Week 12 College Football Coaches' Hot Seat Rankings

November 15, 2023

Tony ranks the top power five head coaches in danger of being fired after the 2023 season. Which coaches are on the hot seat following Week 11?

As we enter Week 12 of the 2023 college football season, let's shift our focus to the head coaches who are experiencing heightened pressure regarding their job security. College football is an intensely competitive arena with lofty expectations, placing coaches squarely in the spotlight. If they've been on a prolonged losing streak, it can lead to significant job uncertainty.

Following Week 11, Jimbo Fisher from Texas A&M and Zach Arnett from Mississippi State were fired after their game last week, where the Aggies emerged victorious with a score of 51-10. Fisher had been on this list throughout the season, but his position remained relatively low due to his exorbitant buyout price. However, A&M has reached a tipping point, and the former Seminole coach is now out after numerous underwhelming seasons.

Now, let's delve into the midseason NCAA College Football Hot Seat Rankings for Power Five Coaches, following Week 11.

5. Dana Holgorsen, Houston Cougars

Record at School: 31-26 / (4-6 in 2023)

With Fisher removed from the list after finally getting fired, Dana Holgorsen reclaims the fifth spot. The Cougars enjoyed a 12-win season under Holgorsen in the AAC, consistently making bowl appearances in his final three years in that conference. However, the transition to the Big 12 hasn't been favorable for Houston, currently sitting at 2-5 in conference play, including a surprising loss to Rice.

In Week 10, Houston narrowly secured an overtime victory against the struggling Baylor Bears. However, the team faced a significant setback with a 24-14 home loss to Cincinnati, a team that was previously winless in the Big 12 and holds a 3-7 overall record this season. The Cougars appear to be struggling to match the competitive level of the conference and may need to consider changes to shake things up.

With a current record of 4-6, Houston must win both of their remaining games to become bowl-eligible. Facing number 23 Oklahoma State and a UCF team coming off their most impressive showing of the year, there's a real possibility they finish the season at 4-8 in their inaugural year in the new conference. Despite the impending departures of Texas and Oklahoma, the addition of Pac-12 teams will present new challenges for success in this conference.

4. Tom Allen, Indiana Hoosiers

Record at School: 33-47 / (3-7 in 2023)

The Hoosiers faced a challenging start to the season with an unfortunate 0-5 record in Big Ten play. Following a demanding contest at Penn State, they rebounded with a notable home victory over Wisconsin. Week 11 presented a crucial opportunity for Indiana to solidify Tom Allen's position for the next season, but they suffered a hard-fought loss in overtime at Illinois. This officially eliminates them from bowl contention, marking the third consecutive season without a bowl appearance.

Indiana has two favorable matchups remaining to conclude the season, hosting a 3-7 Michigan State and traveling to face in-state rival Purdue, also at 3-7. If they can secure victories in both games, it increases the likelihood of Allen returning for another season. Despite the team's evident commitment and Allen's popularity in Bloomington, the results speak for themselves.

Looking ahead, the addition of top-tier programs from the Pac-12—Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA—next season paints a bleak outlook for the program. Another season without a bowl game, especially amidst significant conference changes, could prompt Indiana to consider a coaching change.

3. Justin Wilcox, California Golden Bears

Record At School: 34-42 / (4-6 in 2023)

The Golden Bears kept their bowl game hopes alive last week with a narrow 42-39 home victory against a struggling Washington State team. Currently holding a 4-6 record for the season, they have a challenging 2-5 record in Pac-12 play. Notably, they haven't secured any wins this year against teams with a winning record; their two Pac-12 victories came against Arizona State (3-7) and Washington State (1-6 in Pac-12 play).

Since 2019 under Justin Wilcox, California has not made a bowl game. To achieve that this season, they must secure wins against Stanford and UCLA. While they are currently favored by six-and-a-half points against Stanford, a tough win at UCLA in the last week of the season is necessary to clinch bowl eligibility.

If Cal can win both remaining games and reach their first bowl game in four seasons, Wilcox is likely to secure another season. Although the expectations aren't exceedingly high for the Golden Bears' football program, a move to the ACC could potentially trigger a coaching change if they finish with less than six wins.

2. Dino Babers, Syracuse Orange

Record at School: 41-54 / (5-5 in 2023)

Syracuse secured their first ACC win of the season last week with a 28-13 victory over the 2-8 Pittsburgh Panthers. Following Fisher's firing, Dino Babers stands as the sole coach on this list with a .500 or better record, mainly due to his 1-5 conference record. For the second consecutive season, Syracuse started strong only to experience a descent to Earth, placing them in jeopardy of missing a bowl game.

The remaining two games pose moderate challenges for Syracuse. This week, they face a 5-5 Georgia Tech team, and then they host Wake Forest to close the season. If Babers can guide the team to another season of bowl eligibility, there's a chance he could return next season. However, considering his recent second-half-of-the-season collapses, it wouldn't be surprising if they opt for a change regardless of the season's outcome.

With new teams entering the ACC next year, Syracuse faces an even tougher competitive landscape. Moving on from Babers might be on the horizon, regardless of how the season concludes, in the hopes of staying competitive with the ACC heavyweights.

1. Dave Aranda, Baylor Bears

Record at School: 23-23 / (3-7 in 2023)

Baylor has officially been eliminated from bowl contention this season after suffering their most embarrassing loss in the Dave Aranda era. The Bears fell 59-25 to Kansas State this past weekend, bringing their overall season record to 3-7. This marks the third consecutive loss for Baylor, including a defeat against a struggling newcomer, Houston, in the Big 12.

Under Aranda's leadership, Baylor reached a bowl game in each of the last two seasons, including an impressive 12-win season in 2021. However, this program is held to a higher standard than just making bowl games, and finding themselves among the likes of the AAC newcomers in the bottom tier of the Big 12 is a significant disappointment.

To close out the year, the Bears will face TCU and West Virginia, neither of which appears to be a game that could potentially save Aranda's job with a win. Despite the imminent departure of Texas and Oklahoma from the conference, the arrival of Pac-12 teams will maintain a competitive balance. Due to the elevated standards of the Baylor program, it seems likely that Aranda is out after the season or on the hottest seat with a short leash heading into next year.

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