Early-Season Fantasy Football Sleepers and Values: 5 Running Backs to Target (2025)

July 22, 2025

Quincy Milton III's early-season fantasy football running back values and sleepers for the 2025 NFL season. His top RBs to target, including Aaron Jones.

Fantasy football is a marathon, not a sprint. Many players throughout the NFL will not help your team for the entirety of the season. Some players get off to a hot start before defensive coordinators figure them out. Other players do not have a breakout opportunity until the second half of the season. As such, fantasy football managers are tasked with remaining flexible throughout the season.

Running backs are notorious for fluctuating in value throughout the season. The position is so prone to injuries that you never know who will step up into a substantial role. Additionally, many teams will play their veterans at the beginning of the season to get off to a good start. Those players will often have their workload reduced throughout the season to save them for the playoff run.

Knowing who to bet on for fantasy is a major part of the game. You do not want to fall behind at the beginning of the season. Posting a 3-1 or 4-0 record over the first month of the season can go a long way towards weathering any injury storms that may come your way down the stretch of the season. Let’s dive in and see which running backs can get you off to a good start in 2025.

Aaron Jones - Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones is the poster boy for an early-season running back mold. He is an aging veteran, yet he remains an integral part of his team’s success. Jones often starts the season well, even dating back to his days in Green Bay. His issue has always been his ability to stay on the field.

While Jones may have played a full season in 2024, it was only the second time he had done so in his career. Running backs were uncharacteristically healthy across the board in 2024, suggesting that a regression is likely to follow. While we would never wish for anyone to be injured, we must acknowledge that it is an inherent part of the game.

The Vikings brought in Jordan Mason to be Jones’ backup and or the second option in the committee. Mason may not be the better player yet, but he is far younger and will be important to this backfield. As such, the Vikings may take the approach of expanding Mason’s role as the season progresses so that both running backs can enter the postseason healthy.

🔥 My #1 Fantasy Football Sleeper For 2025: Jordan Mason 🔥

While everyone else is letting Mason fall to rounds 9-10, I’m looking to grab this league-winner in rounds 7-8.

He’s behind Aaron Jones in Minnesota for now — but Jones is clearly on the decline:
📉 Missed 6 games in… pic.twitter.com/Q0Q0cs1iP2

— Pats Props (@PatsPropsGG) July 17, 2025

Jones’ draft price merits the inevitable risk that his value will decline throughout the season. You can always hedge by trading for Mason at the right time or working the waiver wire correctly. However, targeting Jones should pay off, at least in the early portion of the season.

James Conner - Arizona Cardinals

Like Jones, James Conner is an aging running back with a young player behind him. The Cardinals drafted Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Benson is a quality player who many thought would receive more opportunities in 2024. He was primarily relegated to the bench, with Conner taking on a true workhorse role in the offense.

James Conner is being drafted as RB20 (PPR)‼️✅

- Round 5 pick according to ADP data

- W/ 16 games played in 2024, he was RB11 overall 👀

- RB20 or better for every SZN over the past 4 years

- B2B SZNs with 1,000+ rushing yards

- Gets HUGE redzone volume

GREAT RB2 THIS SZN. pic.twitter.com/fQdD7euwSL

— PPRFantasyTips (@PPRFantasyTips) July 18, 2025

Conner also played the first full season of his career in 2024. Before that, he was always a good bet to miss at least a couple of games in a season. Part of the reason why Benson was kept at bay is that Conner was highly productive.

Conner’s production does not seem poised to change in 2025, but if the injury bug comes back to bite him, he could start to cede carries to Benson in an effort to preserve him. With the Cardinals nearing the end of their rebuild, they are now more focused on securing a playoff berth.

Conner will be a value again in his own right, especially over the first month of the season. He is a player you can reap benefits from and turn around and flip for a player destined to lead you to glory during the fantasy playoffs.

