RADIO
I think we often get the term "sleeper" confused. A lot of the rhetoric around "sleepers" seems to center on the long-shots who might hit big and bring you massive value something close to a late-round dart throw. However, I think "sleepers" are simply just players being "slept on" or not getting enough respect.
Obviously, that only partially applies when talking about defenses because there are no early or mid-round defenses. For the most part, all defenses are drafted within the last four rounds, and I would highly encourage limiting that to the last two rounds. So when we talk about sleepers for defense, as we are today, I will just be looking at DST units that aren't getting the respect they deserve. Some of these will be just outside the top-10 and others will be a bit lower, but they are all units that I think have a good chance of finishing the season inside the top-10 overall.
As you'll see more regularly from me during my weekly DST streamer column, I've created a DST Rankings metric that weighs together all of the stats I've come to believe are most important for determining if a defense will be a strong fantasy unit: pressure rate, sacks, quarterback hurries, drives ending in a turnover, drives ending in an offensive score, and yards allowed per play. You can see the whole leaderboard based on last year's numbers here. One final reminder that these are season-long picks, not necessarily for Week 1. If you want draft targets, you can find mine here.
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Cleveland Browns
The Browns are one of my favorite defenses coming into this season. They finished 16th in my defensive rankings from last year, but a lot of that had to do with injuries making it hard for them to get after the passer. They finished 16th in sacks and 24th in pressure rate, which capped their overall upside. They were a top-10 unit in terms of creating turnovers, which led to some strong weeks, but my optimism comes from the moves they made in the offseason. Since the end of last season, Cleveland has signed Jadeveon Clowney, Malik Jackson, John Johnson, Anthony Walker, Ronnie Harrison Jr., and Troy Hill to add to a defense that already features some elite talent in Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward.
I expect the Browns, who are a well-coached team, to easily push into the top-10 with the new talent in the fold. I also think they'll benefit from their offense hitting its stride towards the end of the season. With the Browns' offense looking more explosive, teams will be forced to pass often to keep up, which will create more opportunities for sacks and turnovers from this defense. They have a tough first game against the Chiefs, but then follow it up with games against Houston, Chicago, and Minnesota, which I'm absolutely here for.
Denver Broncos
I covered them in my DST Draft Targets article
The Broncos have always been a formidable unit, but they struggled a little bit towards the end of last year, which is understandable when you get zero games from Von Miller, seven games from A.J. Bouye, six games from Mike Purcell, and three games from Jurrell Casey. Obviously, the biggest difference-maker there is Miller, who is one of the premier defenders in the NFL and should be fully healthy entering the 2021 season. That alone is a massive upgrade for a defense that still finished ninth in sacks with 42 on the season.
The Broncos will no longer have Bouye, but they brought in Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby to a secondary that includes Kareem Jackson and ball-hawk Justin Simmons. That should make the secondary slightly above average at worst, which is more than enough when you are pairing Von Miller with Bradley Chubb and Dre'Mont Jones and also blocking up the interior with Mike Purcell. If the Broncos can finish just outside the top-10 last year while missing the level of talent that they were, I fully expect them to return to being an impact defense week in and week out if they remain fully healthy in 2021. Plus, look at those first three weeks. Woo boy.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins finished as the fourth-ranked defense last year by FantasyPros rankings and eighth-ranked by my formula, but I don't see them in the top-10 anywhere. I know that some people view their performance as flukey because they were so turnover-dependent, but I don't think that's fair to Brian Flores and company. Flores was a great defensive coordinator who has clearly brought a turnover-happy scheme to Miami. Considering the talent he still has on that side of the ball, why should we assume they won't be similarly effective in inducing turnovers? They might not finish first overall in drives ending in a turnover as they did in 2020, but they don't need to in order to be an impactful defense.
I am expecting bigger jumps from young, talented players like Christian Watkins and Raekwon Davis, which will help a talented secondary led by Xavien Howard, Eric Rowe, and Byron Jones. The Dolphins also signed Jason McCourty to start and guide first-round draft pick Jevon Holland, which should round out a ball-hawking group that can earn you fantasy points in a hurry. The true test for the Dolphins will be a weak linebacking corps, but I trust this coaching staff and think they have this team moving clearly in the right direction, which is scary to me as a Bills fan.
Los Angeles Chargers
I covered them in my DST Draft Targets article
My interest in the Chargers stems primarily from them being overlooked pretty much everywhere, thanks to their poor season last year. However, there are a few major differences to the 2020 team that has me back in on the Chargers. For one, they hired Brandon Staley as their head coach right after Staley coordinated the Rams' dominant defense. He will surely have a hand in shaping the Chargers' defensive vision and scheme, so I'm confident he can take a defense anchored by Joey Bosa, Linval Joseph, Derwin James, and Chris Harris Jr. and make it a talented unit.
Another reason I'm in on the Chargers is because of one of the names I mentioned above: Derwin James. The talented 24-year-old missed all of 2020 with a torn meniscus and having him back drastically re-shapes the Chargers' defense. Add to that the fact that Joey Bosa was only able to make 10 starts last year and Chris Harris Jr. was only able to make nine and you realize that the Chargers were without all three of their best defenders for over a third of the season last year. With those three back, plus the emergence of Kenneth Murray and the arrival of second-round pick Asante Samuel Jr., I'm buying a return to form for the formerly feisty Chargers defense.
Arizona Cardinals
When you add J.J. Watt, you become a better defense. OK, I know it's not that simple, but it's also kind of that simple. Yes, the Cardinals lost Patrick Peterson, but bringing in Malcolm Butler to take his place is not exactly much of a drop-off at this stage in their careers. Consider also that the Cardinals finished 10th in FantasyPros rankings last season and seventh based on my formula, and I think you're getting a relatively strong unit for almost no draft capital.
The Cardinals' scheme is conducive to sacks, as they finished fifth in the NFL with 48 last year, again, BEFORE adding Watt to pair with Chandler Jones, who only was able to play five games for the Cardinals in 2020. That's a pretty ferocious set of defensive ends; yet, the Cardinals have talent in the middle of the field too with their last two first-round picks - Zaven Collins and Isaiah Simmons. Plus, Budda Baker roams in the secondary, which gives the Cardinals talent at all levels.
Much like the Browns, this offense will likely force teams to pass a lot to keep up and while the Cardinals may give up a fair number of points during the season, I expect them to rack up sacks and provide enough consistent production to push to be a top-1o defensive unit by the end of the season.
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