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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 1 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Texas.
Week 1 College Football Playoff Projections
We’re back for Year 2 of the 12-team playoff era, and thankfully, this year the CFP has fixed its biggest issue. Instead of the four first-round byes going to the four highest-ranked conference champions, the byes will go to the four highest-ranked teams.
It’s a good change. Boise State and Arizona State had undeserved byes last year and lost their first playoff game, though it’s probably worth noting that the other two teams with a first-round bye also lost their first game. Are the byes cursed? Probably not. Having to play one less football game during the grueling playoff schedule is still probably an advantage, even if the teams with byes went 0-4 last year. Anyway, enough pontificating about the playoff structure. Here’s our best guess at the 12-team bracket for 2025 heading into Week 1 of the college football season.
12. Boise State
Last year, the Group of 5 representative was easy to predict. Boise State had Ashton Jeanty, and it led to the Broncos just consistently piling on the points. This year, the battle is more open, but the Broncos have the early edge. Why? Despite losing Jeanty to the NFL, the team still has a major advantage because of quarterback Maddux Madsen.
That’s not to say this is a lock by any means. Memphis has a shot. Liberty has a shot. You could even make an argument for James Madison or Toledo. Boise State, though, opens the year with a small bit of separation over the rest.
11. South Carolina
South Carolina was one of the biggest surprises in college football last season. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers emerged as one of the SEC’s best dual threats, and the Gamecocks won nine games for the first time since 2017.
There was plenty of talk about how the nine-win Gamecocks deserved a playoff spot, but the team came up just short. But if South Carolina goes 9-3 this year, they’re probably in, considering they face six teams that are ranked in the preseason poll, including three top 10 matchups in LSU, Alabama, and Clemson.
10. Oregon
Oregon won’t be as good this season as it was last season simply because of the downgrade from Dillon Gabriel to Dante Moore at quarterback, but the Ducks have a relatively easy schedule, so winning 10 games and making the playoffs again should be an attainable goal.
Really, this feels like a down year as a whole for the Big Ten. Outside of Ohio State and Penn State, the playoff cases for everyone else feel iffy. Oregon and Indiana both have to manage quarterback changes. Michigan has upside, but it needs freshman Bryce Underwood to immediately make an impact. I was really tempted to give this spot to Florida, but it just feels unlikely that we end up with only two Big Ten teams in the field.
9. Iowa State
I can already tell you this: nothing is going to be more fluid this season than the choice for the Big 12’s lone playoff representative. The league has a host of quality teams, but none that stand above the others. Arizona State and Baylor will almost certainly appear here at some point. Other teams could sneak in as well.
At the moment, though, Iowa State looks best-positioned to head to the playoffs. The team made a statement in Week 0, knocking off Kansas State in Ireland, and Rocco Becht is one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks. The running back duo of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III deserves more national attention.
8. Alabama
The first year of the Kalen DeBoer era was a failure by Alabama’s usual standards, as the team failed to hit double-digit wins for the first time since 2007. DeBoer is no Nick Saban.
Still, going 9-4 in your first season after taking over for a legend like Saban is still a strong outcome. Ryan Williams might be the second-best wide receiver in college football, and as long as quarterback Ty Simpson shows that he’s capable of getting the ball to him, the Crimson Tide should roll back into the playoffs.
7. Notre Dame
It feels like virtually every contender made a quarterback change this offseason. For Notre Dame, that means redshirt freshman C.J. Carr taking over under center.
He’ll have a very talented group around him, including running back Jeremiyah Love, and the Fighting Irish are always a good defensive team, but the team is going to go as far as Carr can take it. There are certainly question marks there, leading to a wide range of outcomes for Notre Dame in 2025.
6. Georgia
Carson Beck getting injured late in the season killed the Bulldogs in 2024. The team made the playoffs, but lost in their first playoff game, falling 23-10 to Notre Dame.
The team is sticking with Gunner Stockton at quarterback this year, betting on his continued progression to avoid a repeat of what happened when he started the playoff opener. It’s probably not a bad bet, as Stockton was a very good high school quarterback who has plenty of experience in this system. It also helps that Georgia has talent around him and should be just as good as always on defense.
5. Clemson
Cade Klubnik enters this season as the Heisman favorite after finally breaking out in 2024. He’s shown he can be a threat with his arm and with his legs.
The only thing stopping Clemson from getting a bye in the playoffs? The ACC. The team should easily win the conference this season, but it looks like a potential down year for the conference as a whole. That narrative could drive the team down to the No. 5 seed, even if it has a strong year.
4. Penn State
I’m still not sure how sold I am on Drew Allar, but in a year where so many contenders are making changes under center, the continuity that the Nittany Lions have should make them national title contenders.
Penn State also has an elite running back duo with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Maybe — and the keyword here is maybe — this is the year that the Nittany Lions put it all together.
3. LSU
Garrett Nussmeier has a few turnover issues to clean up, but assuming he can do that, this LSU team is going to be incredibly dangerous.
Weirdly, the concern in Baton Rouge this year might be the defense. Usually a strength of this program, there are plenty of question marks on that side of the field. LSU’s offense might be good enough that those questions don’t matter.
2. Texas
The 2025 Texas Longhorns will go as far as Arch Manning takes them. If he’s a bona fide Heisman contender like so many people believe, then this team will be fighting for a national title in January.
If he’s not? Well, the Longhorns face a very tough schedule this year, starting with a Week 1 matchup against Ohio State. That game alone could decide which team winds up as the No. 1 seed, though Texas has more chances to lose later on as well, including road visits to Florida and Georgia.
1. Ohio State
The defending national champions look well-positioned to repeat, assuming one major thing works out in their favor. That “thing” is Julian Sayin. Trying to repeat as champions with a quarterback who has thrown 12 career passes is a terrifying plan, but the Buckeyes just have so much talent around him, including the nation’s best wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith.
Ohio State also faces a relatively easy schedule. Week 1 against Texas is a scary game, but the Buckeyes host that one. They also host Penn State. Their other two games against preseason-ranked teams are on the road, but should they really be scared of Illinois and Michigan?
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Clemson
- No. 11 South Carolina at No. 6 Georgia
- No. 10 Oregon at No. 7 Notre Dame
- No. 9 Iowa State at No. 8 Alabama
