To view the top five first baseman keeper values or to read more on the Keeper Valuation Formula, click HERE!

 

2016 First Baseman Keeper Values: Outside the Top Five Rankings

Prince Fielder TEX, 31 (Sixth Round) Keeper Formula Value: 32.10

2015 Stats: 78 R, 23 HR, 98 RBI, .305 BA. 

After a miserable 2014 culminating in a season-ending neck surgery to repair a herniated disc in his neck, saying Prince Fielder came back strong is an under statement. Winning the 2015 Best Bounceback Player and Comeback Player of the Year awards are plenty enough proof. He was fifth in the league with a career high 187 H, as he eclipsed the .300 BA mark for only the second time in his 11 seasons. However, he is not the same type of hitter he once was as a Brewer. Besides the injury shortened 2014, this season saw the lowest ISO of his career (.158).

 

FanGraphs.com

 

After the neck issues that reportedly caused weakness in his left arm, Prince has seemed to change his approach at the plate. He is no longer waiting on pitches to take out of the park. Instead he is just taking whatever is given to him, as soon as he can. 42 H on the first pitch of the at bat in 2015 supports this statement. Comparatively, Dee Gordon had 35. The 9.2 BB% was Fielder's lowest since 2006, while the 34.4 O-Swing% was the highest he's ever had. But, this new look Prince Fielder obviously wasn't all bad news.

In 2015, Prince had a career high 1.30 GB/FB ratio (again excluding 2014), which helped lead to the increase in BA. He became less of a pull hitter, with a career low 32.5 Pull%, and posted a personal best 81.5 Contact% with only 88 K.

Do not expect the power numbers from the old Prince Fielder to return in 2016. Even though a career low 12.2 HR/FB% versus a 18.2% career average should suggest a higher number of HR to come, he just isn't hitting the ball hard enough anymore. But even despite the disappearance of the power, Prince will return modest value to fantasy owners in 2016 with his BA and place in the heart of the Rangers batting order leading to many RBI opportunities yet again.

 

Brandon Belt SF, 27 (16th Round) Value: 29.78

2015 Stats: 73 R, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 9 SB, .280 BA

Brandon Belt is slowly becoming the ball player he has always been expected to be. After a nagging broken thumb injury dampened his 2014 campaign, he set a career high for HR and RBI in 2015.  He showed important improvements swinging the stick, with a league leading 28.7 LD% and an impressive 39.5 Hard%. He also showed improvements by not swinging the stick. The owner of a sad career 0.40 BB/K ratio, Belt laid off pitches outside the strike zone in 2015, dropping his O-Swing% down to a respectable 29.1%.

Like Prince Fielder, you cannot expect typical first baseman HR totals from Belt. His career ISO is .184. However, he does seem to be trending in the right direction as he gains experience. The BA came with a high .363 BABIP, so a .280 repeat is not likely. But with the adjustments he has made at the plate, the inevitable drop will not be significant. Brandon Belt is essentially a poor man's Eric Hosmer (15 Round ADP), and the difference in the Keeper Formula Value reflects that.

 

Mitch Moreland TEX, 30 (Undrafted) Value:  25.80

2015 Stats: 51 R, 23 HR, 85 RBI, SB, .278 BA

A 2015 DFS celebrity, Mitch Moreland had himself a great season. He set career highs in RBI, BA, OBP (.330), SLG (.482), and WAR (2.2). A career platoon hitter, Moreland's game is all about the splits. Against RHP, his OPS was .876 compared to .681 against LHP. Playing at home, his OPS was .898 compared to .733 when playing away.

Moreland's numbers were impressive in what was easily the best season of his career, however, do not expect them to remain there in 2016. His .317 BABIP and 18.3 HR/FB% were both career highs, while his 6.2 BB% was the lowest in his six seasons.

Even though it seems like there was quite a bit of luck involved with his 2015 stat line, Mitch Moreland will give owners modest HR, RBI, and BA while hitting in the middle of the Rangers lineup. Much like his value at the plate, his keeper value is very situational. If the keeper league you play in awards last round pick cost to undrafted keeper selections he will make for a cheap grab for a good CIF/UTIL. If the league gives any cost below 17th round to undrafted keepers, his value plunges into the negatives. Also note that daily roster move leagues make him more attractive than in weekly leagues, allowing the owner to take full advantage of the entertaining splits that define Mitch Moreland.

