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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for the Super Bowl of 2024-25. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for the Super Bowl of the 2024-2025 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you who won a championship or reached the title game!
For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024-2025; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores, which are calculated by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat is that limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players could skew the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for the Super Bowl sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The WR/CB matchups for all the offenses are below.
Super Bowl WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores, though it's a small list with fewer teams.
Super Bowl WR/CB Matchups: Eagles WR
The Chiefs' pass defense used the highest rate of two-high safety coverages in the playoffs, tying them with the Packers. That's similar to the Chiefs ranking second in two-high coverages in the regular season. They allowed the second-lowest fantasy points per dropback (0.36) in the regular season compared to 0.50 in the playoffs when using two-high looks.
Regardless, we know the Chiefs will lean on the two-high safety coverages, likely daring the Eagles to beat them via the passing game. Dallas Goedert leads the Eagles with a 22 percent target per route rate, slightly ahead of DeVonta Smith (21 percent) and A.J. Brown (20 percent) when facing two-high safeties.
Brown led the team in yards per route run at 2.22 against two high looks, with Smith close behind at 2.01 and Goedert down at 1.19. Besides two high safety coverage, the Chiefs use the sixth highest rate of Cover 4, with one goal to limit deep passing plays.
Interestingly, the Chiefs' defense allowed the eighth-highest rate of deep throws of 20 or more yards downfield at 13 percent, though they allow the 20th-ranked completion rate on pass attempts of 20 or more yards.
However, it might be strength versus strength because Jalen Hurts ranked eighth in adjusted yards per attempt (15.51) and second in fantasy points per dropback (1.27), yet 21st in completion rate over expected when attempting passes of 20 or more yards among 34 qualified quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks.
That's especially notable since Brown leads the team with a deep target rate of 20 or more yards at 16.5 percent. Smith trailed Brown at 12.4 percent and Grant Calcaterra in third at 10 percent.
That said, we shouldn't avoid Smith and Brown in DFS or playoff contest lineups because they've been two of the most efficient receivers in fantasy points per route run. Smith has the best-projected matchup against Chamarri Conner, assuming Trent McDuffie lines up more often against Brown.
Conner has been the Chiefs' second-best corner in allowing 1.38 yards per coverage snap in the slot (No. 31), behind McDuffie at 1.17 (No. 23) out of 42 qualified cornerbacks. That might present a more challenging matchup for Smith, though the Chiefs should focus attention on Brown with potential double coverage.
When teams use Cover 4, they can be vulnerable to shorter passes, which likely bodes well for Goedert. That makes Goedert a sneaky matchup to target against the Chiefs, with most of the tight end attention on Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs' run defense ranked 17th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt in Weeks 10-18, suggesting Saquon Barkley and Goedert might be the focal points if the Chiefs limit the explosive pass plays.
Super Bowl WR/CB Matchups: Chiefs WR
During the playoffs, the Eagles' pass defense ran zone coverage 69 percent of the time while allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per dropback against the zone. That's similar to their season-long defensive data, with the Eagles using zone 69.9 percent of the time (No. 12), with the sixth fantasy points per dropback (0.33).
The Eagles use a high rate of Cover 4 at 19.5 percent (No. 3) and Cover 6, at 17.4 percent (No. 1). Among receivers with 25 routes against Cover 4 and 6, DeAndre Hopkins led the team in target rate (24 percent), with Noah Gray (21 percent) and Kelce (19 percent) trailing Hopkins.
Gray leads the team in yards per route run at 2.36, with Hopkins close behind (2.29) and Kelce in third (1.49) against Cover 4 and 6. When we lowered the route threshold to 10 routes, Rashee Rice led the team in yards per route run (5.32), with Peyton Hendershot (2.36) tying Gray versus Cover 4 and 6.
We mention that because Xavier Worthy had terrible numbers against Cover 4 and 6. That's evident in Worthy's 13 percent target rate and 1.44 yards per route versus those coverages. We noted earlier that Cover 4 tends to limit explosive plays downfield, but they can be vulnerable to shorter and underneath targets.
Worthy leads the Chiefs with a deep target rate of 20 or more yards at 17.3 percent, ahead of Hopkins (13.8 percent) as the only two pass catchers with a deep target rate above 10 percent. Worthy is one of the receivers that could beat Cover 4 and 6. However, we've seen the Chiefs scheme up touches for Worthy in the short areas of the field or on crossing routes, giving him the floor-and-ceiling outcomes.
On paper, we're projecting rookie against the rookie, with Worthy facing Quinyon Mitchell. Mitchell allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points per dropback and the 11th-lowest yards per route run. He allowed the seventh-highest forced incompletion rate (21 percent) and the seventh-most pass breakups.
The wildcard in the Chiefs' offense might be Marquise Brown, who ranked 10th in yards per route run (2.95) and first in target rate (47 percent) against zone coverages. Unfortunately, Brown's limited sample leads to question marks with 19 routes and nine targets against zone defenses.
The Eagles ranked third in adjusted yards before contact per attempt in Weeks 10-18, suggesting the Chiefs may need to lean on the passing game. Interestingly, the Eagles defense allowed the 20th-ranked pressure rate (28.5 percent), suggesting they don't tend to pressure the quarterback.
Brown will face the Eagles' primary slot cornerback Cooper DeJean. He allowed the eighth-lowest yards per coverage snap. That's notable because DeJean ranks 29th in fantasy points per route and 27th in yards per route run versus zone coverage.
Brown looks like the wild card since the prop betting lines have him with an over/under for receiving yards at 40.5. He surpassed that mark in Weeks 16-17 and the Divisional Round but totaled 35 yards in the AFC Championship game against the Bills. The Chiefs' offense faces an uphill battle, with Worthy and Kelce being the focal point of the passing offense in the Super Bowl.
Best of luck this week in the Super Bowl matchups!
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