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Rob looks at four quarterbacks with appealing ADPs that fantasy managers should be targeting for the 2024 fantasy football redraft season.
It wasn't all that long enough since the prevailing opinion in fantasy football leagues was to wait on quarterback. There are so many good ones and none of them are all that much better than the rest, so why draft one early? Those days are gone. Quarterbacks are putting up bigger and bigger numbers each season and having one of the top-3 in your fantasy lineup will be a major benefit to your fantasy roster.
Quarterbacks continue to be drafted earlier and earlier. For the ones at the top, there's a good reason for it. Their weekly potential can flip a fantasy matchup. In this article, we'll identify four quarterbacks fantasy managers should be buying this season. These four signal-callers can be found all over your draft. Top-5, backend QB, mid-QB2, and backend QB2. All of them are buys and all of them have a good chance to outplay their current positional ADPs.
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Patrick Mahomes: QB3, ADP 36
From 2018 to 2022, Mahomes had a 6.5% touchdown rate and an 8.1 yard per attempt (YPA) average. In 2023, he finished with a 4.5% touchdown rate and a 7.0 YPA average, both career lows. In fact, his lowest touchdown rate before 2023 was 5.4%, and his lowest YPA was 7.4.
If Mahomes had just performed at his worst level before 2023, he would’ve had an extra five touchdowns and 235 yards. That would’ve added 29.4 fantasy points to his total or around 1.8 PPG. Had Mahomes performed at his 2018-2022 career average, he would’ve had 12 more touchdowns and 653 yards. This would’ve added 74.1 fantasy points, or 4.6 PPG, to his total. 4.6 more PPG would’ve taken Mahomes’ 2023 PPG average of 18.4 to 23.0, which would’ve been right in line with QB2 Jalen Hurts (23.1).
4. PATRICK MAHOMES
While the league's best player posted a 4.5% TD rate in 2023 (above the league mean for the season), that mark was 1.9% below his career rate entering the season.
He was a dink-and-dunk machine in 2023 and Chiefs receivers struggled to secure the ball,…
— Matt Okada (@MattOkada) June 5, 2024
Last year, his starting receivers in Week 1 were Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. This year, it’ll be Rashee Rice (possible suspension), Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown. In five seasons, Toney and Moore have combined for 1,254 yards and four touchdowns in 62 games. In Hollywood’s last two seasons, he had 1,283 yards and seven touchdowns in 26 games.
Patrick Mahomes was already alone at the top of the quarterback hierarchy. Then he decided to become an unstoppable quick game passer for good measure.
For all the ups and downs the Chiefs offense had last year, Mahomes himself was almost perfect.https://t.co/4ZTupymc7x pic.twitter.com/zI3xUKK6W3
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) June 24, 2024
In 2023, MVS played 618 snaps, while Rice played 622. Rice had 102 targets, 79 receptions, 938 yards, and seven touchdowns, while MVS had 42 targets, 21 receptions, 315 yards, and one touchdown. We haven’t even touched on first-round pick Xavier Worthy yet. Yeah, we’re buying Patrick Mahomes.
Kyler Murray: QB10, ADP 68
Murray's current ADP is outrageous and provides a tremendous buying opportunity for fantasy managers. Since his second season in the NFL, all Murray has done is finish as a top-10 quarterback in fantasy points per game. As a rookie in 2019, Murray finished as QB12 with an 18.8 PPG average. That year, his leading receiver was 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald, who finished with just over 800 yards. Arizona acquired DeAndre Hopkins the following year, and Murray exploded on the fantasy scene. He averaged 25.8 PPG that year, first among quarterbacks who played at least six games. That was the last year that Murray played with a 1,000-yard receiver. However, that hasn't stopped him from being an excellent fantasy asset.
Reminder 🚨
A healthy Kyler Murray is a top 5 fantasy football QB 📈
His 2019 and 2020 seasons he averaged:
♦️550 pass attempts
♦️3,846 passing yards
♦️681 rushing yards
♦️23 Passing TDs, 7 rushing TDs
♦️QB6 and QB3 👀2024 outlook:
🔹Another year removed from ACL injury,… pic.twitter.com/yoUkdDsyt4— Lobo (@LobosFFDen) May 17, 2024
He tied as the QB3 with a 22.6 PPG average in 2021 and was QB7 in 2022. He tore his ACL late that season, causing him to miss the fantasy football playoffs and the beginning of the 2023 season. Despite coming off a major injury, Murray came back in 2024 and continued to be a top-10 quarterback. He finished with a 19.1 PPG average, good for QB9. From 2022-2023, Arizona did not have a single pass-catcher finish with more than 825 yards. Since Murray came into the league, he has had one season with a 1,000-yard season and hasn't had a receiver with more than 800 yards in the past two years.
