Projecting Rest of Season Top 10 Starting Pitchers in 2025 Fantasy Baseball (Week 5)

May 2, 2025

Kevin projects which ten pitchers will finish the season in the top 10 for the 2025 fantasy baseball season, as we head into Week 5 of MLB action.

Welcome back to the Week 5 edition of our Top 10 Starting Pitchers series for fantasy baseball and the 2025 season. Starting pitching is important to focus on in fantasy baseball as it can be the foundation of your roster, helping you be more consistent on a week-to-week basis.

Some pitchers coming into this season with high expectations have faltered a bit, while others have been surprising up-and-comers. Soon enough, things will all even out, but some of those unexpectedly hot starters may just keep things going for the rest of the season.

With a little over a month of the season in the books, let's take a look at this season's current top-ranked pitchers.

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Current Top 10 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball

According to Yahoo's player rankings, here are the top 10 most valuable starting pitchers in standard leagues (as of May 1).

Garrett Crochet tops the rankings this week after dominating in Boston. Had it not been for a five-walk performance against the Mariners, his numbers may look even better than they already do. His BB/9 of 3.7 is higher than last season's mark of 2.0, but shows an area of improvement for the southpaw.

MacKenzie Gore stays in the top 10 after another strong performance against Philadelphia. Gore was slightly more tame in the strikeout department but still notched six Ks. With a 2.39 xFIP to go along with his 3.51 ERA, Gore has a clear path to positive regression that he'll continue to head down.

MacKenzie Gore's 2Ks in the 2nd. 🔨 pic.twitter.com/nFDw6QVIoi

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 7, 2025

Michael King makes an appearance in the top ten this week. With a strong 4-1 record and a 29 percent K% for the third time in four years, King will continue to be a productive member of the Padres' staff. But a .258 BABIP and a 3.33 xFIP point towards some negative regression heading his way, though it shouldn't be all that detrimental.

Michael King, Unfair 94mph Two Seamer. 😳

2 FEET of Run! pic.twitter.com/wLrrZqJaNE

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 30, 2025

Nathan Eovaldi has popped in this week, too, with a strong 0.773 WHIP. The veteran starter has just a 1.8 percent walk percentage, sharply minimizing the amount of damage teams can do. If he can continue to keep his control, he should continue to hold substantial fantasy value as a lengthy innings-eater.

Hunter Brown continues his reign as Houston's new apparent ace, dazzling with a 1.22 ERA and a 2.56 xFIP. Strikeouts are up, walks are down, and he's not allowing many home runs. It's time to consider that his hot start may stay throughout the rest of the season.

Hunter Brown, Filthy 88mph Changeup. 😷

8th K pic.twitter.com/khjC7sWBxJ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 27, 2025

The rest of the list features some familiar names that should have plenty of staying power throughout the rest of the season, including Zack Wheeler, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Logan Webb. It may be surprising to see Carlos Rodon at number two overall, but the lefty has returned to a 30 percent K% again. Walks may be an issue for him, but if those get under control, he'll have staying power inside the top 10.

Projected Top 10 Starting Pitchers for Fantasy Baseball

Plenty will change between now and October, though. Here's how I think the top 10 will look by the end of the season. I based these rankings on where each pitcher stands now, what the underlying metrics indicate about their performance, and who will likely have sustained success over the next five months.

My rest-of-season projections change weekly, but here's where they stand for now.

As with last week, Yamamoto is the No. 1 projected pitcher for the rest of the season. While a 2.23 xFIP points to negative regression from his 1.06 ERA, it's still an incredibly impressive xFIP. Tie that in with his 11.38 K/9, higher than any mark he's held in Japan or in the States, with the Dodgers' offense propelling him to more wins, and it's an easy formula that shoots him to the top.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Gorgeous 79mph Curveball. 😍🪀 pic.twitter.com/ECXtV8QLQT

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 26, 2025

Paul Skenes comes in at number five. The LSU product has fantastic expected stats, such as his 1.94 xERA, which shows he'll hold teams in check as often as possible. From a fantasy perspective, his strikeout numbers are down this season, and the Pirates' offense doesn't exactly inspire confidence in racking up wins.

If either of those gets corrected, he'll end up higher, but odds would tell you it's more likely the strikeouts get figured out first.

Gore cracks his way into the top 10 list this week. The positive regression heading his way is too hard to ignore. The gap between his ERA and xFIP is impressive, while he also has a .341 BABIP that ideally should regress to .300 or so. There's a chance it stays in a similar range, as he posted a .340 BABIP in 2024, but we generally expect a lower number for most pitchers.

That positive regression, with similar strikeout numbers, makes Gore an incredibly formidable pitcher in Washington.

Jesus Luzardo stays in our top 10 this week, coming in with a 2.70 xERA that ranks in the 83rd percentile. The lefty has some negative regression coming, so it may not be as pretty as it has been, but it doesn't hurt having that Phillies offense behind you to help get those precious wins.

His strikeout percentage of 28.3 percent is a bounce-back from the 21.2 percent he held with the Marlins last season and gives him staying power in the top 10.

Jesús Luzardo has a 1.4 WAR over his first six starts as a Phillie. According to @fangraphs, the only pitcher in baseball with a higher mark this season is Paul Skenes at 1.5.

pic.twitter.com/xpmPyO4xg6

— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) April 26, 2025

Tarik Skubal stays in our top 10 as well. As he creeps closer to the current top 10 rankings, the main difference Skubal is looking for this season is a need for more groundballs. His 38.7% ground-ball rate is a drop from last season's 45.7%. In return, he's seeing more line drives, which are leading to a .233 batting average compared to last season's .200 batting average.

The grounders are all that's missing in getting him back into Cy Young form.

Tarik Skubal strikes out the side and has 5 strikeouts through 2 innings 🔥 pic.twitter.com/R3utpXdKzd

— MLB (@MLB) April 27, 2025

Brown now jumps into our top 10 after the stats point toward him simply not going away anytime soon. A couple of mainstays getting injured last week helps his cause, but even with negative regression coming, the 26-year-old and his 29.9 strikeout percentage will continue to drive plenty of fantasy value.

Speaking of injuries, both Logan Gilbert and Cole Ragans suffered injuries this week that affect their potential rankings. Last week, we hit on the positive regression heading Ragans's way, which should still be the case once he returns from injury. One has to hope his groin injury helps explain why he couldn't hold down the 2025 Colorado Rockies.

Gilbert has an elbow sprain that landed him on the 15-day IL. The elbow sprain is a much more delicate injury than Ragans' groin injury, and there will need to be a much more cautious approach to Gilbert's innings going forward. He'll be a strong fantasy option when active, but a franchise arm like his needs to be watched over very closely.

Who do you think is missing from the list, RotoBallers? Let me know! Reach out to me here on X and share your thoughts.

Thanks for reading, and good luck the rest of this fantasy baseball season!

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