
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina (-24.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If South Carolina has any chance of beating Clemson, they needed to get their confidence back. Mission accomplished.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State (-18.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
There is a reason that I left this one alone. Texas State was only up 3-0 at halftime.
Pittsburgh at (16) Georgia Tech (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This wasn't even Tech living dangerously. This was Tech being manhandled on defense.
Nebraska at Penn State (-8.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Maybe, just maybe, Penn State doesn't need Matt Rhule. Nebraska was outplayed in every facet of this game and outcoached by an interim coach and staff.
New Mexico (-3.5) at Air Force: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Air Force offense has no pulse without Szarka.
Colorado State at Boise State (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
My first instinct was right. I shouldn't have changed this.
(20) Tennessee (-4.5) at Florida: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Tennessee and Florida will no longer be yearly opponents and the Vols finish it by winning 3 of the last 4 matchups
One of the bigger accomplishments of the Heupel era pic.twitter.com/bH7VYyDlKt
— CHANNEL TN (@CHANNEL_TN_) November 23, 2025
This is significant for being Tennessee's first win in the Swamp since 2003, but it's more than that. Only two coaches in Tennessee history have a winning record against Florida in their first five games against the Gators: Josh Heupel and Robert Neyland.
The 31-point deficit at halftime was the largest Florida deficit at the half at home in school history. The previous record was when Florida trailed Auburn 16-0 at the half in 1988.
I don't understand the Heupel hate, even from some within the program. After what happened in the offseason, Tennessee is still going to make an important bowl game. Add in Joey Aguilar spending an entire offseason under the tutelage of Heupel, and we could see a Hendon Hooker-type growth out of Aguilar if he comes back.
(21) Illinois (-7.5) at Wisconsin: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Does it matter that Wisconsin would have fired Luke Fickell if it could have afforded to? The team has played with heart lately, but the lack of a quarterback is still a bit concerning.
Maybe Wisconsin just saw a hole in the Illinois defense and exploited it. Carter Smith was solid as the quarterback, but the damage was done on the ground. Darrion Dupree was Wisconsin's first 100-yard rusher on the season.
California (-3.5) at Stanford: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Who knew there’d be so much tension with handing over an axe 😳
Stanford defeated Cal to win back the rivalry trophy and it was quite the scene 🪓 pic.twitter.com/n8FZrCJaxR
— The College Sports Company (@CollegeSportsCo) November 24, 2025
Now, Stanford will change the score on the plaque for the 1983 game. Does your school have a rivalry and trophy like this? The conferences seem hell-bent on creating a system that no one wants, so the rich can get richer. It's traditions like this that keep the sport from eating itself.
North Texas (-17.5) at Rice: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
All of the talk is about Tulane, but maybe you should get acquainted with Mestemaker and the North Texas Mean Green. This team is absolutely capable of taking the big from Tulane, and they should get the chance in two weeks.
Western Kentucky at LSU (-21.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
LSU completely controlled this game and still almost lost. How is it possible that Michael Van Buren Jr. regressed under this staff? Oh wait...I guess it was a Brian Kelly staff.
(11) BYU (-2.5) at Cincinnati: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
As long as Vegas keeps this up, I'll keep cashing those Cougars checks. All politicking aside, this is a playoff team.
(25) Arizona State (-7.5) at Colorado: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't think we're talking about the job that Sims has done as Arizona State's quarterback enough. Do you guys not remember how much he struggled at Nebraska? He's a completely different quarterback this year.
Washington (-10.5) at UCLA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The only reason I took UCLA was because of the hook. That's on me.
Utah State at Fresno State (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Bryson Barnes is Pavia light.
San Jose State at San Diego State (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I really considered maxing this out. I should have...
College Football Betting Season Results
I had two good weeks in a row. It feels nice after a rough end to September. I've finally dug myself out of that hole. I went 32-28 this week to put me at 345-340 heading into rivalry week. This week usually gets nuts! I think I'm ahead in betting because not all bets are created equal. Let's check!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1.3-2 (45-35) = 10
2. 10-13 (111-135) = -48
3. 14-10 (120-107) = 39
4. 3-3 (47-49) = -8
5. 2-0 (22-14) = 40
I gained 17 points this week to put me 33 points ahead on the season. Hitting four straight max bets definitely helps the cause.
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