Since Murray's rookie season, Trey McBride, Arizona's leading receiver last season, had the fourth-most yards of any pass-catcher Murray has ever played with. Marvin Harrison Jr. is likely to become Murray's second-best pass-catcher he's ever played with this season. It's not a stretch to say that Harrison and McBride will be the best duo of pass-catchers Murray has ever played with. This season, he'll also be a full season removed from his torn ACL injury in 2022, and the entire team will enter its second season with offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. Despite that, he has an ADP worse than any of his PPG finishes since his rookie season. Make it make sense.
Trevor Lawrence: QB17, ADP 103
We will need to have a real, honest discussion about Lawrence. By now, you’ve likely seen all these pictures of Lawrence’s first 50 starts compared to Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, and Gardner Minshew II. It’s all just noise and clearly with a narrative-pushing purpose-driven engagement rather than honest discussion. So, let’s have an honest debate, shall we?
The truth is, Lawrence didn’t have a chance during his rookie season. His coach, Urban Meyer, is in the running for one of the worst NFL coaches in history. He was fired midseason, creating a toxic working environment where everyone struggled. His No. 1 receiver that year was the 31-year-old Marvin Jones Jr. His second leading receiver was Laviska Shenault Jr. Shenault is on his third team in five years and could very well find himself unemployed by the time the 2024 season starts. He has 1,551 receiving yards in four seasons, roughly 388 per season. His No. 3 receiver was Laquon Treadwell. Treadwell has 1,242 yards in eight seasons and has been on five teams. He's worse than Shenault!
Indeed, Danny Dimes, Mac Jones, and Minshew didn’t have a great support system in their rookie seasons. The critical part is what’s happened since then. Yes, Lawrence was terrible as a rookie. Yes, he’s got a pretty darn good reason for that. However, in years two and three, Lawrence has thrown 4,000+ yards and 21+ touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. Danny Dimes has never had more than 3,250 yards in a season. Mac Jones has never had more than 3,810 yards in a season and hasn’t been over 3,000 since his rookie season. Minshew has never been over 3,325. The fact is these are bad, lazy, and disingenuous comparisons, and what's worse, those making them know it. If we compare Lawrence’s second and third seasons, Dak Prescott seems to be a perfect comparison. How do you feel about Prescott? Please take a look at the statistics for their second and third seasons.
Let’s switch gears and talk fantasy football for a second because, in 2022, Lawrence finished as the QB12 with an 18.3 PPG average. He did that despite finishing 18th in touchdown rate. He was seventh in pass attempts, eighth in red zone pass attempts, and eighth in expected passing touchdowns, but he finished just 18th in touchdown rate. His expected passing touchdowns were 30.5, but he finished with just 25. Lawrence left some meat on the bone and still finished as a top-12 quarterback.
This past season many people have put together a mix tape of all the near-miss touchdowns between Lawrence and his pass-catchers. In the particular one below, there are 15. Some are Lawrence’s fault for waiting a bit too long. Some are clear drops. Some of the receivers failed to get two feet down. But if just half of them go Lawrence’s way, he has seven more touchdowns and would finish with 28. If just 26% went his way, he’d have four more touchdowns and finish with 25. Take a look for yourself…
Trevor Lawrence near miss touchdowns pic.twitter.com/3tl8vK3VT5
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 9, 2024
We’re going to stay in 2023 for a little bit longer. Lawrence was banged up last season. He played through multiple ailments. On October 15, he suffered a knee bruise. On December 4, he sustained a high ankle sprain. On December 17, he was placed in concussion protocol. On December 24, he sprained his A/C joint in his throwing shoulder. On top of his injuries, Christian Kirk missed five games, and Zay Jones missed eight. It’s fairly reasonable to expect all of those injuries to impact performance. However, Lawrence still looked fantastic on film! The box score doesn’t tell the whole story because of the dropped passes, but look at this below…
Trevor Lawrence charting profile is live!
Lawrence is the latest young quarterback to cash in with a big-time deal, but were the Jaguars right to give him that kind of money?
