Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Week 1 Include Isaiah Likely, Geno Smith, Brian Robinson Jr.

September 10, 2023

Scott breaks down his fantasy football lineup starts/sits for Week 1 (2023). He spotlights key NFL players to start, and tougher lineup start/sit decisions.

Every week, I share some of my favored players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These choices are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus a full roster of tools and analysis for the 2022 fantasy football season.

We feature players that you should lean to in tough calls, and guys who may exceed expectations this week are also highlighted, so you can feel even more confident about starting them. Skill position analysis here is based on my PPR rankings.

When considering each player for your lineup, check our fantasy football rankings to see exactly where they are positioned when compared to your other possible lineup choices.

Tight End – Fantasy Football Week 1

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens

With Mark Andrews (quadriceps) not expected to play on Sunday, Likely became the most wildly popular weekend waiver addition in fantasy football. He is widely considered to be a very promising pass-catcher who was unfortunately and obviously stuck on the depth chart behind Mark Andrews.

In the 2022 preseason, Likely flashed his potential with eight receptions for 100 yards and a TD against Arizona. During the regular season, Likely caught six passes for 77 yards and a TD in Week 8 vs. Tampa Bay, and in the schedule finisher, he started and caught eight passes for 103 yards against the Bengals.

That Isaiah Likely shiftiness🫣 pic.twitter.com/6wb7zWdGGa

— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) September 7, 2023

Likely has taken advantage of every opportunity he has seen, so I back him as a top 10 TE for Week 1. But he also has more target competition in Baltimore than last season, so I don’t quite view him as a top 5 TE for this week. I am slightly favoring Evan Engram, Juwan Johnson, and Tyler Higbee over him. Engram is coming off a good year and I like the Jacksonville offense to roll up a healthy amount of offensive production against the Colts.

Johnson gets a QB upgrade after catching seven TD passes in 2022, and Higbee has a draw against a Seattle team that has been always vulnerable to TEs over the past decade. He should he headed for an expanded role because of the Cooper Kupp injury.

If you want to start Likely over any of those three TEs, I will not say it’s a bad call, but will stop short of recommending the second-year man over top available options such as T.J. Hockenson or Kyle Pitts, who has more upside. Just because Likely is taking over the Andrews role does not mean he also slides into his elite spot on the TE ladder for this week. But he is a certain top 10 TE in Week 1, and I would start Likely over guys like Dalton Kincaid and Pat Freiermuth, who face top opposing defenses.

Quarterbacks – Fantasy Football Week 1

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Last season, Smith finished as fantasy QB5. His 30 TD passes led all NFC quarterbacks. He had the most games of two-plus TD passes in the NFL, with 10. Yet some fantasy analysts are ranking Smith outside the top 12 QBs for Week 1. I sense a lingering air of skepticism about the Seattle second-year starter as the 2023 season opens.

Smith scored less than 18 fantasy points in the final four games of the 2022 season, even though he averaged 18.5 overall. But I expect to see more overall consistency from Smith this year, starting in Week 1. Last year, the Seahawks struggled in third down conversion percentage, ranking 20th in the NFL. Rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet were drafted to help in that area and should make an immediate impact in the opener against a Rams defense that is nowhere near as formidable as it once was.

The addition of Smith-Njigba gives Seattle the best WR trio in the NFL, and a Los Angeles secondary that now appears to be highly vulnerable might get torched by Smith. He is a back-end fantasy QB1 for Week 1.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Last season, Tagovailoa had 25 TD passes in 13 games, and he may have more upside this season if injuries are not a frequent issue. He is the ideal fit for Mike McDaniel’s passing game and has the schemes and timing down perfectly. Tagovailoa already looks like the best Dolphins QB since Dan Marino. He is a system QB, yet that is not a negative. Tagovailoa is a stellar system QB, who embraces the game planning and makes the most of it very often.

Vegas has been projecting the Dolphins-Chargers to be the highest game of the Sunday slate all week. I am looking forward to seeing Tagovailoa trade offensive punches with Justin Herbert. Los Angeles held Tagovailoa to 145 passing yards and one TD last season, and he will be ready to perform better this time. Tagovailoa is my QB7 for Week 1, ahead of Justin Fields and Joe Burrow.

Running Backs – Fantasy Football Week 1

Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

Not many fantasy players or analysts seem to be excited about Mattison. Heck, there is even a narrative floating around that he may lose his starting job at some point this season. That seems disrespectful and in stark contrast to when Dalvin Cook’s former backup was universally regarded as one of the top No. 2 RBs in the NFL.

Alexander Mattison should have a strong day

Last year per @FantasyPtsData

Mattison 60% zone runs

TB last year allowed the 7th highest YPC to zone runs

Also they gave up the 4th-most zone rushing yds

— Derek Brown (aka Ugly John Daigle) (@DBro_FFB) September 9, 2023

Mattison may not be as explosive as Cook was, but he should start to show why the Minnesota front office comfortably handed the starting job to him. Tampa Bay’s defensive line does feature Vita Vea, but the Vikings’ offense should control the tempo against the Buccaneers. The defense may get worn down over time, and Mattison could score more than one TD as the drive finisher for a good offense that will move the ball crisply. I would expect at least respectable rushing totals while enjoying the TD output.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

The Jets’ defense is a naturally and understandably scary matchup for any fantasy player to see next to the name of one of their starters on a lineup screen. But the Buffalo offense remains one of the best in the league, and you should have some faith in Cook to build off a strong preseason.

I doubt the Bills we be shut out or held out of the end zone altogether, and Buffalo will turn to other playmakers with the best pass defense in the league attempting to limit the wide receivers. Utilizing Cook as both a runner and pass-catcher can help Josh Allen move the ball more methodically and make the Jets honor the ground game and flat and shorter passes. Cook could be busy on Monday night, so don’t bench him, as some have already asked me about reserving the dual threat in Week 1.

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders

Injuries cut into Robinson’s progress in his rookie season. Published reports have focused on him having a much more positive outlook heading into the 2023 campaign, as he is in good health. The Commanders have an obviously advantageous matchup against Arizona, and Robinson may be used often to ease some pressure on Sam Howell.

The Washington offense should flow through the ground game and Robinson can get chances to land in the end zone more than once. I have him as a top 20 RB for fantasy football Week 1.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Akers had a career-high 903 scrimmage yards (786 rushing) and seven rushing TDs in 15 games in 2022. He totaled 100+ scrimmage yards in each of his final four games last season, including 128 scrimmage yards (104 rushing) at Seattle in Week 18. Down the final stretch of the season, Akers definitely started to rediscover much of his better form.

The Rams obviously are lacking in the passing game without Kupp, and Los Angeles may eventually find itself in fruitless catch-up mode on Sunday. But Akers represents their best option to keep the offense moving, and the Rams will test the Seahawks run defense to see if it truly improved from last year. Akers is not an upside play for Week 1, but he could see a good amount of volume to make him more capable of posting respectable numbers than some other shaky lineup picks, such as James Conner and Breece Hall.

Wide Receivers – Fantasy Football Week 1

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

Sean Payton wants to make a clear offensive statement in his first game on the Denver sidelines, and the Raiders had the second-worst pass defense in the AFC last season. The Las Vegas secondary does not look to be much improved in 2023.

Russell Wilson needs to get off to a good start to the year and will make frequent use of Sutton, who had five receptions for 50-plus yards in both games vs. the Raiders last year and has more of a potential ceiling in this week’s matchup.

Finally, bringing it home at WR is Courtland Sutton ...

👇👇👇🔥🔥🔥#fantasyfootball pic.twitter.com/9YEARPV3te

— Brad Evans (@NoisyHuevos) September 9, 2023

NOTE: I also agree with Brad on Mostert.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts

In his most recent meeting with the Jaguars last season, Pittman had the best game of his career, catching 13 balls for 134 yards. Last season, Pittman had 99 receptions working with a washed Matt Ryan and other low-level alternatives.

Anthony Richardson will lean on Pittman whether the Colts stay in the game against the Panthers or play from behind. The 6-foot-4, 223-pounder is a viable fantasy WR3.flex start.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Predicting which Seattle WR will lead the team in fantasy points is going to be a big challenge every week. But I outlined earlier why the rookie was taken in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Seahawks, and he should make his presence felt immediately.

Because of his ability to challenge defenses at every level, Smith-Njigba reminds me of former Seattle stalwart Doug Baldwin, with even more juke and burst. I have a premonition about his first NFL TD coming in his NFL debut at home vs. the Rams. Smith-Njigba is worthy of strong flex consideration in Week 1.

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.

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