Projecting Rest of Season Top 10 Starting Pitchers in 2025 Fantasy Baseball (Week 9)

May 28, 2025

Kevin projects which 10 pitchers will finish the season in the top 10 for the 2025 fantasy baseball season as we head into Week 9 of MLB action.

Welcome to the Week 9 edition of our Top 10 Starting Pitchers series for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Starting pitching is incredibly important to having consistent success with your fantasy lineup, making it one of the bigger things for you to focus on as a fantasy manager.

With Memorial Day in the rearview mirror now, we are starting to truly understand who's real and who's not. Some pitchers who started cold are heating up. Some surprising starters are falling back to earth. Both are reaching their middle ground, and projections are starting to become clearer.

With a third of the season now behind us, let's take a look at this season's current top-ranked pitchers.

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Current Top 10 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball

According to Yahoo's player rankings, here are the top 10 most valuable starting pitchers in standard leagues (as of May 27).

Taking over the current top overall spot is Tarik Skubal. Is it possible that he may be even better than he was last year when he won the AL Cy Young Award? After a complete game, 13 K shutout performance on just 94 pitches, Skubal authored one of the best Madduxes we've seen in quite some time.

THIRTEEN STRIKEOUTS.
BALLGAME.

TARIK SKUBAL 😤 pic.twitter.com/dBH39aJgp0

— MLB (@MLB) May 25, 2025

His ERA sits at 2.49 on the season, just a bit above his 2.39 ERA from 2024. However, his FIP (1.96) and xFIP (2.16) suggest we could be seeing even better things out of the southpaw soon. He's now the odds-on favorite to repeat as the AL Cy Young winner, and that doesn't feel like a mistake. He's going to continue performing at incredibly high levels for the rest of the season.

Fellow AL southpaw Garrett Crochet is very likely to find himself in the Cy Young discussion alongside Skubal at the end of the season. Maybe he and his 2.04 ERA have been a victim of bad luck from the Red Sox offense, as you'd expect him to have a better record than 4-4.

MLB Notables 5/26:

- Colt Keith went 2-2 w/a double.
- Jarren Duran went 2-4 w/a double.
- Garrett Crochet went 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 K's - 2.04 ERA.
- Jackson Chourio hit 413 ft HR w/EV 106 MPH.
- Jameson Taillon went 6.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 7 K's.

Mini-thread 👇 pic.twitter.com/1nwN43a6QZ

— LouisAnalysis (@LouisAnalysis) May 27, 2025

Opposite to the positive regression Skubal has coming, Crochet may be headed the opposite way. His 2.70 FIP and 2.91 xFIP tell us that his 2.04 ERA is likely to rise. But a sub-3.00 xFIP is a welcome sight any day. He'll continue to drive home plenty of fantasy value.

After a tough start in Tampa, we see Hunter Brown dropping quite a bit. He gave up five ER and struck out just four batters in five innings. It was the first time this season he hadn't recorded an out in the sixth inning and broke a streak of five consecutive games with exactly nine strikeouts.

Similar to Crochet, his 2.04 ERA is buoyed by a 2.77 xFIP. So, more negative regression is likely to hit the 26-year-old, but he's still going to be the clear-cut Astros ace. He'll look for redemption against Tampa as he's the scheduled starter for Houston's series finale on Sunday, June 1st.

Kris Bubic finds his way into the top 10 for the second straight week. After a seven-inning, nine-strikeout performance against the Twins, he just keeps finding ways to not only limit hitters and get outs, but get outs efficiently in terms of pitch count.

Kris Bubic continues his dominant season.

7 IP
2 H
1 ER
2 BB
9 Kpic.twitter.com/NuUlyoFZUp

— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) May 25, 2025

The bigger question is how long he can stave off negative regression. With a 3.34 xFIP, that's a decent-sized jump from his current 1.45 ERA. He's going to continue providing the Royals and fantasy managers with value, but it may not stay at the elite level it's currently at.

In a similar boat, Max Fried continues to defy the models. He recorded the win in his most recent start at Coors Field against the Rockies, striking out seven in just over seven innings of work. We've mentioned multiple times now that Fried is expecting negative regression as his 1.29 ERA has a 3.19 xFIP we need to consider.

Old Faces, New Places

Max Fried: 1.29 ERA, Cy Young favorite
Kyle Tucker: 12 HR, 14 SB, leading Cubs
Alex Bregman: .938 OPS but pulled hammy 🙁
Nick Pivetta: 2.72 ERA, 28.1 K%, late bloomer
Gleyber Torres .896 OPS, elite plate discipline
Jorge Polanco: 10 HR, .893 OPS, M's good pic.twitter.com/1lyEK3KKSy

— James Schiano (@James_Schiano) May 27, 2025

Part of what's driving that xFIP to be higher is Fried's walk rate. He allowed just one walk on Saturday, just the second time in his last eight starts that he didn't have multiple walks. If the walks stay down, and he can raise his K/9 to a number at or above 9.00, then he'll have more staying power in the top 10.

