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One of the biggest surprises for fantasy owners last season was the seeming emergence of Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo as an elite QB. For years Romo had been a consistently good, occasionally great, gunslinger, but few would have guessed he would have his best fantasy season so late in his career. Yet that is precisely what happened. Romo put together a remarkable season, in which he set career highs in several key categories.
His 34 touchdown passes were his career high, while he tied his career low by throwing only 9 interceptions over the course of the season (not including 2010 season, when he threw 7 interceptions, but only played in 6 games). Romo’s completion percentage was almost 70%, and his QB Rating of 113.2 was the best of any quarterback in the league last season. With all of this in mind, it seems like now would be the perfect time to grab Romo as your starting fantasy quarterback for this season, right? Wrong. I fully expect Romo to experience a statistical regression this season that will leave fantasy owners disappointed. Why? Simple. Fans and analysts are greatly underestimating how much Romo will be affected by the loss of Demarco Murray during this offseason.
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Effect of the Running Game
It is easy to forget just how well Demarco Murray was running the ball for the Cowboys last season, but a quick look as his stats will remind anyone of his utter dominance. Murray ran for an astounding 1,845 yards last year, which was enough to lead the league in rushing by almost 500 yards. He also rushed for 13 touchdowns, which tied him with Marshawn Lynch for the most in the league. Murray was far and away the best running back in football last season, and he was so good that defenses were forced to focus primarily on stopping the run in order to try and slow him down. Now Murray will be running for the Eagles, and I believe this will prove to be much more damaging to Tony Romo than most people estimate.
The biggest reason people are not taking the loss of Murray seriously is that the Cowboys offensive line is widely considered the best in football, especially when it comes to run-blocking. The Cowboys certainly do have an amazing offensive line that did an incredible job blocking all season, but to pretend like Murray was only an elite runner because of his offensive line is absolutely foolish. The Cowboys running game will unquestionably suffer due to not having Murray in the backfield, and his replacements hardly seem equipped to replicate his success last season.
Joseph Randle showed flashes of skill last year as Murray’s backup, but he barely has 100 carries over the course of his career. It seems unrealistic to assume he will magically become the best running back in football merely because of his offensive line. The other running back in competition for the job is former Raider Darren Mcfadden, who is widely known by fantasy owners for his history of inconsistency, injuries, and general disappointment. How can anyone confidently expect either of these two to suddenly provide over 2,000 yards of offense? It simply is not realistic.
With the running game no longer anywhere close to the threat it was last season, opposing defenses will not be forced to game plan around stopping the run. Murray was a massive part of why Romo was able to thrive last season, as defenses consistently put eight men in the box to try and contain Murray as much as possible. That proved to be a huge advantage for Romo, as he was easily able to pick apart depleted secondaries that were given no choice but to single cover Cowboys’ receivers. Yet now the strength of the Cowboys’ offense is unquestionably the passing game, and so defenses will adjust accordingly. Romo will now be forced to face defenses that are looking to stop the pass first.
Romo's 2015 Outlook
Romo is a talented veteran, and it does not seem realistic to think that he will crumble under the pressure, but it does seem likely that he will be much less proficient than he was last season. The Cowboys were one of the best offenses in the league last year, as they were in the top ten for both total yards and points over the course of the season. This will not be the case this year, as the loss of a balanced attack will certainly hurt the team as a whole and cause the offense to suffer as a result.
Another factor in Romo’s decline is the fact that he turned 35 this offseason. Many quarterbacks begin to see their numbers suffer as they venture into their mid-to-late thirties. Perhaps Romo will be able to defy expectations and not allow age to be a factor, but that would seem much more plausible if Romo was not also losing a running back who allowed him to have his best statistical season to date.
With the loss of Demarco Murray, Tony Romo will not be able to continue on his unexpected ascension in the fantasy rankings this upcoming season. His stats will face a clear decline without having a dominant running game as a safety net. Romo may have a slight increase in yards, but this will likely be accompanied by a decrease in touchdown passes and an increase in interceptions.
None of this is to say Romo will be one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks this season, just that you may want to look elsewhere to try and find a solid starting quarterback you can rely on every week. After showing signs of potential greatness last season, Romo should now experience an unfortunate decline that any smart owner will try to avoid on draft day.
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