(Yes. Obviously yes. Why was this ever even sort of a question?)https://t.co/1ybCqrhKfe pic.twitter.com/CL7UQXGD8u
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) June 18, 2024
Looking forward to 2024, Lawrence may have the best collection of pass-catchers he’s ever had. Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram, and Gabriel Davis are a fantastic foursome, and their skills complement each other well. Davis and Thomas will work the intermediate to deep part of the field, while Kirk and Engram work in the short to intermediate part. Lawrence will have plenty of options. They’ve also upgraded their offensive line with the free-agent signing of center Mitch Morse.
Lawrence also has sneaky rushing upside. Since 2022, he ranks eighth among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 630 and fourth in rushing touchdowns with nine. Along with the bonus of rushing value, Lawrence has also thrown the fourth-most passes since 2022. He’s an above-average rushing quarterback with elite passing volume. He’s healthy. He’s received upgrades in his offensive line and his pass-catchers.
Trevor Lawrence is due for a massive regression to the mean.
On all throws from a QB 10+ yards downfield to a receiver deemed open (per @FantasyPtsData charting)
Trevor Lawrence ranked:
9th in accurate throw rate
29th in completion percentage https://t.co/lCLquYaSLR— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 14, 2024
On top of that, he’s due for some major positive regression in the touchdown department and his deep ball completion percentage, as evidenced above. No quarterback has been hurt by dropped passes more than Lawrence in the past few years. Consider for a second, what if Lawrence’s touchdown and dropped passes bad luck regresses to the mean? Now, take one tiny step further: what if Lawrence’s bad luck regarding touchdowns and dropped passes doesn’t just revert to average luck but good luck? What if the touchdowns run hot?
No QB suffered more because of drops last season than Trevor Lawrence 📉 https://t.co/UZW0MBSqwX pic.twitter.com/mESqZsQCuZ
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) June 14, 2024
Last year, 61.6% of offensive touchdowns were via the pass. 38.4% were via the run. In 2023, Jacksonville had just 56.4% of their touchdowns scored via the pass. There are countless examples to buy into Lawrence throwing more touchdowns in 2024. The best part, he's already shown us what he's capable of. From Weeks 10-17 in 2022, he averaged 21.0 PPG and was QB5 during this stretch. From Weeks 11-17 this past season, he averaged 21.5 PPG and was QB6. Due to injuries and bad luck, it hasn't all been put together for one season, but the upside is there. He's shown it to us. It was just in 2022 that he finished as the QB12. Fantasy managers have a significant buying opportunity.
Geno Smith: QB24, ADP 146
Not surprisingly, Smith fell back to Earth after an incredible 2022 season, which saw him finish as the QB8 with an 18.7 PPG average. Smith finished as the QB22 this past season, and his PPG average fell to 15.4. That's not ideal, but let's dive deeper into this. Tackle Charles Cross missed three games last year, guard Phil Haynes missed nine, and tackle Abraham Lucas missed 11. That lack of continuity upfront caused many more issues, and Smith was under more pressure this past season than in 2022. A healthier season from his front five blockers should help Smith's consistency and performance in 2024.
"Geno Smith was not the problem in this offense last year." @minakimes shared a shocking stat on Geno Smith 👀 pic.twitter.com/iJoXjYKIzJ
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) May 24, 2024
From a per-game standpoint, Smith averaged just two fewer completions and 10 fewer passing yards on essentially the same number of pass attempts per game. Smith scored far fewer points for two reasons. His touchdown rate fell from 5.2% to 4.0%, and his rushing yards fell by 211. However, despite that dip in scoring, Smith's final 2023 ranking is still above his current 2024 ADP.
Seattle did lose their offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, which could be what is factoring in Smith's cheap cost. The organization replaced him with Ryan Grubb, former offensive coordinator for the Washington Huskies. Based on the offenses he ran at Washington, Seattle might implement a more pass-heavy offense than the one they ran last year when they finished 17th. What Grubb also did at Washington was attack defenses vertically and down-field with regularity. A bigger emphasis on the downfield passing attack would also be a change from last year. Smith finished 26th out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks in intended air yards per pass attempt with a 7.0-yard average.
With a potentially more pass-heavy and down-field attacking system, a healthy offensive line, and all three of his receivers returning, Smith's current ADP is very appealing. Quarterback is a very deep position, and it's hard to imagine Smith finishing any higher than QB16 given the strength at the position, but he's a solid bet to outplay his current positional ranking.
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