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Early 2019 Fantasy Football Rankings (Top 300): Tiers 1-4


It is the first week of February. Super Bowl LIII has just come to an end, which sadly means the NFL season is over. After eight months of mini-camps, training camps and a season full of big plays and big games, a champion has been crowned and for our purposes here a new fantasy season will start anew.

For those of you like us who feel fantasy football is a year-round activity, we are bringing to you our Never Too Early Player Rankings for 2019 redraft leagues. You may agree or disagree but don’t forget it is still very early and a number of things are going to change based on free agency and, of course, the NFL Draft.

These rankings are a fun way to look ahead to the next season and find out where players are likely to be taken in fantasy drafts with league mates who go worship ADP rather than making their own projections. We are going to take a look at these players broken down by tier (as always) and then discuss a few players in each group. Today, we'll start with the upper tiers. Be sure to also check out my analysis on Tiers 5-14 in part two of these rankings.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Our exclusive In-Season Lineup Tools, Lineup Optimizer and over 150 days of Premium DFS Research. Sign Up Now!

 

Top 300 Redraft Rankings (February 2019)

Tier Rank Player Name Pos Nick Pierre Dom
1 1 Todd Gurley RB 1 1 2
1 2 Ezekiel Elliott RB 2 2 3
1 3 Saquon Barkley RB 3 3 1
1 4 Christian McCaffrey RB 4 4 4
1 5 Alvin Kamara RB 6 5 5
1 6 DeAndre Hopkins WR 5 6 10
1 7 Davante Adams WR 8 8 6
1 8 Melvin Gordon RB 7 10 7
2 9 Julio Jones WR 9 7 11
2 10 Michael Thomas WR 10 15 8
2 11 Odell Beckham Jr. WR 12 9 16
2 12 Le'Veon Bell RB 16 11 19
2 13 Tyreek Hill WR 14 13 20
2 14 David Johnson RB 22 18 9
2 15 James Conner RB 15 20 14
2 16 Nick Chubb RB 11 21 18
2 17 Joe Mixon RB 17 14 21
2 18 Antonio Brown WR 13 12 30
2 19 Dalvin Cook RB 24 16 17
3 20 Travis Kelce TE 25 17 15
3 21 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 27 19 12
3 22 Zach Ertz TE 26 22 13
3 23 Mike Evans WR 18 26 24
3 24 A.J. Green WR 20 23 25
3 25 Amari Cooper WR 19 24 29
3 26 Aaron Jones RB 21 29 23
3 27 George Kittle TE 31 25 22
3 28 T.Y. Hilton WR 23 30 26
3 29 Keenan Allen WR 28 31 32
3 30 Brandin Cooks WR 35 27 34
3 31 Marlon Mack RB 37 28 40
3 32 Damien Williams RB 41 37 27
3 33 Chris Carson RB 33 42 31
4 34 Leonard Fournette RB 32 33 42
4 35 Stefon Diggs WR 39 35 33
4 36 Adam Thielen WR 36 32 39
4 37 Robert Woods WR 40 34 35
4 38 Sony Michel RB 29 41 44
4 39 Kenny Golladay WR 42 36 37
4 40 Patrick Mahomes QB 30 50 45
4 41 Phillip Lindsay RB 34 46 46
4 42 Allen Robinson WR 50 39 38
4 43 Alshon Jeffery WR 52 40 36
4 44 Aaron Rodgers QB 45 57 28
4 45 Devonta Freeman RB 38 45 57
4 46 Derrick Henry RB 43 49 51
4 47 Kerryon Johnson RB 48 44 52
4 48 Corey Davis WR 44 47 55
4 49 Doug Baldwin WR 53 55 41
4 50 Jarvis Landry WR 60 52 43
5 51 Andrew Luck QB 55 56 47
5 52 Tarik Cohen RB 56 43 59
5 53 Calvin Ridley WR 62 48 48
5 54 Cooper Kupp WR 46 53 67
5 55 Julian Edelman WR 57 54 58
5 56 Derrius Guice RB 49 38 83
5 57 Deshaun Watson QB 58 61 54
5 58 Tyler Lockett WR 67 58 50
5 59 Jordan Howard RB 59 60 61
5 60 Lamar Miller RB 54 67 60
5 61 D.J. Moore WR 73 59 49
5 62 Tyler Boyd WR 77 51 64
5 63 Russell Wilson QB 63 62 70
5 64 David Njoku TE 80 65 53
5 65 Marvin Jones WR 70 64 65
5 66 Mark Ingram RB 68 66 66
5 67 Chris Godwin WR 66 63 73
5 68 James White RB 64 75 69
5 69 Sammy Watkins WR 69 79 62
5 70 Drew Brees QB 78 82 56
6 71 Jerick McKinnon RB 47 81 89
6 72 Mike Williams WR 79 78 74
6 73 Robby Anderson WR 85 73 75
6 74 Evan Engram TE 97 74 63
6 75 Matt Ryan QB 83 84 68
6 76 LeSean McCoy RB 72 90 76
6 77 Courtland Sutton WR 87 72 79
6 78 Rob Gronkowski TE 86 77 78
6 79 Hunter Henry TE 76 71 94
6 80 Jameis Winston QB 75 85 87
6 81 Sterling Shepard WR 91 80 82
6 82 Tevin Coleman RB 81 89 85
6 83 Dante Pettis WR 88 86 81
6 84 Golden Tate WR 94 76 86
6 85 Royce Freeman RB 99 87 71
6 86 Cam Newton QB 61 95 103
6 87 Kenyan Drake RB 89 92 80
6 88 O.J. Howard TE 71 70 121
6 89 Eric Ebron TE 65 94 106
6 90 Jared Goff QB 90 91 91
6 91 Kenneth Dixon RB 102 97 84
7 92 Christian Kirk WR 101 83 101
7 93 Will Fuller WR 74 69 146
7 94 Curtis Samuel WR 96 102 96
7 95 Ben Roethlisberger QB 92 101 105
7 96 Rashaad Penny RB 84 99 115
7 97 Jay Ajayi RB 82 116 104
7 98 Anthony Miller WR 106 98 99
7 99 Baker Mayfield QB 98 93 114
7 100 Keke Coutee WR 120 88 97
7 101 Elijah McGuire RB 100 107 100
7 102 Larry Fitzgerald WR 117 68 124
7 103 Matt Breida RB 93 123 93
7 104 Emmanuel Sanders WR 51 110 152
7 105 Robert Foster WR 110 115 88
7 106 Philip Rivers QB 116 104 95
7 107 Carson Wentz QB 121 118 77
7 108 Jared Cook TE 137 108 72
7 109 Michael Gallup WR 112 96 109
7 110 Dede Westbrook WR 105 121 102
7 111 Dak Prescott QB 95 119 116
7 112 Gus Edwards RB 123 103 110
8 113 Jack Doyle TE 104 105 135
8 114 Jamison Crowder WR 113 111 122
8 115 Adam Humphries WR 107 137 107
8 116 Greg Olsen TE 114 100 139
8 117 Mitch Trubisky QB 115 127 117
8 118 Delanie Walker TE 124 130 108
8 119 Trey Burton TE 134 138 92
8 120 Marquise Goodwin WR 103 149 113
8 121 Josh Adams RB 127 122 119
8 122 Dion Lewis RB 129 129 112
8 123 Tom Brady QB 125 114 131
8 124 Geronimo Allison WR 119 126 129
8 125 Kareem Hunt RB 131 147 98
8 126 Lamar Jackson QB 109 148 125
8 127 Rex Burkhead RB 140 124 120
8 128 Kirk Cousins QB 126 117 148
8 129 D'Onta Foreman RB 136 125 130
8 130 John Ross WR 132 133 128
8 131 Doug Martin RB 122 131 142
8 132 Josh Allen QB 144 136 118
9 133 Latavius Murray RB 157 109 134
9 134 Quincy Enunwa WR 149 141 111
9 135 Duke Johnson RB 142 139 123
9 136 James Washington WR 177 143 90
9 137 Austin Hooper TE 165 120 127
9 138 Nyheim Hines RB 146 145 126
9 139 Isaiah Crowell RB 108 170 143
9 140 Chris Herndon IV TE 150 140 133
9 141 John Brown WR 138 153 137
9 142 Jimmy Graham TE 133 146 150
9 143 Zay Jones WR 171 106 155
9 144 Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 135 158 140
9 145 Jordan Reed TE 143 150 141
9 146 Kenny Stills WR 158 134 145
9 147 Ronald Jones II RB 118 175 144
9 148 Spencer Ware RB 172 112 153
9 149 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 141 152 151
9 150 Jamaal Williams RB 161 128 164
9 151 DeSean Jackson WR 168 151 138
9 152 Antonio Callaway WR 155 156 149
10 153 Peyton Barber RB 139 155 167
10 154 Demaryius Thomas WR 179 132 #N/A
10 155 Sam Darnold QB 154 157 159
10 156 Tre'Quan Smith WR 178 113 181
10 157 Tyler Eifert TE 128 171 178
10 158 Taylor Gabriel WR 148 168 161
10 159 Vance McDonald TE 175 144 158
10 160 Andy Dalton QB 145 165 168
10 161 Kyle Rudolph TE 181 142 156
10 162 Chris Thompson RB 183 167 132
10 163 Matthew Stafford QB 166 163 154
10 164 Ito Smith RB 147 178 160
10 165 Mohamed Sanu WR 111 191 189
10 166 Daesean Hamilton WR 174 159 165
10 167 Austin Ekeler RB 160 177 162
10 168 Jaylen Samuels RB 189 135 176
10 169 Albert Wilson WR 167 160 177
10 170 Marcus Mariota QB 170 172 163
10 171 Devante Parker WR 152 193 166
10 172 C.J. Anderson RB 164 176 171
11 173 Adrian Peterson RB 169 181 169
11 174 Derek Carr QB 176 161 184
11 175 Kalen Ballage RB 184 164 174
11 176 Marqise Lee WR 153 190 185
11 177 Bilal Powell RB 151 180 197
11 178 Ted Ginn WR 130 195 203
11 179 David Moore WR 162 189 183
11 180 Equanimeous St. Brown WR 196 154 187
11 181 Alex Collins RB 223 174 147
11 182 Dallas Goedert TE 202 166 180
11 183 Gerald Everett TE 190 224 136
11 184 Devin Funchess WR 192 188 172
11 185 Eli Manning QB 185 184 186
11 186 T.J. Yeldon RB 156 230 170
11 187 Carlos Hyde RB 182 202 173
11 188 Cameron Brate TE 173 205 179
11 189 Mike Gesicki TE 204 162 192
11 190 Donte Moncrief WR 188 185 188
11 191 Jalen Richard RB 180 215 182
11 192 Nelson Agholor WR 207 179 193
11 193 Josh Reynolds WR 191 196 194
11 194 Paul Richardson WR 187 201 196
11 195 Frank Gore RB 159 206 220
11 196 Giovani Bernard RB 205 209 175
11 197 Michael Crabtree WR 201 198 191
11 198 Randall Cobb WR 200 199 198
11 199 Tyrell Williams WR 208 194 195
11 200 Josh Doctson WR 195 204 199
11 201 Taywan Taylor WR 193 217 190
11 202 Chase Edmonds RB 214 183 208
11 203 D.J. Chark WR 203 203 200
11 204 Nick Foles QB 236 218 157
11 205 Mike Davis RB 231 173 209
11 206 Blake Jarwin TE 194 216 #N/A
11 207 Josh Rosen QB 215 187 218
11 208 Hayden Hurst TE 253 169 205
11 209 Jordy Nelson WR 211 214 204
11 210 Justin Jackson RB 227 186 221
12 211 Case Keenum QB 213 211 211
12 212 Rashard Higgins WR 199 212 225
12 213 Chris Hogan WR 212 221 210
12 214 John Kelly RB 197 223 223
12 215 Jeff Wilson RB 242 182 227
12 216 Keelan Cole WR 226 213 213
12 217 Zach Zenner RB 163 #N/A 272
12 218 Ricky Seals-Jones TE 221 226 207
12 219 Willie Snead WR 216 227 214
12 220 Breshad Perriman WR 210 197 250
12 221 Malcolm Brown RB 233 222 202
12 222 Corey Clement RB 220 232 206
12 223 Wendell Smallwood RB 218 208 234
12 224 Chris Conley WR 222 228 212
12 225 Mark Andrews TE 254 192 216
12 226 Jake Butt TE 198 234 235
12 227 Cole Beasley WR 237 200 231
12 228 Jordan Wilkins RB 234 225 215
12 229 Ryan Tannehill QB 186 256 237
12 230 Ian Thomas TE 256 207 219
12 231 Dez Bryant WR 209 274 201
12 232 Rod Smith RB 206 243 238
12 233 Pierre Garcon WR 243 229 217
12 234 Ryan Grant WR 232 238 228
12 235 Kendrick Bourne WR 255 210 233
12 236 Alex Smith QB 229 242 242
12 237 Nick Vannett TE 228 262 224
12 238 Theo Riddick RB 235 244 236
12 239 J'mon Moore WR 224 261 230
12 240 Devontae Booker RB 230 248 239
12 241 Will Dissly TE #N/A 240 #N/A
12 242 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE 245 259 222
12 243 LeGarrette Blount RB 219 250 257
13 244 Kelvin Benjamin WR 244 257 226
13 245 Ty Montgomery RB 270 220 246
13 246 Javorius Allen RB 252 245 244
13 247 Jonnu Smith TE 280 219 #N/A
13 248 Ameer Abdullah RB 238 #N/A 262
13 249 Jakeem Grant WR 250 #N/A #N/A
13 250 Jacquizz Rodgers RB 246 254 #N/A
13 251 Joe Flacco QB #N/A 236 267
13 252 Jeremy Hill RB #N/A 239 265
13 253 Detrez Newsome RB #N/A 252 #N/A
13 254 Luke Willson TE #N/A 265 240
13 255 Cameron Meredith WR #N/A 263 243
13 256 Chris Ivory RB 249 251 259
13 257 Danny Amendola WR 241 267 252
13 258 Charles Clay TE 262 270 229
13 259 Wayne Gallman RB 267 247 256
13 260 Rishard Matthews WR #N/A 266 251
13 261 Deon Cain RB 271 260 249
13 262 Cordarrelle Patterson WR 247 289 245
13 263 Trent Taylor WR 257 275 253
13 264 Mark Walton RB 298 246 241
13 265 Alfred Blue RB 279 241 266
13 266 Blake Bortles QB #N/A 264 261
13 267 Jermaine Kearse WR 274 269 247
13 268 Trenton Cannon RB 289 233 269
13 269 Darren Sproles RB 275 255 263
13 270 Corey Grant RB 265 #N/A 264
13 271 Phillip Dorsett WR 277 271 248
13 272 Allen Hurns WR 278 #N/A 255
14 273 Laquon Treadwell WR 281 #N/A 254
14 274 Marcus Murphy RB 286 249 273
14 275 Jermaine Gresham TE #N/A 272 #N/A
14 276 Isaiah McKenzie WR 272 #N/A #N/A
14 277 Chester Rogers WR 290 268 260
14 278 Luke Stocker TE #N/A 273 #N/A
14 279 Tyrod Taylor QB #N/A 278 270
14 280 Kyle Juszczyk RB 273 279 #N/A
14 281 Tim Patrick WR 276 #N/A #N/A
14 282 Andre Roberts WR #N/A 276 #N/A
14 283 Torrey Smith WR #N/A 277 #N/A
14 284 Keith Kirkwood WR 283 291 258
14 285 Dontrelle Inman WR 259 300 #N/A
14 286 Marshawn Lynch RB #N/A 280 #N/A
14 287 Aldrick Robinson WR #N/A 281 #N/A
14 288 Teddy Bridgewater QB #N/A 282 #N/A
14 289 C.J. Uzomah TE 282 #N/A #N/A
14 290 Jarius Wright WR #N/A 283 #N/A
14 291 Russell Shepard WR #N/A 286 #N/A
14 292 Alfred Morris RB 291 304 268
14 293 Deandre Washington RB 294 285 #N/A
14 294 Travis Benjamin WR 295 284 #N/A
14 295 Brice Butler WR 288 292 #N/A
14 296 Tavon Austin WR #N/A 290 #N/A
14 297 Ryan Griffin TE 287 296 #N/A
14 298 Trent Sherfield WR 284 301 #N/A
14 299 Jaron Brown WR #N/A 293 #N/A
14 300 Jordan Matthews WR 293 294 #N/A

 

Tier One - 2019 Rankings

Of the top three running backs in the rankings, Ezekiel Elliott has the greatest chance for a possible regression in 2019. The talent is not going to diminish, and he will be on the field barring injury, but he will have more surrounding him in Amari Cooper for a full season and the second season of Michael Gallup.

In his rookie season of 2016, Elliott had 32 receptions on 39 targets with a competent receiving group led by Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Last season, with a far lesser group of receiving options, it fell to him to be everything on the Cowboys offense. This led to 77 receptions on 95 targets - a number sure to fall again with Cooper, Gallup and a litany of tight end options including Blake Jarwin, who started coming on at the end of 2018. This means the 95 targets will not be needed and the Cowboys will return to using him as a runner first. He is still going to be a top-tier player and should be drafted as such but after only rushing for six touchdowns in 2018, he will need to be closer to his 2016 number of 15 to stay in the same range after his decrease in receptions and receiving yards is figured in.

What could be with Melvin Gordon... He is a true three-down back with the ability to run the ball or catch the ball. He is loved by Philip Rivers and he is super talented. He is also, at least as compared to the other top running backs, always injured and is good for a few missed games each season. Most frustrating to fantasy owners, these games always seem to come at the most unfortunate time. The Fantasy Playoffs.

885 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns on 175 carries are not super elite numbers for a running back in the NFL. But, combined with his receiving numbers in which he caught 50 passes for 490 yards and four touchdowns, he becomes the elite running we are looking to build a fantasy team around. Again, the issue is he did all of this in only 12 games, which leaves you with a lot to figure out on those weeks where he sits down. If you are going to take Melvin Gordon as your first-round pick you had better load up on running back, as there will be weeks they will need to be used.

You can’t deny Nuk's ability and his connection with Deshaun Watson. What you can worry about is his surrounding cast on offense. Lamar Miller had a solid season in the backfield for the Texans, but he has been an overall disappointment in his time there. Will Fuller is a good downfield threat to counterbalance Hopkins, but he is never healthy and after a torn ACL, is not going to do much in 2019 to draw coverages away from Hopkins. Hopkins has become one of the best receivers in the NFL over the past two seasons, moving ahead of a player like Antonio Brown, who is getting older and crankier which makes him a safer pick when you are drafting your team for next season.

Coming off an incredible season of 115 receptions for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns, it is easy to see why Hopkins is ranked by many as the top wide receiver for next season. Even with the unknown surrounding the other receiver spots on the Texans, he is still going to feast on opposing corner backs as long as Miller and Foreman can provide a solid running threat to go along with the scrambling ability of Watson from the quarterback position.

 

Tier Two - 2019 Rankings

What a great season third-year receiver Michael Thomas had in 2018. I don’t know what the future will hold after the eventual retirement of Brees but for our purposes here, it doesn’t matter as he will be back for 2019 and this is all we care about.

In an All-Pro campaign, Thomas had 125 receptions for 1,402 yards and nine touchdowns, helping the Saints to a number one seed and a place in the Super Bowl. Oh wait, I forgot about that non-call...

In 2019, Thomas should again lead a high-powered offense which will again be near the top of the league. With a running game anchored by one of the best offensive lines in the league and Alvin Kamara and a Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees, all the tools are there for another monster season for Michael Thomas.

Whether you take Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams as the first receiver off the board, you won’t go wrong. But with the offense surrounding Thomas in New Orleans, he may have the highest ceiling in 2019.

Antonio Brown is still listed as a Steeler but in reality, who really knows where he'll be next year? The best receiver in the game for the last few seasons, AB has played himself out of the Pittsburgh locker room. Not with his on-field play, which is as high as ever with 104 reception, 1,297 yards and 15 touchdowns, but instead with his off-field antics and his cancerous presence in the locker room. And this is on a team with Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell.

His talent is undeniable and no matter what team he ends up on he is going to remain an elite asset. What team he goes to matters quite a bit. If he ends up on the Patriots (God I hope not) or the Colts he will feast, maybe even more so than he has been. If he goes to a team like the Jets or the Jaguars though, he will be a border line WR1. Lucky for us, we should not be drafting until August when all of these matters have already been determined and we will have a good handle on things. Otherwise, I would be worried about drafting him at his current spot in drafts.

Le’Veon Bell, ah, the diva himself. Clearly a great running back. Or is he??? This is something we are going to find out this season as he signs a huge contract with a new team and tried to prove it was not just the Pittsburgh offensive line which made him look good. I mean, it is not like James Conner was able to have success in the lead back role with Bell missing this past season...

Much like with Antonio Brown, his value is going to depend on which team he ends up with in free agency. He will still be a low-end RB1 in PPR leagues, but whereas before this was his floor, now this may be his ceiling. Not only is he going to be going to a worse team with a lot of money to throw at him, but at 27, he is not getting any younger.

Bell is no longer a first-round pick but instead is someone you can take in the mid to late second- round at the earliest. If you are able to do it, try grabbing him in the second round after getting Alvin Kamara or Ezekiel Elliott in the first round. But if he is your first running back, I would immediately be concerned with my roster.

 

Tier Three - 2019 Rankings

You seemingly never know what you are going to get out of Evans on a yearly basis. You know he needs a ton of targets to be productive as his hands are not the best. You also know there is not going to be much, if any, running after the catch. Other than this it is a crap shoot. He has had seasons of double-digit touchdowns and he has had seasons with three touchdowns. We are all confused.

This year should be one of the boom seasons as he has a wide receiver-friendly coach in Bruce Arians coming in to take over for the mercifully-dismissed Dirk Koetter. 86 catches, 1,524 yards and eight touchdowns in 2018 with a mixture of Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jameis Winston shows the ability he has when given the targets needed. His 17.4 yards per catch average, which is almost a full two yards more than his career average, shows his ability to get down the field and out body smaller cornerbacks with his 6’5 231-pound frame. These factors will make for another good season in 2019 as the Bucs continue to struggle to find a run game with the likes of Ronald Jones Jr. and whomever they draft in the upcoming draft to compete for time. Arians loves pass-catching backs and this is not the forte of Jones, making the passing game even more likely to run through Evans and to a lesser extent Adam Humphries and Chris Godwin.

Evans is going to be a receiver drafted in the early third round who will have the potential to become a monster for your team as he and Winston grow together in the Arians offense. With more upside then similarly drafted players like A.J. Green or Stefon Diggs and with a higher floor, Evans is a great pick up in drafts this season, especially if you go running back heavy in the first two rounds.

There were flashes this season of what we can expect from Hilton when healthy. He had to deal with a groin injury for much of the season but when he was in the lineup, he showed us he still has a connection with Andrew Luck despite almost two years apart. In 2019, this connection is only going to grow, and Hilton will have a full offseason to recover. Plus, Andrew Luck is a year further removed from the six-week shoulder injury which cost him the entirety of the 2017 season.

When Luck is right, he is one of the top quarterbacks in the game today and with his health goes the performance of T.Y. Hilton who is much better with Luck than with any other quarterback. More so than possibly any other top receiver, Hilton is very quarterback-dependent, but this bodes well for his 2019 season after a 2018 season of 76 receptions for 1,270 yards and six touchdowns in 14 games. Taking him in the third or maybe the fourth round would be a solid pick for those of you who started off with two running backs, or even as a second receiver after going Christian McCaffery and Mike Evans in the first two rounds.

The player who might just be the riskiest player in any of the top tiers, Damien Williams could have a top-five running back season. But he could also fall off a cliff and finish outside the top-50 at the position.

If the Chiefs go into next season with Williams as the full-time starter, he will be a top-10 running back for both draft position and draft rankings by analysts. These are lofty ambitions for sure, but in the Kansas City offense, they should be easily attainable.

If the Chiefs decide to draft a running back to split time with Williams, his value will diminish on an enormous scale making it a wasted draft pick. A pick you will have to make in the fourth round at the latest to get him on your fantasy team.

The good thing for us is that we will know about the draft results before we have to decide when to take him in our drafts. The other good sign for us is Andy Reid. Whether it was in Philadelphia with Duce Staley or LeSean McCoy, or in Kansas City with Jamal Charles or Kareem Hunt, Reid has always employed a one running back backfield, and this is not going to change anytime soon. If he wins the job, Williams will dominate like he did after Hunt's dismissal. If he is not going to be the full-time starter, you simply don’t draft him.

 

Tier Four - 2019 Rankings

Patrick Mahomes- Chiefs- Have we seen the start of the next great quarterback career? Quite possibly. 50 touchdown passes for only the third time in NFL history and what should be his first MVP award highlighted a season in which, although coming up just short of the Super Bowl, he still went toe to toe with the greatest of all time in Tom Brady. Including leading a Brady-like drive in the last 30 seconds of regulation to send the game to overtime giving the Chiefs at least a chance to win a game the defense let slip away in the second half.

Being the highest quarterback in the rankings, Mahomes is going to be taken in the second round in some drafts and maybe even the first round by someone who just has to have him. Not a proponent of drafting a quarterback early, this will not be me, but if he were to somehow drop to the fourth or fifth round, you have to really think about it.

We know quarterbacks score more points as a position than any other on the roster. But this means most quarterbacks will score more not just Mahomes or Aaron Rodgers but if you were to look at Mahomes compared to another player available in the fifth round, does it then make sense? I would wager at that point in time it does. I would rather take a chance on Patrick Mahomes over a receiver or running back at the same draft point and this should be a time to look for him as a value for you rather than a risky play. If you are dead set on taking a quarterback high, Mahomes should be your number one target.

Phillip Lindsay- Broncos- Not only may he not beat out Royce Freeman again next season, but Lindsay also has a wrist injury which could leave him gimpy to start next season in Denver.

Although the same was said before this season, it looks again like the Broncos want to try to use Freeman as the lead back in the coming season. If this happens, Phillip Lindsay will become this season’s version of Alex Collins for fantasy owners.

In a season no one expected in his rookie year. Lindsay rushed the ball a team-high 192 times for 1,037 yards and nine touchdowns while catching 35 passes for an additional 241 yards and one touchdown. At 24 years of age he is still young although old for a rookie and with his now injured wrist a worry he could and should slip a bit in fantasy drafts as his ceiling for 2019 is not a high as other backs and his floor is much lower with his impending time share upcoming and a whole new offense coming in with a new coaching staff.

Taking him in the realm of a Nick Chubb or Joe Mixon might be tempting to some, but it will lead to a lot of heartbreak if he does not return to form. Instead, he should be looked upon at the level of a player with a good ceiling but a high amount of risk in the realm of Marlon Mack or Jerick McKinnon.

Don’t be fooled into over drafting Lindsay based on one season in which all things lined up for him to succeed. These stars are not likely to align the same way again and instead of getting a great view of your competition, you may be stuck in a solar eclipse.

Talk about bolstering stats. Before his incredible last month of the season starting with his 230 yards and four touchdowns against the Jaguars, Derrick Henry used the rest of the season to move up from running back 40 to finish at #16 in what I would consider still a disappointing season for those of you who drafted him early.

If you did hold on to him long enough to have him when these games occurred, he was probably on your bench against the Jaguars and possibly against the Giants the following week figuring it would not happen two weeks in a row especially with the latter game being on the road.

215 rushes for 1,059 yards was a very nice 4.9 yards per carry average and if the Titans were smart, they would use him as the man next season and see if he can replicate these numbers as well as his 12 rushing touchdowns.

With Dion Lewis still under contract though, you need to follow the money, and this means, as much as we want them to release Henry from his team-imposed purgatory, it may not happen. Being a second-round draft pick, Henry is still cheap, and they will be able to control him for three more seasons before letting him test the market meaning this will most likely be a season of committee back work and more disappointments for owners who try to take him to high in drafts. Draft him yes, but draft carefully.

More Fantasy Football Analysis


Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.




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Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

It's crunch time, with precious few games left before the fantasy regular season ends. There aren't many new names emerging on the waiver wire at this juncture but the RB situations in Atlanta and Detroit bear watching, while the Jets passing game has shown signs of life. No, really. Each week, we will advise you... Read More


Deeper League Free Agent Pickups for Week 11

Rotoballers, if you're not active on the waiver wire this time of year, there are only two reasonable explanations: 1) You're sitting at 3-7 (or worse) and don't find it enjoyable to play spoiler to your league mates, or 2) You're 8-2 (or better) and have nothing but matchup-proof studs on your starting lineup and... Read More


Week 11 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 11 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 11 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More


Week 11 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

It's Week 11, and we're getting closer and closer to the fantasy football playoffs. The consistent options are getting more and more clear, especially at the kicking position. We're also going to start dealing with everyone's favorite factor, which is inclement weather, especially up north. The margin for error in these weeks is slim, and... Read More


Week 10 Surprises? We Must Overreact Immediately!

In Week 10, Christian Kirk, Darius Slayton, Tyreek Hill, and Michael Thomas all had beatable cornerback matchups and finished as the top-four wide receivers in PPR scoring. At running back, Derrick Henry exploited a poor Chiefs run defense and rumbled for 188 yards and two touchdowns, finishing as the No. 1 running back on the week. Ronald... Read More


The Cut List - Players on the Chopping Block (Week 11)

This is your weekly list of players to drop. I will do my best to limit this list to injured players and players you might consider holding. If you roster pure handcuffs or backups, obviously you can let them go at any time. The players on this list will, ideally, be guys that aren't clearly... Read More


Running Back Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 11

The regular season continues to advance at a relentless pace as we have now entered the planning process for Week 11. Some of you are in the favorable position of only needing slight modifications to rosters that are destined to enter the fantasy playoffs. But many of you are still searching for the most effective... Read More