RADIO
Super Bowl LVIII appears to be a close matchup between two historic franchises. The Kansas City Chiefs have surged during the AFC playoffs, winning two road games and a home one to earn the opportunity to win their fourth Super Bowl title and third in five seasons. Another Vince Lombardi Trophy would keep the Chiefs on a path to challenging the New England Patriots for recognition as an all-time dynasty.
The San Francisco 49ers are looking to end a championship drought that has lasted for nearly 30 years. With a Super Bowl LVIII victory, the Niners can tie the Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers for the most all-time Super Bowl titles with six. San Francisco has 38 postseason wins, the most among all NFL clubs.
So who will prevail in this second Super Bowl meeting between the two teams? I compare each roster by position as a route to determine which side has the better chance of taking the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday night.
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Super Bowl LVIII: Who Has The Edge?
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 with 11 TDs and 0 INTs in his past six playoff starts. He has won 14 of 17 career postseason starts. He finished with 27 TD passes during the regular season after registering three consecutive campaigns of 37-plus TDs, and he only had four TD passes in three AFC playoff games this season, with a high yardage game of 262. But his playmaking has been timely and Mahomes has been taking good care of the ball with no postseason interceptions. The strong Kansas City defense has allowed him to operate more judiciously, knowing he will get the ball back if drives fail. Yet, Mahomes remains as dangerous as ever when it counts most.
Brock Purdy has continued to exceed expectations, as he became the fourth QB ever with four playoff wins in his first two seasons with the victory in the NFC Championship Game. Purdy passed for 315 yards and rushed for 48 as he led San Francisco’s second comeback win of the postseason against Detroit. He ranked third in TD passes (31) and fifth in passing yards (4,280) during the regular season. Purdy continues to drown out his critics more every week, and a quality performance in Super Bowl LVIII might silence the naysayers for good.
Brock Purdy's 2023 season and Drew Brees' 2009 season are almost identical 😳 @gmfb pic.twitter.com/kdITS1Dd3l
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) February 7, 2024
Read more here on why I believe Purdy has nearly reached the elite tier of NFL QBs heading into Super Bowl LVIII.
Advantage: Chiefs -- Giving the edge to Mahomes is certainly no knock on Purdy, but he wins with less playmaking support and his body of work also beats any QB he faces.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco has rushed for three TDs in this season’s playoffs so far. He has 75+ scrimmage yards in each of his six career playoff games and a TD in seven straight games overall. Pacheco rushed for 76 yards in Super Bowl LVII. He is a relentless runner who exhibits outstanding sheer determination. He will become the first RB since 1978 to start in two consecutive Super Bowls, so playing on the biggest stage of the season won’t bother Pacheco. He was a seventh-round pick in the NFL draft last season, taken 11 slots before Purdy.
Christian McCaffrey is finally playing in his first Super Bowl, adding to a growing legacy as the best RB in pro football. He has no equal as a dual threat, as McCaffrey led the NFL in scrimmage yards (2,023) and rushing yards (1,459) and tied for first in scrimmage TDs (21) during the regular season. He has rushed for two TDs in each NFC playoff game and can tie for the second-most rushing TDs in a single postseason with two more. He has averaged 130 scrimmage yards in this season’s playoffs and is one of just two NFL RBs all time to average 110+ career scrimmage yards in both the regular season and playoffs.
I will take Elijah Mitchell over Clyde Edwards-Helaire when comparing the backups, as the 49ers' No. 2 RB has rushed for a TD in his last three games played.
Advantage: 49ers -- McCaffrey would get the edge over any other current RB. Pacheco, however, has solidified himself as a quality RB1 for Kansas City, which was a need during the three seasons before he was drafted.
Wide Receivers
Rashee Rice is the only dependable WR on the Kansas City roster. The impressive rookie has 5+ catches in eight of his past nine games overall. He needs six receptions to surpass Ja'Marr Chase (25 in 2021) for the most playoff catches ever by a rookie. He had 130 yards in the AFC Wild Card game, but was held under 50 in his next two outings. Boom-or-bust deep specialist Marquez Valdes-Scantling leads all other Chiefs WRs with five catches during the current postseason.
The 49ers feature one of the better WR duos in the league, with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. Samuel had a career playoff-best eight catches for 89 yards in the NFC Championship Game. A versatile playmaker and YAC master, he had 1,117 scrimmage yards and 12 TDs during the regular season. Aiyuk had 75 receptions for a career-high 1,342 receiving yards and seven TDs. He had only six receptions for 100 yards and a TD in two NFC playoff games, though. Jauan Jennings has proved to be a capable depth piece when needed.
Advantage: 49ers -- The Niners have the easy overall edge here but face the tougher secondary in Super Bowl LVIII.
Tight Ends
This is the highlighted comparison between two of the very best tight ends of the current era, with one arguably qualifying as the best of all time (Travis Kelce vs. Rob Gronkowski debates can become clearer after this Super Bowl). Kelce has rediscovered his best form in the playoffs after a disappointing regular season. The future first-ballot Hall of Famer has a TD catch in eight of his last nine playoff games and a TD reception in two of the three Super Bowls he has played in. He had 11 receptions for 116 yards and a TD in the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens.
George Kittle led all NFL TEs with 1,020 receiving yards during the regular season. He had four catches for 81 yards and a TD in the Divisional Round vs. Green Bay, but he was quiet during the NFC title game shootout with Detroit, finishing with 27 receiving yards on two receptions.
