Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds: Using Average Exit Velocity to Predict Regression (Week 6)

May 5, 2023

Statcast hitter struggles and fantasy baseball fallers for Week 6 (2023). Brenton evaluates hitters whose fantasy value could positively or negatively regress based on advanced sabermetrics.

Welcome to the second edition of Statcast Hitter Studs and Duds for the 2023 fantasy baseball season! Be sure to also check out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball, including the weekly series by Connelly Doan about Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds.

We're still early enough into the 2023 MLB regular season that there is an eternity for players to get things turned around. Positive and negative regression is a fun discussion to center on early in the season as we don't want to get carried away with early-season results. However, it's not the surface results we're looking at in these weekly Statcast-driven pieces.

Rather, it's the underlying data we're dialing in on. Speaking specifically to this week, let's take a look at some players who are due to regress, either positively or negatively, based on their prevailing hard-hit rates. After all, the harder you hit the ball, the better your surface numbers will turn out. It's not rocket science. Bad luck is one thing but the law of averages usually prevails over a 162-game season. Let's get to it!

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Statcast Hitter Studs & Duds - Using Average Exit Velocity to Predict Regression (Week 6)

MJ Melendez, C/OF, Royals

MJ Melendez came into the season with plenty of hype despite hitting just .217 with a .706 OPS across 129 games as a rookie in 2022. He's off to a tough start again this season but things should get turned around sooner than later.

He did collect a three-hit night on Thursday but Melendez is still hitting just .200 with a .651 OPS alongside three homers on the young season. However, he also ranks seventh among qualified hitters with a 94.9 mph average exit velocity on the season. Now, Melendez does have 10 extra-base hits on the campaign as his 15.9% barrel rate ranks in the league's 89th percentile.

Melendez doesn't have the best BABIP fortune with a .250 mark entering play Thursday but you can set your watch to a breakout coming for the 24-year-old that could have very well begun Thursday against the Orioles.

Kris Bryant, OF, Rockies

Kris Bryant is off to a nice start with a .309 average and .846 OPS alongside four homers in 110 at-bats on the season but he is not hitting the ball hard at all.

In fact, Bryant's 85.4 mph average exit velocity ranks 327th of 352 hitters with at least 25 batted-ball events on the season. Furthermore, he sports a 4.7% barrel rate that sits in the league's 25th percentile. Of course, playing half of your games at Coors Field in Colorado will always buoy your numbers but his production is unlikely to be sustained.

He still ranks in the 77th percentile in average velocity but a .309 average doesn't fit that bill. A 14th percentile ranking in hard-hit rate doesn't exactly spell success, either.

Don't be surprised to see Bryant's production drop, at least in road games moving forward.

Ryan McMahon, INF, Rockies

Bryant's teammate Ryan McMahon isn't off to a great start save for a solid four homers in the early going. He's also hitting just .215 with a .303 wOBA and 72 wRC+, which suggests his bat has been well below league average so far this season.

However, McMahon's batted-ball profile is rather solid. His 91.2 mph average exit velocity ranks in the 79th percentile while McMahon also sits in the 85th percentile in hard-hit rate and 94th percentile in barrel rate. His xBA sits in the 30th percentile but his xwOBA of .351 sits in the 64th percentile. This doesn't exactly seem like a player whose 72 wRC+ suggests he's been 28% below the league average at the plate.

He certainly has a strikeout issue going with a 37.5% K% on the season. Given his 28.4% career mark, he should be able to tame the swing-and-missing moving forward. He's been at 26.5% or lower in each of the last two seasons.

He's a solid bet for at least 20 homers again this season. While he might not be a fantasy mainstay, he is a nice streaming option given his home park and the fact he's due to positive regress moving forward.

Marcus Semien, 2B, Rangers

The Texas Rangers made a sizeable investment on Semien a couple of winters ago but it doesn't appear they're going to get their money's worth in the 2023 season.

Sure, he's hitting .277 with five homers, four steals, and a .822 OPS across 30 games to begin the season. His bat has been 31% superior to the league average with his 11.7% BB% contributing to that figure. However, the negative regression train should take over moving forward.

His .301 BABIP isn't out of this world but Semien's 87.4 mph average exit velocity ranks 246th of the 352 bats with at least 25 batted-ball events on the campaign. In fact, it's not just average exit velocity that is hampering the former 45-homer man this season.

Does that profile look like someone who has been 31% better than the league average this season? Semien has five homers and seven doubles despite a 21st percentile ranking in barrel rate while his prevailing .359 wOBA is well above his expected .312 expected mark.

He's a fine asset as a second baseman in fantasy baseball but we should expect the production to simmer moving forward.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Mariners

Hernandez has seven homers on the season, which is treating fantasy managers quite well. His bat has been enduring a down season on the whole.

Hernandez is hitting just .210 with a .666 OPS and .286 wOBA on the season. His 84 wRC+ is by far the worst of his career to this point after posting a mark between 129 and 140 in each of the last three seasons. Good news, fantasy managers: Hernandez is due for some serious positive regression moving forward.

His 90.6 mph average exit velocity is tied for 84th among those 352 players with a minimum of 25 batted-ball events. He also sports strong percentile rankings in numerous other departments.

Indeed, those strikeout and walk figures need a serious kick in the butt. Hernandez has walked in just two of his 126 plate appearances with 44 strikeouts in that time. He's long had swing-and-miss in his game but he at least sports a palatable, yet unspectacular 7.1% BB% for his career.

The home runs have been there but the batting average and OPS should be in for a notable boost given the quality of contact he's made this season.

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