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Just when the public thinks they've figured it out, they get crushed. DraftKings released its top-five most-bet teams Sunday: the Ravens -3.5 (80%), Chargers -3 (77%), Broncos -1 (71%), Seahawks -4 (70%), and Bucs -3.5 (70%). The only team that won was the Chargers, but they didn't even cover. This is the time of year when you firmly believe you know how a team will play, but the exact opposite happens. My worst NFL gambling weeks have come around this week, so be careful.
Week 13 has a great slate featuring two divisional games between teams with winning records (Bills-Patriots & Commanders-Giants,) two red-hot teams (Jets-Vikings), and a battle between top quarterbacks (Chiefs-Bengals.)
You may be out of your survivor pool, or maybe you're in a second chance contest. Or maybe you're just looking for analysis, or just want my best bets. In this article, you'll find it all.
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NFL Teams Favored by 7+ in Week 13
Lines are consensus via The Action Network: Cowboys -11 vs. Colts, Ravens -8.5 vs. Broncos, Seahawks -7.5 at Rams, and Browns -7 at Texans.
If you're reading this article on Thursday or later, know that these lines are from Wednesday. Check the current spreads and see how the lines moved.
Teams on bye this week: Cardinals, Panthers
My best bets are at the bottom of the column.
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 13
Seahawks -7.5 at Rams
This is the no-brainer top play of the week if Seattle is still available. The Rams are as bad as the Texans and it's also only going to get worse. Based on numerous reports, they'll likely be without Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and now Allen Robinson for the season. Prior to the injuries, their offense had 4.6 yards per play.
It's now 4.5 over the last three, dead last. Their quarterback, Bryce Perkins, is just not an NFL quarterback. On Sunday, he was 13-for-23 for 100 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions. Their rushing attack ranks 31st. If there were ever a defense to expose, it's Seattle's, but the Rams have no offense and this game will have more fans from Seattle than Los Angeles.
Seahawks 34 - Rams 17
Ravens -8.5 vs. Broncos
You keep thinking Russell Wilson can't possibly be this bad, but every week it gets worse. They lost another game where the Broncos' defense did their best to keep them in the game, but the offense scored just 10 points. They're averaging a league-worst 14.3 points per game and 12 in the last three. How with today's rules can an NFL team not score 24 points? The offense has only scored 20+ points in one game this year. We saw defensive players getting frustrated in the second half with the offense.
Similarly to the Seahawks-Rams game, the Ravens' defense has been suspect especially late in games. They've blown three games with at least a two-possession lead in the fourth quarter. That's tied for the most in history and the season isn't even over yet. In years past, Lamar Jackson and the offense would put nearly all games away when they had a lead. Those struggles could be in part to not scoring touchdowns in the red zone. The Ravens have scored touchdowns on 39 percent of red zone chances in the last three games, the fifth-worst in the league.
This game will be very telling in terms of how Denver's defense reacts and if they sort of lose it and finally have a bad game. With what the Broncos have shown all season, the Ravens should win.
Ravens 23 - Broncos 13
Cowboys -11 vs. Colts
This line was 9.5 before Indy lost on Monday night to the Steelers. Matt Ryan was sacked three times and is completely immobile. The Cowboys have the best pass rush in football with 45 team sacks and Ryan will face constant pressure from Micah Parsons. The Jeff Saturday honeymoon phase is over and we're seeing what kind of coach he is after that horrible clock management on the final drive.
When the Cowboys have the ball, they'll run the ball, control the clock, and Dak Prescott can make the throws needed to win.
Cowboys 31 - Colts 14
Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 13
Bills -5 at Patriots
We'll finally see if there's something legitimately wrong with Buffalo's offense when they face the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. On Thanksgiving day, Josh Allen made the plays to get Buffalo the win, but he did not always look so good. After a three-and-out to open the game Thursday against the Lions, the Bills scored on the next three possessions. But in the second half, they went interception, punt, punt, and punt before scoring a touchdown and game-winning field goal. If the Lions managed the clock better, they would have won.
If New England opens up the offense again, the Bills' defense can be beaten. Recently, the defense has been average.
Bills 21 - Patriots 20
Packers -4 at Bears
Aaron Rodgers says he plans to play Sunday despite his thumb and rib injury. It's unclear if Justin Fields will start for the Bears. Even if they both do, it's too hard to predict these teams with how they've been playing. Both have bottom-10 defenses in yards per play in their last three games. Both quarterbacks are not fully healthy. Too many question marks.
Bears 23 - Packers 22
Browns -7 at Texans
If there's one game Houston gets up for, it's this one. Deshaun Watson will be playing in his first NFL game in two years and of course it comes against his former team. There are way too many questions surrounding this game and it's best to avoid them. But I do think this line is too high.
Texans 23 - Browns 21
Vikings -3 vs. Jets
This is one of the top games of the week. Mike White leading a resurgent offense into Minneapolis to face the 9-2 Vikings. You'd think this line would be higher with how Minnesota has played all year but Vegas seems to believe in Mike White.
Jets 27 - Vikings 24
NFL Best Bets for Week 13
- Ravens -9 vs. Broncos - Denver's offense has shown nothing at all this year. All Baltimore needs to do is score 24 points to cover. They average 25 per game so that shouldn't be an issue.
- Falcons +1.5 vs. Steelers - There's too much overreaction to Pittsburgh's win against the Colts. Atlanta has a better offense in terms of yards per play, converting on third downs, and scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Pittsburgh has a better defense, but not enough to warrant being a road favorite.
- Texans +7 vs. Browns - Cleveland should not be favored by seven over anyone. I expect Deshaun Watson to be rusty and the Texans to come out firing to beat their old quarterback.
Running Totals
- Last Week: 2-1
- 2022 season: 21-13-2
- 2021 season: 27-26-1
- 2020 season: 24-27
- 2019 season: 23-26-2
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