X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

MLB Pitcher Prospect Graduates - Sophomore Fantasy Baseball Outlooks (AL East)

Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Matthew looks at four AL East prospect pitchers and evaluates their fantasy baseball values. These fantasy baseball prospect pitchers are now MLB sophomores.

In the first installment of a 6-part series focused on pitchers who exhausted rookie eligibility during the '22 MLB season, I review how the pitching fundamentals of select '22 American League East pitchers have evolved over time and use that information to forecast their MLB futures.

Fundamentals will be quantified using my Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) pitcher evaluation model.

Let us begin with individual analyses of four key American League East 2022 pitcher prospect graduates whose surnames happen to begin with the same letter: Shane Baz, Brayan Bello, Kyle Bradish, and Felix Bautista.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Quick Overview of FaBIO

An earlier RotoBaller article more fully explains the FaBIO methodology. Every plate appearance is sorted into one of 12 event-type bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull OFFB, Center OFFB, Oppo OFFB, Pull LD, Center LD, Oppo LD, Pull GB, Center GB, Oppo GB) and the pitcher is charged with league's average runs value for that event type.

We eventually wind up with loads of fundamentals-rooted percentile ratings expressed on a 100 to 0 scale where 97 is plus plus, 84 is plus, 50 is average, 16 is minus, and three is minus minus.

The all-in-one Overall Rating (based on expected run avoidance per batter faced over all of that pitcher's batters faced) will be used primarily as filtering criteria with relatively more attention paid to how the three core sub-Ratings of Control (or CTL, based on BB+HBP per batters faced), Strikeout (or K, based on K per batters faced), and Batted Ball Profile (based on expected run avoidance per batted ball) combine to produce Overall Rating.

 

Shane Baz, Tampa Bay Rays

shane baz fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB prospects

Rays immediately flipped Baz from sinking the fastball ('18: 98 GB, 93 OFFB Avoid) to riding it ('19: 15 GB, 13 OFFB Avoid) after acquiring him from the Pirates. Since then, the batted balls have been distributed more evenly between the air and ground. Baz did not break out on the FaBIO scales until early '21 AA when he rated 100 OVERALL with triple plus 97 CTL/98 K/85 BATTED BALL PROFILE slashie over seven starts.

The '21 strikeout train (100 K) kept rolling over another 178 batters faced in AAA around slippages in CTL and BATTED BALL PROFILE before an end-of-regular-season debut and postseason audition with first-place Rays. He passed that MLB trial with flying colors and ultimately put up another triple plus slashie (86 CTL/98 K/95 BATTED BALL PROFILE) against 62 regular and postseason batters.

The expectations bar was sky high as Spring camp opened but that excitement was tempered when he required the removal of a loose body from the throwing elbow. He returned to AAA action in mid-May and rejoined the MLB rotation in June. A UCL sprain in the same elbow effectively ended his season circa the mid-July All-Star Break as attempts to rehab the injury proved unsuccessful before committing to Tommy John surgery at the end of September to treat the tear.

While Baz has demonstrated impressive K ability over his first 179 MLB batters faced, two flags appear in the '22 and '21 MLB batted ball profiles. Three of the last four league ('22 MLB, '22 AAA, '21 AAA) LD Avoid Ratings are red, suggesting that his fastball arsenal lacks certain movement qualities (horizontal action?) that make on-barrel contact less likely. Second, in both MLB campaigns, his outfield flyball contact skews very early (Pull OFFB Avoid<<<OFFB Avoid; note that in both cases a rather substantial ISO on Batted Balls penalty was paid for that transgression). Per those aerial pulls, there stand to be issues with fastball effective velocity playing down from its average 96 to 97 mph gun readings (poorer location and/or deception) and/or hanging sliders and changeups.

After delaying Tommy John surgery until later September, Baz will not appear in '23. If he can recover from the recent spate of elbow problems (will have three option years remaining to begin '24), Baz projects to be a plus to plus plus strikeouts MLB SP with average to half plus control but some batted ball profile concerns that could limit his future MLB SP ceiling to SP2 rather than the preferred SP1 one that seemed apt before '22. Such an end result would have him resembling another Rays righty from the past, '15-'17 Chris Archer. More risk-averse dynasty and keeper league owners should weigh stashing him until '24 versus trading him in efforts to address a more pressing need on the '23 squad or looming roster thin area for future seasons.

 

Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox

Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Bello burst onto FaBIO's radar in '18 via a triple plus 91 CTL/97 K/92 BATTED BALL PROFILE line in a first pro season that was spent mostly in the Dominican Summer League but ended with a 19-batter cup of coffee stateside with Boston's Gulf Coast League affiliate. Red Sox boldly assigned him to full-season A in April '19 and the fundamentals graded out subpar then over a fuller season.

Upon return of MiLB in '21, he was assigned to the A+ affiliate where he put up 92 CTL/99 K/91 BATTED BALL PROFILE line rather like the '18 debut one over six games, beckoning a promotion to AA; relative to the A+ Ratings CTL & BATTED BALL PROFILE (IFFB and LD Avoid, especially) sank over 280 AA batters faced. Bello was soon 40-man-rostered to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

K and BATTED BALL PROFILE rated plus plus to plus again in a '22 AA return and each fundamental impressively improved a few ticks during a subsequent AAA stint. Those AAA out-generation fundamentals earned him a July MLB debut and he would go on to post a very respectable league-average 52 OVERALL 12 CTL/47 K/85 BATTED BALL PROFILE line versus 268 big league batters. BATTED BALL PROFILE translated almost fully from AAA to MLB while CTL and K each backed up one to two standard deviations, an unsurprising result for the rookie debut of a starting pitcher.

Control and strikeouts should improve with MLB SP experience. Average control is realistic, eventually. How far strikeouts venture from a present MLB SP average level to a less realistic ceiling of plus plus is a function of how well each of the sliders and changeups play for whiffs. The slider seems especially key as it is the safer route to K versus righthanded batters (RHB); without those K, he would lean heavier on the change for K, undermining the expected run avoidance of a batted ball profile else anchored in plus plus ground balls by increasing frequency of aerial pulls (a dicey outcome in Fenway Park versus RHB).

A more extreme groundballer like this would ideally have a third baseman and shortstop who each skew rangier with stronger, accurate arms; for '23, he will instead have recently extended bat-first Rafael Devers at third and who knows at short. For this reason, he may continue to skew volatile at avoiding hits (AVG) on batted balls for a spell but a well-established avoidance of extra bases (ISO) on them seen in the far right column seems unlikely to evaporate.

The MLB SP ceiling for Bello resembles how Dominican Republic countryman Luis Castillo profiled on the FaBIO scales in '17 and '19 with groundballs and strikeouts aplenty. A more reachable typical SP season outcome would mirror 2022 Kyle Wright [73 OVERALL 57 CTL/59 K/83 BATTED BALL PROFILE (96 GB/...). Full re-draft league players may want to hold off a year on Bello but keeper and dynasty leaguers ought to add this groundballer who may rack up a fair amount of strikeouts, too, to the fantasy organization sooner.

 

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles

Angels selected Bradish in the fourth round of the '18 MLB Draft out of New Mexico State. As a junior, he amounted to a wilder strikeout-specialized SP who induced groundballs at a slightly above-average rate. He sat out the rest of that pro season then spent all of '19 at their A+ affiliate where he mustered only a 41 OVERALL via a 19 CTL/72 K/25 BATTED BALL PROFILE; most all of the '19 A+ downfall relative to the '18 D1 line lay in K and LD Avoid, and Orioles saw enough to land him and three other pitching prospects in a swap for Dylan Bundy.

When MLB returned in '21, the Orioles sent him to AA and he binged on K earning a rapid promotion to AAA, where he posted an 89 OVERALL featuring more balance between K (87) and BATTED BALL PROFILE (80) outcomes. Bradish claimed a 40-man roster spot that offseason and got off to a monster start upon return to AAA in April (between those three starts and a July rehab appearance, the AAA slashie was nearly "triple plus plus" per 95 CTL/98 K/100 BATTED BALL PROFILE), beckoning an MLB debut at the end of the month not long after his first option year had officially been lost.

Bradish went on to face 509 MLB batters at an average rate of 22 per game and post a respectable 48 OVERALL and 16 CTL/58 K/59 BATTED BALL PROFILE slashie. Weakest fundamental as an MLB SP seems surer to be control. Between the MLB debut 16 CTL and what preceded '22, future marks oscillating around 30 (half minus) are likeliest for MLB SP seasons to come. And that makes staying above average at each of K and BATTED BALL PROFILE a priority.

The most favorable aspect of the batted ball profile can be spotted in the Pull OFFB Avoid and ISO columns; from '17-'22, only one of those marks is below 55 and that one was over just 52 batters. He is difficult to elevate to the pull-field (fastballs play fast and offspeed pitch selections and locations are aerial-pull-averse) and thus above average at avoiding extra bases on batted balls. The mystery with the batted ball profile may be movement as he was very weak at IFFB and LD Avoid in MLB after rating very strong at that duo in '22 & '21 AAA. With IFFB and LD Avoid duos more in line with expectations that come with half-plus groundballs, it becomes realistic to project Bradish as an MLB SP, who is half to full plus at each of BATTED BALL PROFILE and K, albeit with half minus CTL.

Comparable MLB RHSPs with this bias from recent seasons include Sonny Gray and pre-'22 Charlie Morton. Cast Bradish, like Bello (who has a few ticks more ceiling at each of CTL, K, and BATTED BALL PROFILE versus Bradish), as another MLB SP teeth cutter who may not be overly attractive for '23 full redraft leagues but should be very in the picture for keeper and dynasty leaguers who are seeking SP3 to SP2 fantasy production for '24 and after.

 

Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles

FaBIO history of Bautista dates all the way back to '13 when the then-Marlin debuted in Dominican Summer League. Miami released him in January '15. He was signed to the Orioles affiliate there just before the end of '16 and would break out as a 22-year-old full-blown '17 SP in a fourth season at the level. Since then, while working as a shorter RP, he has rated around to beyond full plus at all stops save for a '19 season split between the A- and A affiliate.

Maintaining an above-average CTL Rating in '23 MLB may be challenging per the pre-MLB marks at that fundamental. If the free passes climb, it would be advisable for LD Avoid to rate higher than the 43 from '22 and that seems doable per what went down in the '21 MiLB. The reverse OHB/SHB splits of late logically stem from the offspeed arsenal's splitter-over-slider bias. With no obvious threat lurking to displace him from closing (the most-equipped candidate, LHP prospect DL Hall, is unlikely to deploy as a ninth-inning specialist at this early stage of MLB career), Bautista simply needs to keep the K+IFFB rolling in and prevent the CTL+LD Avoid+Pull OFFB Avoid stars from lining up unfavorably to hold the job for the next few seasons.

 

Other AL East Pitcher Prospect Graduates

Bautista staffmates Bryan Baker and Mike Baumann also lost prospect eligibility in '22. Relative unknown Baker collected nine holds and one save in a very solid wire-to-wire debut season; he is likely a better IFFB getter and LD Avoider than the '22 FaBIO line implies so look for his hit (AVG) avoidance on batted balls to rise and more hold if not also a few save opportunities to come his way.

Baumann is down to one option year and expect the Orioles to do what they can to preserve it in '23; per a steep decline from '22 AAA plus plus K to '22 MLB subminus K, he likely slots best in a groundball-heavy, weak-contact-inducer short RP role but his '23 squad instead figures to coax more batters per game out of him as a longman to swingman.

Red Sox farmhands Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski ranked among FaBIO's best MiLB SP by OVERALL Rating in '21, with the former a K+CTL star and the latter a BATTED BALL PROFILE+CTL star. Crawford struggled with most all fundamentals in a '22 that was 75% spent in MLB.

Winckowski replicated his CTL and GB-anchored BATTED BALL PROFILE success in AAA around an uptick in K but could only translate the GB success to MLB; like Bello, he too may require a better left side of the infield than the '23 Red Sox will afford. As with Baumann before, each of Crawford and Winckowski will likely be charged in '23 to face more MLB batters per game than they ideally would per their present limitations in fundamentals.

Between injuries and struggles to carry key fundamentals to MLB, any hopes of Clarke Schmidt becoming an MLB SP seem dashed; an MLB 35 K Rating at 8 BF/G calls into question whether an impact RP outcome is attainable. Sidearm RHRP Scott Effross oddly posted reverse OHB/SHB splits in his first two MLB seasons; plus CTL, half plus K, and half plus BATTED BALL PROFILE results ahead with retention of that unique ability to stymie lefthanded batters would make him a useful holds collector again (16 in '22) after a '23 already lost to Tommy John surgery.

Extreme flyballer Ron Marinaccio oddly does not induce the infielder flyballs (IFFB) that typically come with that approach (and are equivalent to strikeouts in run expectancy, importantly) yet somehow very avoids line drives despite most all batted balls being lofted aerially; CTL seems surer to rise with MLB experience, casting him as a seventh-to-eighth-inning K specialist MLB short RP candidate in a season or two.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front Row Start, but Probably Won't Sustain It
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience, but It Probably Won't Help
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014 Subbing for Denny Hamlin
Erik Jones

Despite Increased Intermediate Speed, Mexico City Will Likely Be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports's Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr's Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualified 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer, but Still a Longshot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Tyler Reddick

Has a Lot of Work To Do To Be Competitive in Mexico
AJ Allmendinger

Struggling to Find Speed in Mexico City
Chris Buescher

Says Car is "Bad Fast" Heading into Mexico City Race
Michael McDowell

Confident Heading into Viva Mexico 250
Ryan Blaney

Finds Speed in Second Practice at Mexico City
Alex Bowman

Still Sore After Wreck at Michigan
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Hunter Brown

s Records 12 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Royce Lewis

to be Placed on Injured List
Byron Buxton

Exits Early on Saturday
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Jacob Misiorowski

Expected to Make Next Start
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Charlie Morton

Continues Good Work With 10 Strikeouts
James Wood

Homers, Drives in Four
Agustín Ramírez

Agustin Ramirez Homers Twice to Snap Skid
Isaac Paredes

Astros Hopeful Isaac Paredes Can Avoid the Injured List
Royce Lewis

Dealing With Hamstring Strain
Kodai Senga

Diagnosed With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain
Gleyber Torres

Goes Deep Twice on Friday
Jonathan India

Leaves With Apparent Shoulder Injury
Evan Carter

Leaves Early With Wrist Soreness
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
A.J. Puk

Pauses Throwing Program
Matt Chapman

Can Begin Rehabbing in a Week
Logan Gilbert

Next Start Could Come in the Big Leagues
Cam Akers

Joining Saints
Yordan Alvarez

Still Not Hitting
Michael Mayer

to Get More Involved
Aaron Rodgers

DK Metcalf Building Chemistry with Aaron Rodgers
Colston Loveland

Likely to be Primary Tight End
Jacob Wilson

Returns on Friday
Justin Martinez

Out 12-13 Months With UCL Sprain
Will Johnson

Returns to Practice
Harold Fannin Jr.

Could Have Big Role in Rookie Season
Quentin Johnston

Still Running With Starters
Rashawn Slater

Takes Part in Minicamp
Jack Bech

Mostly Working With Second-Team Offense
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Chris Kreider

Ducks Acquire Chris Kreider From Rangers
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Cale Makar

Wins His Second Norris Trophy
Lane Hutson

Voted NHL's Best Rookie
CGY

Adam Klapka Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Considered a Game-Time Call Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Kevin Porter Jr.

Likely to Decline Player Option
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Kevin Durant

Knicks Not Looking to Trade for Kevin Durant
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
Darius Garland

Kings Targeting Darius Garland
Kevin Durant

Expected to Be Moved Soon
Corey Perry

Nets Power-Play Goal in Monday's Loss
Sean O'Malley

Submitted For The First Time In His Career
Merab Dvalishvili

Defends Bantamweight Belt At UFC 316
Julianna Peña

Julianna Pena No Longer A Champion
Kayla Harrison

Is The New Champion
Joe Pyfer

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum

Drops Decision
Patchy Mix

Drops Decision In His UFC Debut
Mario Bautista

Extends His Win Streak
Vicente Luque

Submitted At UFC 316
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF