December 30, 2015

JB continues his Keeper Value Formula series. His 2016 second base (2B) fantasy baseball rankings for keeper and dynasty leagues. Target these MLB second basemen.

These rankings are derived from my 15 step formula. The Keeper Valuation Formula uses the players’ age, draft round, number of teams in the league, current stats, projected stats, games played percentage, positional value, and some secret squirrel statistical math. The product is a TRUE Keeper Value for each player.

Consider the derived Values the same as a discount sales sticker at the supermarket. Essentially, my keeper values are the amount of discount a fantasy owner is gaining or NOT gaining by keeping a specific player at a specific draft round. The values range from 0-100. The values can also be negative for players who will not give fantasy owners the same value in 2016 that they paid for in 2015. For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used.

If you play in a custom league with any non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @JBsFantasyHelp or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.

*The following players were not considered in the second baseman rankings due to playing the majority of their 2015 games at other positions: Matt Carpenter (3B), Justin Turner (3B), Marcus Semien (SS), Ketel Marte (SS), Asdrubal Cabrera (SS), Odubel Herrera (OF), and Matt Duffy. Just avoiding potential double taps. 

2016 Top Second Base Keeper Values

1. Dee Gordon MIA, 27 (Sixth Round) Keeper Formula Value: 82.21

2015 Stats: 88 R, 4 HR, 46 RBI, 58 SB, .333 BA

Even after a breakout season in 2014, the change of scenery in 2015 proved beneficial for Gordon. In his first year in Miami he set career highs in HR, RBI, wRC+ (113), and WAR (4.6). The 58 SB ranked first in the MLB. He also led the league in CS (20), but was still extremely effective on the base paths, trailing only A.J. Pollock in wSB (3.4). The jump to the second highest 2015 BA from his .289 in 2014 was largely helped by an insane .383 BABIP. A number that would generally suggest a ton of luck, except when the player can reach first base in 3.45 seconds like Gordon.

Stating the obvious, Dee Gordon has no power. But he also obviously does not need it to be productive. Fellow Marlin Christian Yelich was the only player to hit more ground balls than Gordon, who sported a 3.19 GB/FB ratio. He finds the holes well (38.5 Cent%) and creates alternative ways to get on base, such as his league-leading 16 bunt hits.

The area where Gordon can most afford to improve is his patience at the plate. He swung at pitches outside the strike zone 38.1% of the time, which contributed to the fourth lowest BB% (3.8). The abysmal BB rate led to a .337 wOBA. The four point margin between his wOBA and BA was the smallest in the league among PA qualified hitters. The silver lining here is that Gordon also sported a 88.0 Cont%. With his wheels and high contact rate, why wait for four balls?

Fangraphs.com

2015 made any Dee Gordon doubters into believers. He is a great contact hitter, with unbelievable speed. He has absolutely minimal split differences, and even hits the off speed stuff, leading the league with a 12.8 wCH. 2016 is a lock for another 50+ SB season with the BA hovering around the .300 mark. Keeping 2015's top ranked fantasy second baseman in or around the sixth round is highway robbery, and deservedly earns the top keeper value for the position.

2. Jose Altuve HOU, 25 (Second Round) Value: 73.87

2015 Stats: 86 R, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 38 SB, .313 BA

Wait a minute, does that say 15 HR? Altuve must have spent every day during the 2014 off-season in the weight room. In 2015, he set career highs in HR, ISO (.146), and SLG (.459). He also benefited from the improved Astro offense, setting career highs in R and RBI as well. Maybe the short jokes were getting under his skin, because Altuve was swinging the stick like a big man. He hit fewer GB and more FB than any other season of his career.

He also pulled the ball at a 45.3% rate, and only went to the opposite field 19.1%. This is uncharacteristic for a contact speedster. To put it in perspective, the Oppo% was equivalent to slugger Ryan Howard.

Even though the BA dipped from 2014 with this new approach, Altuve was as good as ever at the plate. His wOBA (.347) was 10 points higher than Dee Gordon's, and he flaunts the fifth best contact rate and K% in the league. Hitting at the top of the 'Stro offense will produce elite R totals, and he can steal bases with the best of them. Altuve is becoming one of the games best all around players, and should be leaving the 2016 draft boards in the first round. The 73.87 keeper value despite the second round ADP proves how special he is. Keep him.

