X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2016 Catcher Keeper Values: The Other Guys

We talked about the top keeper catchers earlier in the week. Now here are some of the most recognizable non-keepers.

To see an explanation for my Keeper Valuation Formula, and the 2016 Top Five Catcher Keeper Values, click HERE!

 

2016 Catcher Keeper Values and Analysis Outside the Top Five

Buster Posey SF, 28 - (Second Round) Keeper Formula Value: Negative

Make no mistake, Posey is the number one fantasy catcher. He was in 2015, and he will be in 2016. Even with that being said, losing a second round pick on any catcher is hard to justify. The formula did not rank Posey positively, but his score was only barely in the red. He hit 19 HR in 2015, with a 11.0 HR/FB% compared to his 13.2% career average. So the HR total will be back over the 20 mark in 2016. He owned a .379 OBP last season, and an even more ridiculous 52/56 K/BB ratio. He bats cleanup in a good Giants lineup. Expect little change to his 74 R and his position leading 95 RBI from 2015.

The one and only downside to Posey is his early round ADP. How early is too early for a catcher? According to the formula, the second round is too early. However, there is one scenario that keeping Posey in the second round would not be frowned upon. This scenario would need the league to publish the draft order prior to the keeper selection deadline. If you own a very late second round pick, meaning early first round pick in snake drafts, then keeping Posey would not be a terrible decision. But if the order is unknown or an early second round pick is owned, pass on Posey. Free up that early pick and look for a catcher later in the draft.

 

Salvador Perez KC, 25 - (10th Round) Value: Negative

The reigning World Series MVP had another solid season in 2015. His 21 HR, a career high, ranked third among 2016 position eligible catchers. His 70 RBI ranked fifth. He hits in a fantastic Royals lineup and is still only 25 years old. However, since his best offensive season in 2013, Perez has experienced a steady decline in his BB%, BA, OBP, and wRC+. His HR totals have continued to increase however, but his 21 in 2015 came with a 12.4 HR/FB% that is 2.4 points higher than his career average.

Perez is a fantastic catcher for the best team in the MLB. Still, his offensive output will not benefit fantasy owners value at a 1oth round cost.

 

Welington Castillo ARI, 28 - Undrafted (Last Round) Value: 3.64

Castillo found himself the odd man out in Chicago in 2015. He was traded to Seattle, and after a brief stint there, landed in Arizona on June 3. Once in a Diamondbacks uniform, Castillo blossomed into a beautiful desert cactus. He finished the season with 42 R, 19 HR, and 57 RBI, all career highs. 17 of his HR came after June 3. His HR total ranked him fifth among 2016 position eligible catchers.

An 18.8 HR/FB% vs a career 12.6% tells us that the power numbers in 2015 were not legit for Castillo. Outside of those HR, his other stats are not exciting enough. He owned a .243 BA and a .296 OBP. So despite being undrafted and his fluky HR in 2015, Castillo is just not trustworthy enough to warrant the use of a keeper selection. There is value gained here, just not enough to be worth the risk.

 

Devin Mesoraco CIN, 27 - (Seventh Round) Value: Negative

After an All Star breakout season in 2014 where Mesoraco hit 25 HR with a .534 SLG, 2015 was a complete dud. An injured left hip limited his season to 23 games, in which he hit zero HR with a .178 BA. The hip injury was bad enough to prevent Mesoraco from being able to squat down into a catchers stance. The Reds tried everything they could to avoid surgery, including a LF and DH stint. But nothing left Mesoraco pain free, and finally he was shut down and had successful surgery.

Mesoraco was the third ranked fantasy catcher in 2014. There is a chance that with the surgery, he will return to that form. Hips are a pivotal (pun intended) body part for hitters however, and the chances of a full recovery and return to fantasy relevance are not high enough to use a seventh round pick to keep him.

 

Jonathan Lucroy MIL, 29 - (Sixth Round) Value: Negative

Another fantasy bust in 2015, Lucroy disappointed fantasy owners with 51 R, 7 HR, 43 RBI, and a .264 BA. He did land on the DL with a fractured toe, but still played 103 games. The BA should be closer to his .282 career average in 2016, but the lack of XBH last season was more concerning (see graph below). The drop from 68 in 2014 to 30 in 2015 (50 fewer games) could be explained by the toe injury.

Untitled5

Regardless of his rebound chances, with Milwaukee in rebuild mode there just isn't enough talent around Lucroy. He can still be an asset to fantasy owners at the catcher position, but is definitely not worth the early draft pick.

 

Yadier Molina STL, 33 - (11th Round) Value: Negative

Age has caught up to Molina. In 2015, he managed a weak 34 R, 4 HR, 61 RBI, and a .270 BA. His power is completely gone, and a career low .080 ISO is proof (see graph below). Usually a 2.9 HR/FB% tells fantasy owners that better luck is ahead, but not in Molina's case. He continually dropped in the batting order for the Cardinals, finishing the season seventh. Even in this good lineup, that won't translate to fantasy numbers. It is an easy decision to ignore Molina in 2016, keeper league or not.

Untitled6

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel33 mins ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray37 mins ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele41 mins ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons3 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler3 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson3 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele3 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle3 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans3 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic3 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric3 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney4 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga4 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant4 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith4 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen4 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara4 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele4 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes4 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson4 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic4 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar4 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton4 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert4 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones4 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji5 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey5 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee5 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards5 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani5 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson5 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo5 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley5 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque5 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez6 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler6 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel6 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley6 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal7 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes7 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis7 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer9 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw9 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler9 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager9 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz9 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds11 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano13 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad14 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov14 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto14 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin14 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard14 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins14 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist15 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear15 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers1 day ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers1 day ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark1 day ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers1 day ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels1 day ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby1 day ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds1 day ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift2 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson2 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell2 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans2 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott2 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley2 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs2 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas3 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas3 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan3 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson3 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla3 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo3 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo4 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal4 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott4 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa4 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF