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2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Third Base

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants. The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.

The product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2019 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2020). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.

Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12 team league data, 2019 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. I've already unveiled my rankings for First Base and Second Base. Now, let's get to the hot corner.

Be sure to check all of our preseason fantasy baseball rankings for Roto, Points, H2H, dynasty, best ball, prospects and more:

 

JB's Keeper Value System

TIER SCORE DESCRIPTION
1 >100 Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT at all costs.
2 75-99 Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept.
3 50-74 You are gaining good value with these players. A majority of good keepers options tend to fall into this category.
4 25-49 Minimal value. The value exists, but not as much as your opponents are likely receiving with their selections. Consider if your options are limited.
5 0-24 Break-even point. Keeping these players will likely hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding enough value. Don't waste a Keeper selection here.
6 <0 The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away.

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.

 

2020 Keeper Value Rankings - Third Base

POS RANK KEEPER
TIER
PLAYER/TEAM ADP (ROUND) SCORE
1 1 Rafael Devers BOS 12 104.04
2 2 DJ LeMahieu NYY 19 75.57
3 3 Jeff McNeil NYM 23 68.44
4 3 Anthony Rendon LAA 4 65.96
5 3 Yoan Moncada CWS 14 65.62
6 3 Miguel Sano MIN 23 64.05
7 3 Alex Bregman HOU 2 63.14
8 3 Danny Santana TEX 23 58.30
9 4 Eduardo Escobar ARI 15 41.81
10 4 Ryan McMahon COL 23 37.06
11 4 Yuli Gurriel HOU 16 35.13
12 4 Tommy Edman STL 23 34.97
13 4 Hunter Dozier KCR 23 34.01
14 4 Matt Chapman OAK 9 33.11
15 4 Mike Moustakas CIN 12 30.66
16 4 J.D. Davis NYM 23 29.18
17 5 Josh Donaldson MIN 8 22.28
18 5 Max Muncy LAD 10 21.25
19 5 Renato Nunez BAL 23 15.33
20 5 Scott Kingery PHI 23 15.18
21 5 Nolan Arenado COL 1 14.39
22 5 Yandy Diaz TBR 23 2.39
23 5 Giovanny Urshela NYY 23 2.035

 

Tier One

Alone at the top, sits my beloved Rafael Devers. I have loved Raffy Big Scoops for some time now as a Sox fan and had been eagerly awaiting his breakout. We all knew it would happen eventually and after what I saw from him in the 2018 playoffs and World Series, I knew it was coming very soon. That led to me trading my 13th-round Jose Ramirez for a 17th round Rafael Devers and catching all sorts of hell from my league for it. But then, 2019 Devers emerged. The breakout season ended with a sixth overall fantasy ranking; he was one of only five hitters to hit 30 HR, score 100+ R, score 100+ RBI, and hit over .300. The hype was short-lived for Devers compared to other prospects, so the post-hype discount came rather quickly, and now we get to reap the rewards in keeper leagues.

 

Tier Two

We just cannot get away from this LeMahieu guy. First base, second base, third base - there he is, sitting in the second keeper value tier. Interestingly enough, he did score highest when ranked against first basemen and lowest here as a third baseman if that tells you anything about position scarcity for 2020. *Whispers, "First Base is not as deep as we are accustomed to".

I already admitted how wrong I was about LeMahieu for 2019 in the first base article of this series, but I am not too proud to do it again. Despite leaving Coors Field, it turns out that short right field in New York is made for his opposite-field approach. Half of his 26 HR went oppo-taco in 2019, and 19 were hit at Yankee Stadium. Even if the balls lose some juice this season, LeMahieu is still going to rake at home as if he never left Coors. ATC projects him to hit 19 HR with a .295 BA in 2020 which despite feeling a tad bearish would still play significantly as a late-round keeper while hitting in that monster of a lineup in the Bronx.

 

Tier Three

Now that Devers and LeMahieu are out of the way we start reaching the main body. The first three of the third tier really stick out to me. Anthony Rendon had a very similar season to Rafael Devers, but he's been raking for three years now. He led the league in RBI (127), won a World Series, and now gets to hit behind possibly the greatest baseball player of all time after signing with the Angels this off-season.

Yoan Moncada is always a very intriguing name in keeper leagues. We have awaited his break out for some time now, and I think it's safe to say it happened in 2019. He hit 25 HR, stole 10 bases, and boasted a clean .315 BA. I also think it's safe to say a .406 BABIP is unsustainable. Regardless, the White Sox have a new-look offense surrounding Moncada and he has the tools to turn in another top-75 fantasy season in 2020.

Miguel Sano and Danny Santana were both discussed in the first base rankings as two different examples of late-round ADP. A quick recap: Sano got hurt before the season last year, which created an ADP loophole, while Santana wasn't hurt, he was just never any good until he burst onto the scene off the waiver wires. Either way, you probably have both of them for cheap in your keeper leagues.

Alex Bregman is one score I'd probably argue against the computer. I personally need to see what kind of effects this scandal has on all the Astros hitters this year before I can invest in them again. I play things like this overly safe - always have. Of course, there are many variables that would still make a second-round Bregman valuable, such as where are you drafting in the second round and how many keepers are being removed from the player pool. In all likelihood, Bregman is a first-round pick in keeper drafts, and why his score is still so high at a second-round cost for 2020. I would still feel a little uneasy doing it though.

 

Tier Four

The value is shrinking as we head into the fourth tier. However, I am confidently keeping Eduardo Escobar around the 15th round this season. You don't have to believe in the power outburst, because hitting behind the Marte Partay will assuredly produce 100+ RBI again this season. He scores five points higher among second basemen, so that's obviously where you'd prefer to roster him in 2020, but I'd still be pleased with him at the hot corner.

Yuli Gurriel, Ryan McMahon, and Tommy Edman are repeat appearances from either first base or second base, so let's jump to the more intriguing trio of Matt Chapman, Mike Moustakas, and JD Davis.

Chapman had a great year, hitting over 30 HR and scoring over 100 R, but the BA still leaves much to be desired and the speed is non-existent. The power is much more believable than Escobar, but other than that you are looking at similar production at almost twice the cost.

Moustakas is interesting for 2020 as he moves to GABP. Unfortunately, he's coming from Milwaukee so it's not like he was being suppressed in the slightest. Since 2014 GABP ranks 4th highest for LHB HR, with Miller Park directly behind at 5th. He is currently being drafted in the 10th round on NFBC and RotoBaller ranks him just inside the top 100 overall.

Davis is getting plenty of hype as a sleeper for 2020 in fantasy, after hitting 22 HR with a cool .307 BA in just 453 PA last year. His .355 BABIP from 2019 likely won't be replicated, so you are looking for more of a .275 BA which will still play in the late rounds. The main issue bringing down his keeper score and my general interest is the lack of full-time PA. Yoenis Cespedes looks yoked and possibly healthy, Dominic Smith has to play, Jake Marisnick is chillin' and Jed Lowrie has no physical restrictions for 2020.

 

Tier Five

Just because it's a great player, doesn't mean its a great keeper value. We see some great examples of that in the fifth tier. Let's start with Nolan Arenado. Sure, he's hit at least 37 HR with 97 R and 110 RBI for FOUR straight seasons, but unless you went full win-now mode last year and don't have a plethora of higher-tier keeper options, you don't need to keep him in the first round. There is also this weird rift between him and the GM and trade rumors which could lead to us seeing what Arenado would look like outside of Coors full-time.

Next, you have the Bringer of Rain, Josh Donaldson in his first season with the power-hitting Twins. I absolutely love JD and will probably end up with many redraft shares in 2020, but 34 years young is not a great point to be keeping guys and expecting a full healthy season. Use your keeper selection elsewhere and scoop him up in the draft.

Max Muncy fits right in with Josh Donaldson, whereas the name is fantastic, but the price has to be right in order to merit a keeper selection. According to the Keeper Value Formula, the 10th round ain't exactly it, chief. Two straight seasons of 35 bombs and hitting in a loaded lineup, he is plenty useful in fantasy, but keep searching for better values if you have them.

More Dynasty Baseball Strategy




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