RADIO
Matt Chapman is on the move for the first time in his career. He heads away from Oakland's marine layer to the confines of Toronto's dome to play alongside one of MLB's best offenses. Chapman not only brings his bat but also elite glove to a team that is in need of infield help after the departure of All-Star Marcus Semien.
Through five seasons, Chapman carries a slash-line of .243./.330/.478 with a 120 wRC+. He has accumulated 20.2 fWAR since his 2017 call-up and really was only traded due to Oakland's cheap ownership sending away athletes in their prime just before their initial control is over. Matt Olson and Chris Bassitt were also recently traded with Sean Murphy and several other pitchers likely out as well.
It's clear these teams are going on opposite paths as the 2022 season begins. Let's figure out what that means for Chapman's fantasy baseball value this year as we continue to break down all the key offseason moves in the baseball world.
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Teams Going in Different Directions
In 2021, Toronto ranked second in offense by wRC+ while Oakland sat at a respectable 8th. While regression/injuries could certainly drop Toronto significantly, they will still hover around the top of the league due to their talent across their lineup. Also, with their goal of winning this season, Toronto would very likely make trades prior to the deadline to improve their roster if necessary.
Oakland, on the other hand, has completely given up as alluded to earlier with mention of their teardown still in progress. They will feature several bench players from last season in their starting lineup along with cheap free agents and prospects they attempt to gauge for the future. They are almost guaranteed to sit towards the bottom of the league in offense.
At a quick glance, this is how Oakland vs Toronto's starting lineups looks with each player's projected 2022 OPS (via FanGraphs):
Oakland
- Tony Kemp - .741 OPS
- Elvis Andrus - .655 OPS
- Seth Brown - .722 OPS
- Stephen Piscotty - .694 OPS
- Sean Murphy - .735 OPS
- Eric Thames - .707 OPS
- Chad Pinder - .727 OPS
- Kevin Smith - .704 OPS
- Cristian Pache - .661 OPS
Toronto
- George Springer - .845 OPS
- Bo Bichette - .840 OPS
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - .988 OPS
- Teoscar Hernandez - .815 OPS
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - .790 OPS
- Matt Chapman - .768 OPS
- Randal Grichuk - .748 OPS
- Cavan Biggio - .736 OPS
- Danny Jansen - .759 OPS
Not to mention, the improved park dimensions! Here are the respective park factors from 2021 right-handed hitters (Dunedin not included for TOR):
Oakland
Single - 23rd
Double - 11th
Triple - 8th
HR - 24th
Toronto
Single - 2nd
Double - 8th
Triple - 7th
HR - 13th
Rogers Centre outplays Oakland's park in every facet plus there is no marine layer to worry about. Toronto recently added a humidor but so have most parks across the MLB recently as to balance out balls.
What's most important with Chapman, aside from the boost in his team context, is his own health. Chapman underwent hip surgery in the 2021 offseason which severely limited his offensive production. Chapman looked like a shell of himself in 2021 by posting career-lows in OPS, wRC+, Hard Hit Percentage, ISO, and several other important metrics. His defense luckily did not falter but even if it were to have, most would understand after major surgery.
Chapman is also a huge benefit to a Toronto offense that lost Marcus Semien and his 131 wRC+ last season at the top of the lineup. Chapman's 4 healthy seasons in the MLB have seen him produce wRC+ years from 110, 116, 125, and 139. Assuming that Chapman bounces back to a mean-level of performance of 123 wRC+ from his 2020 season prior to his injury, that drop-off from losing Semien is much more marginal. Also, it's not out of the realm of possibility to hit the higher range of outcomes here if 100% healthy! Chapman's potential in Toronto is huge.
Bats towards the top of the lineup like Guerrero Jr, Bichette, and Hernandez benefit greatly from Chapman's presence as there is another talented bat to drive them home. Toronto may not repeat the 2nd-best offense but their floor is significantly higher going into the season and they absolutely have the potential to finish as number one given the mix of youth and talent present. There is a chance they have not even begun to peak!
Give Matt Chapman a mulligan for 2021 and buy-in hard at his deflated ADP in every fantasy baseball format. He will be playing every day in a significantly better lineup and park while close to 100% healthy.
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