Super Bowl 58 Burning Question: Is Brock Purdy Elite?

January 31, 2024

Scott Engel attempts to settle the Super Bowl 58 debate about whether Brock Purdy is an elite NFL QB or not.

The critics of Brock Purdy continue to claim that he is the product of a great offensive environment and what can be viewed as the best roster in the NFL. His supporters, which have seemingly increased in number and volume since he played a big role in the 49ers winning the NFC Championship Game, now hold him up as one of the top-level quarterbacks in the NFL.

Now, as Super Bowl 58 approaches, and the 49ers' second-year QB has a chance to add to his quickly-growing list of accomplishments, the debate is still very lively on social media about whether Purdy has truly arrived as an “elite” NFL quarterback. With every San Francisco win, the naysayers point to any negative they see within those victories, His backers highlight the final results and insist the debate is over, and Purdy has proved he is indeed an elite NFL QB.

Before the NFC Championship Game, I had posted on my X /Twitter account that I believed Purdy was a very good quarterback in a great situation, but he was not quite elite. That statement seemed to rankle some of Niner Nation, as there is a faction of 49ers fans that take any statement that Purdy is not a superstar as a barb against him. I am certainly not a Purdy critic or anything close to a “hater.”

He's not an elite QB but he is an ideal fit in his system and with his surrounding playmakers. He is the perfect puzzle piece on a winner. That is what matters

— Scott Engel (@scotteTheKing) January 23, 2024

What is an Elite NFL QB?

A fair question from the Purdy fan club was “What is the definition of elite?”

The simple dictionary definition of that word is as follows: “A select group that is superior in terms of ability or qualities to the rest of the group or society.”

Many of the anti-Purdy types will submit that he is not superior in terms of ability.  While he does seem to make all the necessary types of key throws to help his team win and showed off some rushing prowess at critical points of the NFC Championship Game, Purdy does not wow most NFL observers with his overall toolbox of abilities. NFL Draft status aside, he objectively should not strike anyone as the type of guy to build a franchise around based on pure talent.

If you were starting a team today and wanted a franchise-type player as the QB, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen would be the obvious and unquestionable choices over Purdy. He’s just not in that tier of QBs.

In terms of “qualities”, though, you can make a good case for Purdy possibly being on a level with the best in the NFL. His decision-making and accuracy are superb traits. He is tremendously poised for a second-year QB who has been put into so many high-pressure situations and frequently responded with impressive results.

Of course, these scouting estimators of mine are heavily subjective, so let’s look at some numbers and other related factors.

Numbers and More: Is Brock Purdy A Superstar?

During the regular season, Purdy led the NFL in QB rating (113.0), ranked third in TD passes (31), and fifth in passing yards (4,280). He became the first 49ers QB in 23 years to pass for 4,000 yards. He has the second-highest completion percentage of any NFL QB in his first 10 NFL starts (70.4).  During the postseason he became just the third NFL QB in the Super Bowl era to advance to the conference championship game in his first two seasons.

Purdy led two comeback victories during the NFC playoffs. His critics will point to him not performing well over a full game, but in the end, he made the key plays to earn the wins. A QB does not have to excel over a full game to win when it matters most.

No quarterback in the history of football ever did less coming back from a 17-point deficit than Purdy. I mean a pass off the defender’s face and a 25-yard drive and the game is tied. Insane.

— Michael Salfino (@MichaelSalfino) January 29, 2024

I cannot put Lamar Jackson in the elite basket because of his obvious losing record in the playoffs. But when it comes to accomplishments and stats, Purdy is just not there yet with Mahomes and Allen. One guy is a two-time NFL and Super Bowl MVP, a two-time passing TD leader, and set an NFL record with 11 TD passes in a postseason, among his other myriad highlights. The other is the ultimate dual threat, who became the first QB in history to record multiple seasons of 4,000-plus passing yards and 700-plus rushing yards.

Mahomes is on a level all his own, and while Allen has only reached a conference title game once in his career, he is a unique playmaker who has no real comparison in today’s NFL. To be elite means you are in the company of where Tom Brady and Peyton Manning were when they played. Mahomes is already on his way to challenging Brady as the GOAT. Allen has recorded some lofty personal numbers but has not yet delivered highly notable winning accomplishments.

I believe Mahomes is alone by himself as an elite NFL QB right now. Allen has the potential to get there, but he needs to come through with some defining moments in the postseason. Purdy has a shorter sample size of work, and while I am not criticizing him for it, a supporting cast has helped to boost him as a winner. He is obviously not in the Mahomes tier statistically and accomplishment-wise, which I regard as true elite territory. If Allen wins an MVP award or two or plays in a Super Bowl he can get into the elite club, which is not necessarily reserved for two-time Super Bowl MVPs, either. Purdy does have a road to getting there, too.

The Path To Being Regarded As Elite

I just cannot regard Purdy as an elite QB yet. Only Mahomes is in that inner circle right now, and Allen has the potential to join him with some real postseason accomplishments or some seasons ahead of true MVP play over a full year. Purdy hurt his MVP candidacy when he had his worst game of the year against the Ravens. The three-game losing streak without Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams didn’t help his case, either. Keep in mind that the NFL MVP is a regular-season award only.

Brock Purdy's on top of some ELITE company 😳 pic.twitter.com/V3tkUTeQ6u

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) January 30, 2024

I cannot fully overlook the outstanding playmaking crew Purdy works with. He is supported by the best RB in the game and one of the prime WR/TE trios in the league. At the same time, Purdy is the one who has to make it all work and direct the flow. He is a very important part of the Niners’ very successful offensive puzzle.

I liken Purdy’s early career arc in some ways to Russell Wilson’s. The Seahawks Super Bowl teams that he played on had a historically outstanding defense and one of the top RBs in the NFL. Yet Seattle needed a quality QB to complete the championship puzzle. Wilson was a very good QB on a great roster, much like Purdy is now. He made many timely and dynamic plays to help his team reach two Super Bowls, including the game-winning TD passes in two NFC Championship Games.

Ultimately, I don’t view Purdy as an elite QB yet. That is not a negative statement at all. He’s an above-average QB utilizing the weaponry and environment around him to reach his highest potential early in his career. Many of those who debate about Purdy either see him as a glorified game manager or a certifiable top-shelf QB. I don’t view him as either one, not taking an extreme position like many do in social media showdowns.

Brock Purdy is a very good QB on a great team. Saying he is not elite is not downing him at all, although some may choose to contest the statement because it’s a reflex action of being a 49ers fan. Purdy is not a game manager, and he’s not a superstar either. He is also not a pure product of the offense he plays in. Purdy can be regarded as a high-quality QB in a terrific situation. Both can be true.

While I don’t see Purdy as elite just yet, though, I certainly never said or will say he cannot become elite. If he wins the Super Bowl 58 MVP award, the anti-Purdy campers will not have much to argue about anymore. Purdy’s performance in Super Bowl 58 will define his current status as elite or not.

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.

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