Playoff first-read target rates, per @FantasyPtsData:
36% — Travis Kelce
31% — Brandon Aiyuk
25% — Deebo Samuel
24% — Rashee Rice
17% — Christian McCaffrey
14% — George Kittle
13% — Marquez Valdes-Scantling— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) February 6, 2024
Advantage: Chiefs -- Kittle is a superior run blocker, but when Kelce is playing at his highest levels as he has been recently, no one else at TE will beat him in an overall comparison.
Offensive Line
49ers left tackle Trent Williams may be the No. 1 overall lineman in the game, but the rest of his crew falls far short otherwise. Right guard Jon Feliciano graded out well on Pro Football Focus as a run blocker (87.2) during the regular season, but among all the other San Francisco starters, right tackle Colton McKivitz had the highest PFF grade at 65.1. Any grade below 70 is not considered optimal starter material.
Kansas City is shaky on the edges, as RT Jawaan Taylor and left tackle Donovan Smith may be the most suspect duo in the league. The team’s best lineman, All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, may miss Super Bowl LVIII because of a pectoral injury. Center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith do offer stability on the inside, though.
Advantage: Chiefs -- Without Thuney, Kansas City only has a minor edge. Both units will face significant challenges, as the Chiefs’ blitzes and 49ers defensive line will severely test the fronts they face.
Defensive Line
Nick Bosa had two sacks in the NFC Championship Game and now has 10 sacks in 11 career playoff games. Taylor is going to need much help in trying to contain him. Defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead both had top-five pass rush grades on PFF this season. Defensive end Chase Young has elicited negative chatter because of his disappointing play, but he still can impact games with his talents.
Kansas City DT Chris Jones was a top-six graded player at his position by PFF at 86.8 and he was named a first-team All-Pro for the second consecutive season. DE George Karlaftis has a sack in three of his past four games overall and he had a sack and a fumble recovery in the AFC Championship Game. Jones anchors the line with significant presence, but the rest of the group does not make regularly impactful plays.
Advantage: 49ers
Linebackers
San Francisco middle linebacker Fred Warner and weakside LB Dre Greenlaw form what may be the best LB pairing in the league. Warner was named a first-team All-Pro for the third time this season and was the highest-graded LB in the NFL by PFF at 90.3. He had the third-best run defense grade at 90.3. Greenlaw had two key interceptions in the Divisional Round win over Green Bay.
"When we do make it back, it'll to be that much sweeter." @fred_warner got a pick in his last Super Bowl, but this year he's out for redemption 💪 pic.twitter.com/kBlvRluJrX
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) February 6, 2024
The Kansas City unit is less heralded. MLB Nick Bolton, however, is a quality quarterback of the defense. He has 10+ tackles in three of his past four games. In Super Bowl LVII, Bolton had nine tackles and a fumble recovery for a TD. Strongside LB Drue Tranquill had a top-four PFF pass rush grade (86.1) and he has 7+ tackles in each of his last two games. WLB Willie Gay and Leo Chenal, who is a good run defender, round out a unit that gets the job done well overall.
Advantage: 49ers
Secondary
The Chiefs secondary is the biggest strength of the defense. L'Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie form an outstanding CB duo, and Joshua Williams is a quality No. 3. Aided by strong safety Justin Reid, the Kansas City secondary allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards to opposing QBs during the regular season and allowed only 219 passing yards per game during the AFC playoffs. McDuffie also had a top-four PFF run defense grade (84.1).
Former Chiefs cornerback Charvarius Ward had a top-six overall PFF grade (83.4) and led the NFL with a career-high 23 passes defensed during the regular season. CB Deommodore Lenoir had a top-30 CB grade of 73.1, but third CB Ambry Thomas has struggled. Free safety Tashaun Gipson has been a stout run defender and forced an important fumble during the NFC Championship Game.
Advantage: Chiefs -- The proof is in the overall numbers against opposing pass defenses.
Top 10 improved Chiefs players from 2022 to 2023, per @PFF:
2022 | 2023 | Change
Harrison Butker 61.8 | 90.8 | +29.0
George Karlaftis 50.2 | 65.0 | +14.8
Malik Herring 46.1 | 60.7 | +14.6
Joshua Williams… pic.twitter.com/YZL5Pe2sR3— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) February 6, 2024
Kicker
San Francisco rookie Jake Moody has missed kicks in both NFC playoff games. Harrison Butker has made all seven of his postseason attempts and also delivered game-winning kicks in the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl last season.
Edge: Chiefs
Coaching
Andy Reid has 25 playoff wins, the second-most ever by a head coach. He is on the verge of making his Chiefs the first team in 19 years to win consecutive Super Bowls. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has received much praise for the success of the Kansas City defense, which ranked second in the NFL in points per game allowed (17.3) during the regular season and held two teams to 10 or fewer points during the AFC playoffs.
Kyle Shanahan has an 11-8 postseason record and lost in his previous attempt to beat Kansas City in the Super Bowl four years ago. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks has seen his unit become an area of larger concern after allowing 31 points to Detroit in the NFC Championship Game. The 49ers allowed the Packers to rush for 4.9 yards per carry in the Divisional Round and the Lions followed by averaging 6.3 yards per attempt.
Edge: Chiefs
Summary
The teams were tied after the first eight positions reviewed, but the Chiefs finished with the overall advantage in six of 10 areas. Super Bowl LVIII should be a tight matchup, yet the comparisons point to a close edge for Kansas City, with kicking and coaching potentially being decisive advantages.
Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.
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