RADIO
The Rams made their long-awaited return to Los Angeles last season, and it couldn't have been more disappointing. Their offense was abysmal, their defense didn't play to their potential, their coaches feuded with former players, even their stadium got delayed a year. Head coach Jeff Fisher was fired midseason after going 1-8 in his final nine games with the team, dating back to the previous season.
But hope is on the horizon. New head coach Sean McVay is set to debut as the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. He brings with him his explosive offensive system that propelled Kirk Cousins into a top three passer in 2016. The Rams bolstered their offensive line, drafted offensive weapons, signed legendary defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, and most recently acquired Sammy Watkins from Buffalo.
The pieces are in place for this offense to make a 180 on the field, and that normally translates into fantasy results. The good news for fantasy owners is that the negative stigma about the Rams offense means none of these guys will be overdrafted. You won't have to reach for anyone here, and you might find more value than you'd expect.
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L.A. Rams 2017 Team Outlook
Notable Acquisitions: WR Sammy Watkins, WR Robert Woods, WR Cooper Kupp, TE Gerald Everett, OT Andrew Whitworth, OLB Connor Barwin, CB Krayvon Webster, HC Sean McVay, DC Wade Phillips
Notable Departures: WR Kenny Britt, RB Benny Cunningham, QB Case Keenum, DE William Hayes, S TJ McDonald, HC Jeff Fisher
Quarterback
The biggest factor surrounding the success of the Rams offense is Jared Goff. The Rams traded up to select the Cal product number one overall in the 2016 NFL Draft, but chose to start the season with journeyman Case Keenum at quarterback. Goff ended up starting seven games, but the offense around him was so brutal that it's hard to have any genuine takeaways from his play.
Goff does have serious upside this season. Sean McVay turned Kirk Cousins into a Pro Bowler last season. He's been on the record since he took the job that he loves what he has in Goff. If Goff adapts to the system quickly and begins to live up to his potential, great things will happen in this offense. However, we can't put all our eggs in the Goff basket until we see real production from him on the football field.
Kirk Cousins finished fifth in quarterback scoring last season and nearly threw for 5,000 yards. It's incredibly unlikely that Goff reaches this number, but if everything goes well for the Rams offense this season, I can see Goff finishing around the QB9-12 range. McVay loves to air the ball out and his offense simply produces numbers. For a guy who is going undrafted in most leagues right now, Goff makes for a high upside sleeper late in drafts.
Running Back
The most polarizing fantasy prospect for the 2017 Rams is Todd Gurley. After his Rookie of the Year campaign in 2015, Gurley responded with an incredibly mediocre 2016 season. He only scored in five games, had multiple scores just once, and failed to rush for 100 yards in a single game. In his last 24 games, Gurley has ran for 100 yards just once. There is a lot of reasons to dismiss Gurley altogether this year.
But the positives around Gurley outweigh the negatives for me. He was one of the best running back prospects in recent memory when he entered the draft, and proved his worth when he averaged 6.43 yards per carry over a four game stretch in his rookie season. The amount of times he was hit before even reaching the line of scrimmage in 2016 was astounding. The Rams did Gurley a favor this offseason by signing All-Pro tackle Andrew Whitworth veteran center John Sullivan, and shipping draft bust Greg Robinson off to Detroit. Sean McVay did made guys like Rob Kelley and Matt Jones look like feature backs in Washington. What will he be able to accomplish with a guy as talented as Gurley?
Gurley's current ADP is 21, 11th among running backs. He's going to get RB1 level touches and is in no danger of losing his starting job. He still finished 15th among backs in PPR scoring in 2016 despite his disappointing season. His floor is being a low end RB2 and his ceiling is a top five RB1. He's a good value at his ADP, especially for owners who go receiver in the first round. With Lance Dunbar on the PUP and sidelined indefinitely, Malcolm Brown steps in as the low-upside backup.
Wide Receiver
The mystery surrounding who would lead the Rams in targets in 2017 was answered when the Rams traded for Sammy Watkins the night before their preseason opener. I went in depth on what the Sammy Watkins trade meant for his value here, but the short of it is that his value may have increased from the trade while his ADP is likely to fall. I'd imagine that Watkins will hover around the 130 target mark. The issue with Watkins in his short three-year career has been health, as he was bothered by an injury in 2015 before being derailed by injuries in 2016. Talent and volume give Watkins WR2 value if he's healthy with WR1 upside depending on how Goff plays. If his ADP slips into the fourth round, he'll be a steal at that value.
Three different receivers had at least 99 targets under Sean McVay in 2016, so there is still value to be found in the rest of the receiving core. I expected Tavon Austin to takeover the slot role that Jamison Crowder played in Washington, but rookie Cooper Kupp played that role in impressive fashion in the Rams preseason opener. Kupp was a dark horse to lead the Rams in targets before the Watkins trade. Even with Watkins in town, if Kupp establishes himself as the Rams go to guy in the slot, he'll have value in this offense and is worth a late round flier with WR3 upside. As for Austin, Kupp's emergence may relegate him to more of a gadget specialist role, but I'm not counting him out yet. He's a talented player who's one of the most dangerous open field weapons in the league today. If McVay can turn him into a reliable route runner and pass catcher, he'll have similar upside to what Kupp would have in addition to his big play potential that he's always had. Like Kupp, he's worth a late round flier in deeper leagues.
The guy who takes the biggest hit here is Robert Woods. Woods was flying under the radar as a late round sleeper who seemed in line to be the Rams WR1. With the Watkins addition, Woods value takes a major hit. In Washington last season, both Pierre Garcon (114) and DeSean Jackson (100) saw a lot of targets, but the talent difference between Watkins and Woods is much bigger than it was between Garcon and Jackson. I'd anticipate Woods seeing around 80 targets this year. If Goff comes out of the gates swinging and McVay can really get this passing game rolling, Woods may find value in PPR leagues. But until we see that from Goff, he's simply not worth drafting at this time.
Tight Ends
McVay made tight ends a big part of his Washington offense and helped Jordan Reed become one of the leagues elite at the position. The Rams took his heir apparent Gerald Everett in the second round of this years draft. Everett is an incredible talent with a ton of potential, but he lacks big time college experience and has a lot of work to do to get to Jordan Reed's level. He's likely to split time with second year tight end Tyler Higbee to start the season. Neither is worth drafting at this time in standard leagues, but Everett has dynasty league value and could be a sleeper pick after the big name rookie tight ends go off the board. If Everett does develop quicker than expected and the offense produces, it's easy to imagine him becoming a low end TE1 by the end of the year. Keep an eye on him on the waiver wire this year.
Kicker
Greg Zuerlein may have a leg powerful enough to warrant his nickname Legatron, but a kicker is only as good as his opportunities, and we can't be certain that this offense will be good enough to make him fantasy relevant again. There are better kicker options out there.
Defense
Wade Phillips inherits a talented Rams defense headlined by tackling machine Alec Ogletree, dangerous edge rusher Robert Quinn, and Aaron Donald who is currently in hold out. They open the season against the Colts, Redskins, and 49ers. The Colts may not have Andrew Luck, the Redskins are a mystery, and the 49ers are the 49ers. At worst, this defense is a viable streaming option for the first three weeks on what could turn out to be a trial run for their best case of being a week to week start. Wade Phillips put together an elite fantasy unit in Denver. It's not impossible for him to do the same in Los Angeles.
If for some reason Aaron Donald's holdout is still going in Week 1, avoid this defense like the plague. Donald is that good and that important.