Jesus Luzardo rounds out the top 10 after a seven-inning, 10-strikeout performance against the A's. It didn't come without some troubles, though, as he gave up three runs on nine hits. It still marked Luzardo's second straight start with 10 strikeouts.

Jesús Luzardo appears headed for his first All-Star Game selection.

Ranks among NL starters

WAR: 2.4 (first)
ERA: 2.15 (second)
FIP: 2.25 (second)
HR/9: 0.40 (second)
K’s: 77 (fourth)
IP: 67 (sixth)

pic.twitter.com/H23EBOYc2Q

— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) May 25, 2025

With a 2.15 ERA and a 2.99 xFIP, Luzardo is still on the negative regression train. But as we've mentioned with some of the pitchers above, that's still a very solid regression point to where he's still going to bring more than enough value to your fantasy team.

Projected Top 10 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball

Plenty will change between now and October, though. Here's how I think the top 10 will look by the end of the season. I based these rankings on where each pitcher stands now, what the underlying metrics indicate about their performance, and who will likely have sustained success over the next five months.

My rest-of-season projections change weekly, but here's where they stand for now.

Skubal takes over the projection as our top pitcher. With how dominant he has been and positive regression coming for him, there's no reason to think he won't keep up his upper-echelon production for Tigers fans and fantasy managers alike.

Zack Wheeler comes in at the two-spot. His three-hit, eight-strikeout outing against the A's this weekend just exemplifies what he's going to give you nearly every outing. With a 2.42 ERA and a 2.51 xFIP, we're getting true results out of the 34-year-old who just may win the NL Cy Young Award this year for the first time in his career.

make that 6K's for Zack Wheeler on a 96mph fastball #Phillies #RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/wqdPd13KX8

— Lucasparmenter23 (@Lucasparmenter0) May 24, 2025

Yoshinobu Yamamoto comes in at number four behind Crochet. Yamamoto has started to get things straightened out over his last two starts, giving up just two earned runs while recording 16 K in 13 IP against Arizona and Cleveland. His 1.97 ERA puts him in the NL Cy Young conversation, and he'll be there with Wheeler and Paul Skenes at the end of the season.

YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO. pic.twitter.com/GkwqjAWFko

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) May 21, 2025

Speaking of NL Cy Young contenders, Logan Webb ranks fifth for us. A subpar outing against the Royals dropped Webb down in the current top 10 after he gave up 10 hits and three ER in just four innings. It was his shortest outing this season. But his 2.67 ERA is paired with a 2.37 xFIP, so he's got better days in front of him.

Paul Skenes comes in at number six. Is he heating up now? After another strong outing against Milwaukee, where he notched eight strikeouts in six innings, he's starting to get back to his normal ways. But a 3.07 xFIP to go along with his 2.36 ERA tells us negative regression is coming for him if he can't keep his strikeouts up. That and the Pirates offense are all that can hold him back.

Paul Skenes, Frisbee 87mph Sweeper. 🥏 pic.twitter.com/kYHjYtVJRr

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 23, 2025

Carlos Rodon comes in at number eight. He gets his spot in the top 10 ahead of fellow Yankee southpaw Max Fried, given his strikeout rate brings more fantasy value. Walks will be his biggest enemy going forward, but if he can keep those under control, he'll be solid.

Nathan Eovaldi comes in at number nine. His six-inning, one-run performance against the Yankees on Thursday was one in which he was given the loss. He certainly didn't deserve it, as he's been a near lock for six innings and seven strikeouts every start. That's his third start where he's given up one ER or fewer and wasn't credited with a win. Similar to Skenes, the Rangers offense is Eovaldi's biggest fantasy enemy.

A moment for this Nathan Eovaldi strikeout sequence against Aaron Judge😮‍💨#AllForTX pic.twitter.com/fZGuPER28h

— Victory+ (@victoryplustv) May 22, 2025

MacKenzie Gore finishes out our top 10 list. After getting roughed up in Baltimore, Gore righted the ship on Friday with a six-inning, nine-strikeout performance against San Francisco, where he gave up just one ER. An inept offensive performance resulted in Gore getting the loss, but he did what he needed to do to get back on track.

Who do you think is missing from the list, RotoBallers? Let me know! Reach out to me here on X and share your thoughts.

Thanks for reading, and good luck the rest of this fantasy baseball season!

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