3. Rougned Odor TEX, 21 (21st Round) Value: 66.28

2015 Stats: 54 R, 16 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB, .261 BA

After an awful April, Odor was sent to AAA in May for a little over a month. The demotion proved to be the motivation he needed. From his recall on June 15 to the end of the season, Odor hit 15 HR with a .292 BA. His .204 ISO ranked second among all second basemen, while his .465 SLG ranked first. He also legged out nine 3B in only 470 PA.

Steamer projects Odor with a 70 R, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 12 SB, .273 BA stat line over a full season for 2016. Those numbers would rank him in the Jason Kipnis value range, and inside the top 100 overall in standard leagues.

If Odor can avoid any more trips to the minors, he will be an absolute steal for his owners at a 21st round cost. He hit in seven positions in the batting order in 2015, but produced his best numbers out of the two hole hitting in front of Prince Fielder and Adrian Beltre. If Jeff Banister continues that trend, Odor will build on his impressive second half in a Rangers lineup that ranked third in runs scored.

4. Addison Russell CHC, 21 (Last Round) Value: 58.31

2015 Stats: 60 R, 13 HR, 54 RBI, 4 SB, .242 BA

The highly touted rookie finally arrived to The Show. While he did not blow any minds like his Rookie of the Year teammate, Kris Bryant, he did not disappoint either. Russell had a tough time adjusting to major league pitching, as his 28.5 K% was sixth highest in the league. He has never been a guy to not strike out, but that should drop somewhere closer to his 2014 AA number (17.1%) as he gains experience in 2016. Despite the strikeouts, he still managed a respectable 2.9 WAR, mostly thanks to his stellar defense. His 2.6 dWAR was the sixth highest among rookie MIFs since 1901. Only swiping four bases was a surprise considering Russell's speed, and his 21 SBs in A+ two seasons ago. But being on a team managed by Joe Maddon, do not expect those numbers to stay in the single digits for long.

Offensively, expect a few more growing pains as Russell continues to acclimate himself. For example, he saw the sixth highest percentage of sliders in 2015 (21.2%). That takes some getting used to. But without a doubt, he is extremely talented. Just reference his improvements at the plate as the season progressed. In one fewer game, the delta between his first and second half line was: +8 R, +3 HR, +10 RBI, +33 BA points,  and -17 Ks. He was also more effective on the base path going three for three on SB, compared to one for four in the first half.

With the arrival of Ben Zobrist and departure of Starlin Castro, Addison Russell will be moving back to his home at shortstop in 2016. He played the majority of his 2015 games at second base so the dual position eligibility this year will be nice for his fantasy owners. Going undrafted in 2015 makes it nearly impossible to pass on keeping this wealth of potential. He may be rough around the edges for a limited time, but he will be a star for years to come on a team that is poised to be an absolute monster offensively.

5. D.J. LeMahieu COL, 27 (Last Round) Value: 49.09

2015 Stats: 85 R, 6 HR, 61 RBI, 23 SB, .301 BA

LeMahieu had himself a breakout year in 2015, setting career highs in practically every offensive category and being selected to his first all star game. He does not possess much pop, with a .087 ISO and .388 SLG, but more than made up for it with the other four categories. DJ is a fantastic base runner (3.1 wSB), and was tied for the fewest CS (3) among players with 20+ SB.

Want to know how to hit if you lack power? Watch D.J. LeMahieu. His 2.80 GB/FB ratio was fifth in the league. His 26.0 LD% was ninth in the league. He owned the leagues highest Oppo% AND the league lowest Pull%. For young baseball players out there that may not be built to hit HR, this is how you become an All Star. Red dots>blue dots+purple dots=success.

Fangraphs.com

D.J. LeMahieu is a good value at a late round cost. He will be a solid source of R, SB, and BA again in 2016. Plus he gets the benefit of playing half his games in Coors Field where he scored 56 R, and hit .321 with a .796 OPS.

Previous positional keeper value articles:

Top Five Catchers

Top Five First Basemen

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