Jaylen Warren - Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren is another player with a potential stud behind him on the depth chart. The Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson in Round 3 of the NFL Draft to replace Najee Harris. Warren's pass protection and pass-catching chops will help keep him on the field to begin the year, but Johnson could significantly eat into Warren's workload as the season progresses.

The Steelers have always signaled that they do not want Jaylen Warren to be a feature back. However, when the guy has the ball in his hands, he is electric. As such, the final split between these two backs down the stretch of the season figures to be around the 50/50 split that Warren enjoyed with Harris. If things break correctly for Warren to start the season, then that split could be closer to 60/40 for the first few weeks.

Jaylen Warren is a monster and is working like crazy to have a huge season in 2025! #steelers #NFL #micdropsports #jaylenwarren pic.twitter.com/XySWzNMLvI

— Mic drop sports (@DubJ19273916) July 2, 2025

The fantasy community is already bracing for the shift with Warren being drafted outside the top 30 at his position. The Steelers could find themselves trailing by a few games during the first month of the season due to matchups with Seattle and Minnesota, which will force them to throw the ball. Any game in which the Steelers are throwing the ball will benefit Warren. Expect many dump-offs from quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Warren is unlikely to be a high-end producer for your team, but he could be closer to an RB2 early in the season and ultimately settle into his usual flex value.

Brian Robinson Jr. - Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson Jr. has started each of the last two seasons on a hot streak. That is unlikely to change in 2025. Robinson will have the privilege of running behind an improved offensive line in 2025. Additionally, the offense has a chance to be even better than it was in 2024 with quarterback Jayden Daniels entering Year 2.

The Commanders have a favorable schedule to begin the season. They will face off with the Giants, Packers, Raiders, and Falcons. Each one of those games will be winnable for the team. The Commanders are at least unlikely to be blown out in any of those matchups. With Robinson being the Commanders' ground-and-pound running back, as long as games are close, he will receive the rock.

Brian Robinson Jr. is set for a big 2025 - if he stays healthy 📈🔥 pic.twitter.com/WzMpljnXwE

— Underdog Fantasy - Josh & Hayden (@UDFootballShow) July 11, 2025

Each of those first four defenses is solid, but the Commanders should still have no issues moving the ball up and down the field. As a result, the team will have opportunities in the red zone. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury's favorite play inside the five is to run the ball up the middle. Robinson's touchdown acumen (eight rushing in 2024) caters directly to that tendency.

Robinson is a textbook archetype that can help you start fast as a fantasy manager and deliver significant value in a trade once he slows down. Robinson was performing as a high-end RB2 over the first month of the last two seasons. He ultimately settled in as a back-end RB2 or flex.

We may have reached Robinson's ceiling at this point, and we should not expect his fast starts to remain consistent. However, those fast starts can help you put distance between yourself and your league mates in a hurry.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. - New York Giants

Tyrone Tracy Jr. is not a flashy running back by any means. He may not even finish the season as the starter on his team. However, the Giants' schedule early in the season is conducive to a solid pass-catching running back, such as Tracy, who will receive solid volume.

The Giants open their season with games against the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Chargers. That is a brutal schedule, one that suggests the Giants will be trailing most of the time. Devin Singletary and rookie Cam Skattebo are both in the fold in this backfield, but Tracy was the go-to back in passing situations in 2024.

"I want to be one of the great New York Giants running backs"

Tyrone Tracy Jr. is using a grip strengthener every night to improve his ball control as he looks to take a step forward in his second year pic.twitter.com/lvm9DkiNJV

— Giants Videos (@SNYGiants) June 12, 2025

Tracy earned 53 targets in 2024 despite spending much of the first half of the season as the No. 2 running back to Singletary. While Tracy was nothing special, he figures to be a firm starter to start the season. Singletary looked slower in 2024, and Skattebo is a fourth-round rookie who will need to work his way into the lineup.

Tracy was also solid on the ground in 2024 with a 4.37 yards per carry average. He should do enough in the running game and catch enough passes to deliver solid flex value with upside for more. His long-term outlook, however, is far less clear.

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