6 Fantasy Football Sleepers and Draft Values: Matt Donnelly's Late-Round Draft Targets

Matt Donnelly's late-round sleepers, values, and breakout candidates for 2025 fantasy football. His top draft-day steals, including Josh Downs and more.

Every year, the term "sleeper" is used in fantasy circles; it's almost to the point where it doesn't have the same meaning it once did, much like the term "generational talent." 

What is a "sleeper?" It's a player who the fantasy football community deems undervalued, usually based on current draft positions, poor circumstances, or a player coming off an injury we have already moved on from.

However, it would be unwise to sleep on these late-value picks, as the following six players are poised to outperform their current ADP and give fantasy managers a return on their investments in 2025.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

RotoBaller ADP QB20 | Overall ADP 148

Let's not call it a breakout; let's call it a rebirth for Trevor Lawrence in Duval County under the tutelage of Liam Coen.

As far as coaching trees go, Coen branches off from the Sean McVay tree, the same tree that has seen successful coaches in Kevin O'Connell and Zac Taylor.

To his credit, Coen has proved to be a bit of a quarterback whisperer, getting the most out of Will Levis in Kentucky, seeing a resurgence in Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford during his tenure in Los Angeles, and most recently taking a reclamation project in Baker Mayfield and transforming him into a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in Tampa Bay.

Coen has historically fostered strong relationships with his quarterbacks and will again take the same approach with Lawrence, catering his offensive scheme to Lawrence's strengths and simplifying the quarterback's reads and progressions.

Early indications throughout training camp are that it is working, as Lawrence has hooked up with Brian Thomas Jr. on several occasions and consistently completed passes to his secondary weapons in Travis Hunter, Dyami Brown, and Brenton Strange.

Now fully healthy with an improved offensive line (Robert Hainsey and Patrick Mekari), Lawrence is the perfect second quarterback to be drafting this fantasy season.

Fantasy managers assume no risk, and there is plenty of upside in what has the potential to be one of the more explosive offenses this season after a disappointing 2024, where the receivers could have done more to help their franchise signal-caller.

Most incompletions from drops or receiver errors in the end zone:

1. Joe Burrow (9)
t-2. Patrick Mahomes (5)
t-2. Baker Mayfield (5)
t-2. Trevor Lawrence (5)
t-5. Geno Smith (4)
t-5. Sam Darnold (4) pic.twitter.com/cEzgV9fXLx

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 18, 2025

Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants

RotoBaller ADP RB34 | Overall ADP 94

Back in 2010, when running backs were all the rage, one back stood above the crowd. A back who has just one season in which he posted more than 600 yards rushing. In that glorious season, Peyton Hillis churned out 1,177 yards on the ground and 11 touchdowns, numbers he never came close to ever again in his career.

Fast forward to 2025, when the New York Giants selected Cam Skattebo out of Arizona State. Many pegged Skattebo as a back with similar characteristics to the fantasy folk hero.

Skattebo is not the fastest player on the field; he lacks acceleration, but he knows the ball and will be a LeGarrette Blount-esque force down on the goal line after seeing a success rate greater than 75% inside the 10-yard line for the Sun Devils.

Cam Skattebo is gonna have Giants fans thinking Super Bowl

pic.twitter.com/eUxl0s2ogX

— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) July 28, 2025

Despite the lack of speed, Skattebo ran for 1,711 yards (5.8 per attempt) and produced 605 receiving yards on 45 receptions during his final collegiate season. Skattebo even had more 85-plus receiving weeks than Matthew Golden, which is of note as he will be competing for touches in the pass game with a converted college wide receiver in Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tracy was inefficient in the run game, which opens the door for Skattebo to earn a healthy workload on the ground early. If he can get some receiving work along the way, he's going to crush his current ADP. Here's hoping Skattebo doesn't have any more setbacks in training camp.

Jaydon Blue, RB, Dallas Cowboys

RotoBaller ADP RB47 | Overall ADP 130

When you hear reports that Miles Sanders is outperforming Javonte Williams during training camp, that's never a good thing. Fantasy managers would be wise to avoid the Cowboys backfield, but the potential to land a team's lead back at some point becomes worth the risk.

Currently, Jaydon Blue is being drafted in the 11th round, whereas Williams is being selected late in the eighth. During Blue's junior year at Texas, the former Longhorn averaged 5.4 yards per carry and accumulated 1,098 scrimmage yards, including 368 receiving yards on 42 receptions. 

Jaydon Blue with one heck of a one-handed catch on a throw from Joe Milton. pic.twitter.com/s9g7h6UmPa

— Joseph Hoyt (@JoeJHoyt) July 26, 2025

Brian Schottenheimer has already spoken about Blue's "quickness and ability to accelerate through the hole" and has even compared him to Darren Sproles. I suppose watching Williams and Sanders day in and day out will naturally make other backs appear quicker, but that's what has earned Blue early reps with the ones.

Factor in that speed with elite playmaking and a pass-heavy offense, and Blue becomes a screaming draft value and potential league winner. The path to fantasy relevance is clear; Jerry Jones is the only one who can stop Blue's momentum heading into Week 1.

Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts

RotoBaller ADP WR49 | Overall ADP 110

As your WR4, you could do worse than having a pass-catcher who finished with a 23.9% target share and was targeted on 30% of their routes a season ago. Downs would finish last season with an average of 0.30 targets per route run, trailing only Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, and Drake London among pass-catchers to run at least 275 routes.

Last season, Downs saw targets from Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson Sr. and averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game. That said, the splits were very different as Richardson struggled in his limited reps, and Downs' production was not significant as he averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game.

Meanwhile, with Flacco under center, Downs would average an impressive 15.5 fantasy points per contest, which compares favorably to the average points per game production we saw from Ladd McConkey (15.0), Drake London (15.0), Garrett Wilson (15.2), and Terry McLaurin (15.5).

NEW Josh Downs #ReceptionPerception profile is now up on the site 👀

Some highlights:
- 76.7% success rate vs. man coverage (90th percentile)
- 86% success rate vs. zone (92nd percentile)
- 77.1% success rate vs. press (82nd percentile)

Josh Downs, without question, should be… pic.twitter.com/tqGLEjpmr2

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 10, 2025

Let's take Downs at his floor. If Richardson doesn't improve as a passer (indications throughout training camp have been positive), then we can assume that for a 16-game fantasy football schedule, Downs will post at least 171.2 fantasy points.

That number would have been good enough to finish as the WR37 last season, 12 spots higher than his current ADP. With Jones serving as the QB1, Downs could be in a strong season as he has produced several solid slot WRs in the past, including Wan'Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Cleveland Browns

RotoBaller ADP WR81 | Overall ADP 270

Is it time to start drinking the Kool-Aid again regarding Diontae Johnson and his fantasy outlook? It feels as though it's only been a year since we went down this path, only to see fantasy promise and potential met with disappointment and despondency.

Johnson has bounced around over the last year since being traded from Pittsburgh to Carolina before the start of the 2024 season. In 2024, Johnson made stops in Carolina, Houston, and Baltimore for personal reasons and never found a home.

Johnson only caught four passes after Week 6. With an ADP of WR81, this has all the makings of being a true redemption story. After all, anything free is worth saving up for, and he's free where he goes in the 23rd round.

If looking for upside, let's not forget that Johnson was one of the best route runners in the game just a couple of seasons ago during his Steelers tenure. Johnson had three consecutive seasons in which he had 140 targets, and between that 2020 season and the end of the 2022 season, only Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, and Tyreek Hill saw more targets than the 460 that came Johnson's way.

Even before things went sideways in Carolina, Johnson caught 30 of 58 targets over seven games, averaging 11.9 yards per reception, and was the WR20 over that period.

Here's the leaderboard for 2024 target share *if only including plays the receiver was on the field for* pic.twitter.com/7nHVWb9UBT

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) July 22, 2025

It may only be training camp, but Johnson has been creating buzz in Browns camp and making plays. If the attitude is in check, the talent is there, and Joe Flacco loves himself an inside receiver.

Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets

RotoBaller ADP TE31 | Overall ADP 252

Usually, a rookie tight end wouldn't make the list as a deep sleeper or breakout candidate; history has shown that the chances of it happening are marginal. However, recent history suggests otherwise, as Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers have bucked that trend in back-to-back seasons.

So, why Mason Taylor? It's about opportunity. Taylor has a realistic chance to seize the No. 2 role in the Jets' passing game behind Garrett Wilson. Breece Hall and Braelon Allen will be a factor. However, the receiver room, not so much. At this point in their careers, we have a strong indication of who Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, and Tyler Johnson are, and it's no reason for concern.

how practice ended today pic.twitter.com/IWwL864vaI

— New York Jets (@nyjets) July 29, 2025

Taylor is a smooth route runner with a knack for finding open space. Last season, the LSU product caught 55 passes for 546 yards. Last season, in Justin Fields' six starts with the Steelers, Pat Freiermuth was the TE8 in fantasy and averaged 8.6 fantasy points per game. During that stretch in which Fields was under center, Freiermuth averaged 4.2 targets per game, earning a 15.5% target share (TE11) and a first-read target share of 18.2%, ninth highest.

In 2022, Cole Kmet finished as the TE8 after catching 50 balls for 544 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, finishing with a 17.4% target share (eighth best among tight ends).

Kmet followed up that performance by catching 73 passes for 719 yards and six touchdowns the following season, again finishing as the TE8 in fantasy. Once again, Kmet earned a greater than 17% target share while being responsible for 20.7% of the team's receiving market share and 31.6% of the team's receiving touchdown market share, per Fantasy Points Data Suite.

Rookie tight ends don't often find themselves in a favorable position. However, Taylor finds himself with an opportunity not allotted to many and a quarterback who has consistently relied on the tight-end position throughout his career. The TE31, according to RotoBaller's latest ADP numbers, Taylor oozes potential for anyone willing to take a chance on him.

More Fantasy Football Analysis