We talked about the top keeper catchers earlier in the week. Now here are some of the most recognizable non-keepers.

To see an explanation for my Keeper Valuation Formula, and the 2016 Top Five Catcher Keeper Values, click HERE!

2016 Catcher Keeper Values and Analysis Outside the Top Five

Buster Posey SF, 28 - (Second Round) Keeper Formula Value: Negative

Make no mistake, Posey is the number one fantasy catcher. He was in 2015, and he will be in 2016. Even with that being said, losing a second round pick on any catcher is hard to justify. The formula did not rank Posey positively, but his score was only barely in the red. He hit 19 HR in 2015, with a 11.0 HR/FB% compared to his 13.2% career average. So the HR total will be back over the 20 mark in 2016. He owned a .379 OBP last season, and an even more ridiculous 52/56 K/BB ratio. He bats cleanup in a good Giants lineup. Expect little change to his 74 R and his position leading 95 RBI from 2015.

The one and only downside to Posey is his early round ADP. How early is too early for a catcher? According to the formula, the second round is too early. However, there is one scenario that keeping Posey in the second round would not be frowned upon. This scenario would need the league to publish the draft order prior to the keeper selection deadline. If you own a very late second round pick, meaning early first round pick in snake drafts, then keeping Posey would not be a terrible decision. But if the order is unknown or an early second round pick is owned, pass on Posey. Free up that early pick and look for a catcher later in the draft.

Salvador Perez KC, 25 - (10th Round) Value: Negative

The reigning World Series MVP had another solid season in 2015. His 21 HR, a career high, ranked third among 2016 position eligible catchers. His 70 RBI ranked fifth. He hits in a fantastic Royals lineup and is still only 25 years old. However, since his best offensive season in 2013, Perez has experienced a steady decline in his BB%, BA, OBP, and wRC+. His HR totals have continued to increase however, but his 21 in 2015 came with a 12.4 HR/FB% that is 2.4 points higher than his career average.

Perez is a fantastic catcher for the best team in the MLB. Still, his offensive output will not benefit fantasy owners value at a 1oth round cost.

Welington Castillo ARI, 28 - Undrafted (Last Round) Value: 3.64

Castillo found himself the odd man out in Chicago in 2015. He was traded to Seattle, and after a brief stint there, landed in Arizona on June 3. Once in a Diamondbacks uniform, Castillo blossomed into a beautiful desert cactus. He finished the season with 42 R, 19 HR, and 57 RBI, all career highs. 17 of his HR came after June 3. His HR total ranked him fifth among 2016 position eligible catchers.

An 18.8 HR/FB% vs a career 12.6% tells us that the power numbers in 2015 were not legit for Castillo. Outside of those HR, his other stats are not exciting enough. He owned a .243 BA and a .296 OBP. So despite being undrafted and his fluky HR in 2015, Castillo is just not trustworthy enough to warrant the use of a keeper selection. There is value gained here, just not enough to be worth the risk.

Devin Mesoraco CIN, 27 - (Seventh Round) Value: Negative

After an All Star breakout season in 2014 where Mesoraco hit 25 HR with a .534 SLG, 2015 was a complete dud. An injured left hip limited his season to 23 games, in which he hit zero HR with a .178 BA. The hip injury was bad enough to prevent Mesoraco from being able to squat down into a catchers stance. The Reds tried everything they could to avoid surgery, including a LF and DH stint. But nothing left Mesoraco pain free, and finally he was shut down and had successful surgery.

Mesoraco was the third ranked fantasy catcher in 2014. There is a chance that with the surgery, he will return to that form. Hips are a pivotal (pun intended) body part for hitters however, and the chances of a full recovery and return to fantasy relevance are not high enough to use a seventh round pick to keep him.

Jonathan Lucroy MIL, 29 - (Sixth Round) Value: Negative

Another fantasy bust in 2015, Lucroy disappointed fantasy owners with 51 R, 7 HR, 43 RBI, and a .264 BA. He did land on the DL with a fractured toe, but still played 103 games. The BA should be closer to his .282 career average in 2016, but the lack of XBH last season was more concerning (see graph below). The drop from 68 in 2014 to 30 in 2015 (50 fewer games) could be explained by the toe injury.

Regardless of his rebound chances, with Milwaukee in rebuild mode there just isn't enough talent around Lucroy. He can still be an asset to fantasy owners at the catcher position, but is definitely not worth the early draft pick.

Yadier Molina STL, 33 - (11th Round) Value: Negative

Age has caught up to Molina. In 2015, he managed a weak 34 R, 4 HR, 61 RBI, and a .270 BA. His power is completely gone, and a career low .080 ISO is proof (see graph below). Usually a 2.9 HR/FB% tells fantasy owners that better luck is ahead, but not in Molina's case. He continually dropped in the batting order for the Cardinals, finishing the season seventh. Even in this good lineup, that won't translate to fantasy numbers. It is an easy decision to ignore Molina in 2016, keeper league or not.

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]