 

Miguel Cabrera DET, 32 (First Round) Value: Negative

2015 Stats: 64 R, 18 HR, 76 RBI, SB, .338 BA

The best hitter in the game did something in 2015 that he had never done before. Miguel Cabrera went on the 15-Day disabled list. A grade three strain in his calf in July helped lead to his lowest career R, HR, and RBI totals. The 119 games played were the lowest since his rookie season in 2003. But do not let the totals fool you. His BA and .440 OBP both lead the league, and with runners in scoring position his OPS was 1.147. There is no doubt that he can still hit.

After winning American League MVP in both 2012 and 2013, the last two seasons are proving that Cabrera is mortal. No matter the sport, if you are 32 years old and weigh 240 pounds, injuries will be a concern. In 2014 he reportedly played through a stress fracture in his foot and a bone spur in his ankle and finished with a disappointing 25 HR and 109 RBI. Before the calf injury this season, he was headed for similar totals. But in his 42 games after the injury he managed only three HR and a .454 SLG. The leg issues seem to be a legit concern for Cabrera's power. His .196 ISO was a career low while also hitting the lowest FB% in his 13 seasons.

The way we view Miguel Cabrera in fantasy should be changing as his style also changes. While he is hitting fewer flyballs, 2015 saw Cabrera's highest LD%. With the lessened power he is finding new ways to get on base, as evident in his 33.5 Oppo% which ranked fourth highest in the league.

Fangraphs.com

 

So to reiterate, Miguel Cabrera can still hit. But can he still hit at a first round value? The Keeper Valuation Formula depicts that the answer will be no for the third straight season.

 

Jose Abreu CHW, 28 (First Round) Value: Negative

2015 Stats: 88 R, 30 HR, 101 RBI, .290 BA

The slugger out of Cuba has lived up to the hype both of his seasons in the MLB. Abreu has hit 66 combined HR with 209 RBI between 2014 and 2015. However, it seems as the MLB pitchers are slowly learning how to beat him. His BA dropped 27 points from 2014, and he owns an abysmal 0.28 BB/K ratio. He struggles with off speed pitches, posting a negative value against both the curve and change ups. His 36 HR in 2014 came with a league leading 26.9 HR/FB%, but dropped down to a more reasonable 19.7% in 2015. He does have a ton of raw power, but when you are striking out 21% of the time, the HR totals will be capped. Also, check out this gnarly reverse split. Only three HR, .232 BA, and a .658 OPS against southpaws. Not the typical split you see from a power right handed hitter.

 

Fangraphs.com

 

The 2015 stat line for Jose Abreu feels much more accurate to his abilities than his 2014 line. With the most recent stats, he was the 34th ranked player in standard rotisserie leagues last season. Once the excitement and hype revolving around his name settles, Abreu will settle in as more of a second or third round pick. This is why the formula produced a negative value for him at his 2014 first round ADP.

 

Freddie Freeman, 26 (Third Round) Value: Negative

2015 Stats: 62 R, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 3 SB, .276 BA

Bottom line up front: the Braves offense was atrocious in 2015. They ranked dead last in runs scored. With Evan Gattis, Justin Upton, and Jason Heyward all gone, there was zero protection for Freeman in the lineup. To put it in perspective, 38 year old A.J. Pierzynski batted cleanup for 50 games. Coupled with the missed time from an oblique strain and bruised wrist, one can imagine it being tough to provide fantasy value. But even when healthy, Freeman is not hitting like we all hoped he would. His career ISO is only .181 and has never hit more than 23 HR in a season. He also struggles mightily against lefties, with only 1 HR and .219 BA against LHP in 2015.

With the Braves conducting a fire sale prior to moving into their new stadium in 2017, many hoped Freeman too would be on the move to a more potent offense. But Braves GM John Coppolella smashed all hopes and dreams with a ridiculous quote on why the first baseman would not be moved, "..owe it to our fans to have some semblance of offense." So since the Braves want at least some attendance in Turner Fields last season, the fantasy numbers for Freddie Freeman will once again be heavily limited.

Freddie Freeman will be nowhere close to returning third round fantasy value in 2016. Compare his numbers to Brandon Belt's from above. Now consider two things: the difference in ADP, and the offenses they hit in. Stay far, far away.

Previous Keeper Value Columns:

2016 Top Five Catcher Keeper Values

2016 Catcher Keeper Values: The Other Guys

2016 Top Five First Baseman Keeper Values

 

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