RADIO
The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, current stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a TRUE Keeper Value for each player.
These players did not make it into my Top Five Second Basemen Keeper Values, but may still generate inquiries from fantasy owners this off season.
2016 Second Basemen Keeper Values: Outside the Top Five
Joe Panik SF, 25 (23rd Round) Keeper Formula Value: 43.17
2015 Stats: 59 R, 8 HR, 37 RBI, 3 SB, .312 BA
Oh, the season that could have been for Joe Panik. He was enjoying a breakout first half of the year in 2015, and was selected to his first all star game. Unfortunately lower back inflammation sent him to the DL August 3rd. He could never fully recover from the injury, as it ultimately led to Panik being shut down for the season in September. With only 432 PA, the counting stats obviously won't jump out at you, but his percentages and ratios were very impressive.
Giants@SFGiants/a/p—A.J.Martelli(@AJM_PoJoSports)ahref=https://twitter.com/AJM_PoJoSports/status/644321975758909440September17,2015/a/blockquotescriptasyncsrc=//platform.twitter.com/widgets.jscharset=utf-8/script">http://
.@JoePanik placed on 60-day DL, season finished http://t.co/I6CZfjnssV @SFGiants
— A.J. Martelli (@AJM_PoJoSports) September 17, 2015
Panik displayed a veteran's patience at the plate in 2015. His 0.90 BB/K ratio was second best among 2B, while his .378 OBP and .363 wOBA ranked first. He hits in the two hole, in front of Hunter Pence and Buster Posey, in a Giants offense that ranked third in BA and fourth in OBP. With his top notch on base abilities, he will be a serious source of R and will provide a great BA in 2016. He barely got beat out by D.J. LeMahieu for the #5 spot in the rankings, but is still a solid keeper at his last round ADP.
Jason Kipnis CLE, 28 (Seventh Round) Value: 16.67
2015 Stats: 86 R, 9 HR, 52 RBI, 12 SB, .303 BA
Will the real Jason Kipnis please stand up? Since 2012, Kipnis has posted HR/SB totals of: 14/31, 17/30, 6/22, and 9/12 respectively. As far as those two stats, your guess is as good as the next guys for his 2016 projections, but it can be safe to assume the double digit HR days are behind him. Look at his ISO per pitch from the past two years compared to 2012 and 2013.
FanGraphs.com
Even though Kipnis isn't a 15/30 threat anymore, 2015 was an excellent season for him at the plate. He set career highs in BA and OBP (.372). The OBP, .355 wOBA, and .823 OPS were highest among qualified 2B (excluding Joe Panik), and his 126 wRC+ tied for first. Don't let the decrease in HR fool you, he can still smash the ball. His 43 doubles tied for third highest in the league, while his 26.8 LD% was fifth highest.
Despite finishing 2015 as the 10th ranked 2B in standard fantasy leagues (excluding Mookie Betts who played zero games at 2B), Kipnis still provided great real life value for the Indians. According to FanGraphs.com, his 5.2 WAR tied Matt Carpenter for the highest at the position, and 18th highest in the league. Hitting leadoff again for Cleveland, the formula suggests his value is a bit better than his seventh round cost. But unless you absolutely don't want to take the chance of losing him, save the keeper selection for a better value and look for him to remain on the board until around the same ADP in 2016.
Brian Dozier MIN, 28 (Sixth Round) Value: 14.51
2015 Stats: 101 R, 28 HR, 77 RBI, 12 SB, .236 BA
The Brian McCann of second basemen powered his way to another top 100 fantasy season in 2015. He led the position in R, HR, and ISO (.209), and set a career high in RBI. But as you can see by the lowest second baseman BA, when he is not hitting the ball over the fence, he is not helping your fantasy team very much. He struck out at a 21.0% rate, and sported a sad 9.0 swstr%. Dozier hit fewer GB and more FB than any previous season, as his 0.76 GB/FB ratio was tied with slugger Jose Bautista. Even when he wasn't whiffing, he just wasn't making good contact. His disgusting 19.7 IFFB% was third highest in the league.
Power is rare at second base. Dozier's power is real, but comes at a hefty price to your teams BA. Among the players ranked in the top 150 last season, he owned the lowest BA. It's not going to change in 2016, especially as defensive shifting continues to increase. He led the league with a ridiculous pull percentage of 60.2 in 2015. Thats four full points higher than the next highest, Chris Davis.
FanGraphs.com
Very similar to Jason Kipnis, Brian Dozier will still provide a smudge of value if kept at his sixth round ADP. But it's not enough to warrant the use of a keeper selection.
Robinson Cano SEA, 33 (Second Round) Value: Negative
2015 Stats: 82 R, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 2 SB, .287 BA
The first fantasy second baseman drafted 2015 had his worst season statistically since 2008. That is saying more to Cano's elite standards than to his performance last year, as he still owned a respectable 2.1 WAR. His 33 year old eyes might be losing their edge though. He posted his highest K% (15.9), highest SwStr% (8.7), and lowest Contact% (82.6) of his fantastic career. He has never been a speedster, but he slowed down even more in 2015. He hit into the second most DP, and his -4 NSB was the lowest in the league.
Even though we are slowing seeing his fantasy value decrease as his age increases, Robinson Cano has been a staple of consistency in the MLB for the better part of the last decade. He has had 630+ PA since 2007, and since then, is tied with Adrian Gonzalez for the most games played. Plus, its not like 2015 was a complete disappointment. In the second half of the season, Cano was the best second baseman offensively. He led the position with most R, HR, RBI, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ after the All Star break.
It is time to curb the expectations for Robinson Cano. He won't be an elite fantasy asset in any one category, but he still has the offensive tools to help your team. See below: he's still got that sexy swing you can look at over and over again.
The second round is just too high for Cano to return value as a keeper. With that being said, don't shy away from him in drafts this season as he carries that smokin' second half momentum into 2016.
Anthony Rendon, 25 (Third Round) Value: Negative
2015 Stats: 43 R, 5 HR, 25 RBI, SB, .264 BA
Ouch. This one hurt many fantasy owners, including myself. After leading the league with 111 R and flirting with a 20/20 season in 2014, Anthony Rendon could not stay on the field in 2015. Between a MCL sprain, oblique injury, and a strained quad, he played just 80 games. Even banged up, he still showed glimpses of his 2014 form with an impressive 10.1 BB% and .344 OBP. Since being called up in 2013 Rendon owns a Hard% of 36.1, which easily tops all second base eligible fantasy players, and sandwiches between Marlon Byrd and Jose Bautista.
We just have not seen enough of Rendon for him to be worth using a third round pick to keep around. He's played roughly two full seasons in the MLB, half being great while the other half just average. He played the majority of his 80 games at second base this season, but will be moving back to his home position at the hot corner. Dual position eligibility is always a plus. He is a great candidate for a bounce back player in 2016, but should be dropping well past his 2015 ADP on draft day. Be the one to take a chance on him on draft day, not during keeper selections.
Keeper Value Rankings:
"The Other Guys" Keeper Value Articles:
MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
