2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Outfield

March 13, 2020

Keeper values and tiered rankings for dynasty baseball leagues. JB reveals his keeper rankings at the outfield position for 2020 fantasy baseball and explains his methodology.

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values." In the marketing world, Value can be defined as the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants. The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.

The product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2019 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2020). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.

Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12 team league data, 2019 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. I've already unveiled my rankings for First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop. and even behind the plate. But now we move to the spacious Outfield.

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JB's Keeper Value System

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Outfield

Tier One

Wow, what a group. I know, "How is Ronald Acuna not number one?" The formula has always valued first-round talents anywhere outside first-round costs, and it's hard to argue with Cody Bellinger. Belly put his sophomore "slump" season way back in the rear-view mirror in 2019 with career highs in all five Roto categories. He finished top-10 in HR, R, and RBI while adding 15 SB and a .305 BA to boot. There are really no red flags here as he also boasted top-10 LD%, Hard%, and K/BB%. Bellinger is a consensus top-five hitter in 2020 and getting to keep him anywhere outside the first round is a huge value.

First off, let's acknowledge the greatness of Acuna to score two points lower than Yordan Alvarez despite a 22-round difference in cost. At 22 years old with a great lineup and 40/40 talent, it certainly makes sense considering anything past the first pick overall is a steal on draft day. But Acuna is a no-brainer, of course, so let's talk about the other 22-year old, the one that hit 50 HR with 149 RBI between AAA and MLB in 2019.

We only saw Alvarez for half a season at the big leagues, but it proved to be an easy transition for him as he hit 27 of those 50 bombs and boasted a .313/.412/.655 slash. The bottom line is I have zero concerns about this kid's ability to continue absolutely mashing the ball. All his Exit Velo stats are top-notch, he has hit at every level, and he plays in a great lineup (with or without trash cans). The only downside with Yordan is the position eligibility. He only made nine starts in the OF in 2019, which is why many sites including NFBC only have him as UT/DH-eligible for 2020.

After reportedly playing through knee pain all last season, Alvarez claims the legs feel "fine" for 2020. However, he has already been scratched from a Grapefruit League game for knee soreness this year. Whether or not he makes enough appearances in the OF this year to gain/retain the OF eligibility certainly plays a large role in his future value. As the 25th-ranked player overall in RotoBaller's Rankings it's easy to understand the Tier One keeper value score for 2020.

Tier Two

I know tier one was an elite unit, but tier two may be the most fun keeper tier we've seen this year. Two of the top players in the sport mixed in with numerous up-and-coming youngsters already making their mark in fantasy. The first guy representing the loaded tier is Ketel Marte. Marte shocked the industry in 2019 with 32 HR, 10 SB, and a .329 BA as he finished top-20 overall in standard leagues. It was nothing short of amazing, especially considering he played 119 games with the Mariners in 2016 and hit ONE HR. Whether you believe in a repeat or not, RotoBaller has him ranked 40th overall, which, combined with his position-eligibility bonus, makes for a fantastic keeper choice in the late rounds.

The next chunk of tier two is the early-round elites. Mike Trout and Christian Yelich despite being first-round keepers both boast impressive scores which show that having those bats at literally any cost is a bargain in 2020. Acuna obviously bested the two by a fairly shocking margin, which I would attribute mostly to age and durability.

The third outfielder in the bunch to rep a tier-two score despite an early-round ADP is the beloved Juan Soto. Like Acuna, Soto flashed enough potential and skill in 2018 for fantasy owners to buy-in for the sophomore campaign, and he certainly did not disappoint. He finished the year with a 110/34/110/12/.282 line and a World Series ring. His underlying numbers are just as brilliant as they are on the surface. He almost replicated his fantastic BB/K numbers to a tee from his rookie season; his HR/FB% actually decreased two points, he increased his FB% by nine points, pulled the ball more, and increased his hard contact rate. There is nothing to dislike, and the kid is still only 21 years old.

The remainder tier two keeper scores belong to the late rounders. Austin Meadows, Luis Robert, Jorge Soler, and Trey Mancini all enjoyed massive break-outs in 2019 and present golden opportunities for those fortunate enough to lock them down in their keeper leagues. Meadows had every bit of a season as Soto had at the plate, going 33/12 with a .292 batting average for the Rays after being traded from the Pirates the previous year. The projections obviously aren't ready to buy-in to a repeat like they are with Soto but you can't deny the potential... I mean we've already seen it once.

Luis Robert is slated to not only get his first taste of the bigs this season but immediately slot into the starting lineup in Chicago on Opening Day. The question remains of how he will handle major league pitching, but there is no doubting the talent that led to 24 HR and 28 SB in LESS THAN 500 PAs in the minors last year.

Tier Three

While it doesn't contain two of the top-three players in baseball like the previous tier, tier three is almost just as interesting. Mookie Betts will be playing his first season away from Fenway Park but joining another very potent offense in LA. Eloy Jimenez didn't quite deliver on his 2019 preseason hype, but with the known talent and power in that exciting offense, a 10th-round cost is still enticing and a bargain compared to his sixth-round 2020 ADP. Then we have some familiar late-round options in Max Kepler and Franmil Reyes who both possess great power and run production, and if the BA can stay respectable, they are poised for massive campaigns.

Jeff McNeil just misses the second tier from his UDFA ADP. Like Ketel Marte, this isn't the first time you've seen McNeil's name this series as he qualifies for second, third, and outfield on many fantasy sites for 2020. In his first full season at the big league level, McNeil hit an impressive .318 with an equally impressive 13.2 K%. His 11.2 Soft% was good for fifth-lowest in baseball, and RotoBaller projects him as a top-100 fantasy player again in 2020. Again, the multi-position eligibility is a huge bonus.

The biggest name that jumps off the table in tier three for me is Ramon Laureano. I was on-board the hype train last season because who doesn't love late-round 20/20 threats? But unfortunately, the injury bug hit quickly, replacements were needed, and Laureano hit just .234 through April so he was the first one to go. Of course, he did finish with 24 HR, 13 SB, and a .288 BA in 481 PA. He missed time due to a stress "reaction" in his shin, but I mean if he sees 600 healthy PA we could be talking about a 30/20 season.

Not to be forgotten, Laureano is also a phenomenal fielder. He possesses a rare blend of power/speed that is usually reserved for the first three rounds of a draft and will be hitting near the top of a sneaky good lineup in 2020. Still just 25 years old, Laureano is one of my favorite OF targets in drafts this season and I would be thrilled to own him in a keeper league anywhere in the second half of the draft.

Tier Four

We've reached our first player that won't even be on an Opening Day roster. Despite not knowing when Jo Adell will join the Angels, he still just misses out on being a tier-three keeper score by two points. That is quite a testament to the production that is expected from the 20-year-old prospect. Across three levels of minor leagues in 2018, Adell hit 20 HR and stole 15 bases in barely over 400 PA. The strikeout rates will have to improve before the BA is truly helpful in fantasy, but he undoubtedly has 20/20 potential and at some point in 2020 will join Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani in a great Angels lineup.

Adell is not the only 20/20 threat in this tier. Danny Santana came out of nowhere last season and reached the milestone in just 511 PA. With Delino DeShields traded to Cleveland this offseason, the switch-hitter looks to be entrenched as the starting CF in Texas, making for a serious steal in keeper leagues. Starling Marte is an automatic combo-threat at this point and now gets to play half his games at Chase Field in the desert atop a much more dangerous lineup than he was accustomed to in Pittsburgh. We've seen him drafted as early as the late first round in fantasy leagues this year so obviously people are buying into the change of scenery.

Scott Kingery and Victor Robles both were fairly close to hitting 20/20 in 2019. Kingery looks to be the everyday second baseman for the Phillies, so as long as he can get on base at a reasonable rate he should have no problem getting there in 2020 and represents a nice value if you can keep him late after going undrafted in most 2019 leagues. Robles will steal 30 bases this season. With just a touch of good luck in the HR/FB department, he could very well hit 20 HR. He is still only 22 years old, and with the loss of Anthony Rendon this off-season, the Nats could slot him at the top of the lineup this season which would make Robles a monster draft pick/keeper selection.

Tier Five

We've reached the point where the value isn't great, but the players still can be. Nick Castellanos for instance, hopes to carry over a strong second half in Chicago to his new home at Great American Ball Park where he should see a handful of those would-be doubles clearing the fences.

Tommy Edman isn't on a new team, but he will see his first full season at the Major-League level after showing a very impressive pop/speed combo in 349 PA last year, finishing with 11 HR and 19 SB. He should be on the field nearly every day in a super-utility role, which will also add some great position-eligibility bonuses throughout the season. The value here could be much higher than the formula projects, pending on what projection system you are looking at. THE BAT projects 11 HR, 13 SB, with a .265 BA while ATC is much higher with 14/20/.275. With speed being at a premium these days, and position eligibility bumps, Edman is at the very worst a very intriguing keeper option in the late rounds.

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