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Dave analyzes 10 fantasy football top sleepers and bust candidates for the 2025 season. Read about Jordan Love, Travis Kelce, Baker Mayfield, Josh Downs, and more.
The 2025 fantasy football season is fast approaching. Experienced managers know that there is a significant amount of work ahead to adequately prepare their drafts. Whatever your approach is on draft day, it’s always important to remember one thing. You can’t win your league on draft day, but you sure can lose it.
To that end, managers must spend equal time studying whom to draft and whom to avoid. Today, we use average draft position (ADP) data from FFPC (Fantasy Football Players Championship) leagues to examine potential sleepers to target as well as potential busts to fade.
Make sure you’re following RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are 10 sleepers and busts for 2025 fantasy football leagues.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Fantasy Football Sleepers
Jordan Mason - RB, Minnesota Vikings
FFPC ADP: 105.35 Overall
Minnesota acquired Mason this offseason in a trade with the San Francisco 49ers. Mason was highly effective while filling in for an injured Christian McCaffrey in 2024. In 12 games, he ran for 789 yards and scored three touchdowns. His advanced metrics were also strong. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Mason finished sixth in MTF/ATT.
The Jordan Mason touchdown managers were waiting for!
He has 93 yards and a TD so far! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/lhubclHsVx
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) September 10, 2024
The Vikings did re-sign Aaron Jones to a new contract, but have been very vocal about scaling back his workload in 2025. While it’s unlikely Mason completely takes over the starting job, he should receive plenty of touches as part of a committee with Jones. This means Mason will provide standalone value and could be a viable flex play.
Should Jones miss time due to injury, Mason would then be in line for a massive workload. Managers should aggressively target him in the latter half of their fantasy drafts.
Bhayshul Tuten - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
FFPC ADP: 112.95 Overall
Another Jacksonville Jaguar makes our list. Tuten was selected at the top of the fourth round by the Jaguars in the NFL Draft. Normally, Day 3 running backs are not guaranteed much, but Tuten was a high-priority target for new Jaguars general manager James Gladstone.
James Gladstone presented Bhayshul Tuten's name as a priority target on Day 3 during his two interviews with the Jaguars to become their GM pic.twitter.com/08PYmloWYU
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) April 26, 2025
Tuten is a highly athletic and talented rusher. What makes him special is his elite speed. It stands out on film and makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field.
𝐂𝐄𝐑𝐓𝐈𝐅𝐈𝐄𝐃 𝐃𝐀𝐖𝐆.@bhayshul went off for 266 rushing yards - a new @HokiesFB record - and the DUB 😤 pic.twitter.com/Yg2oYFsO9t
— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) October 18, 2024
The fact that Gladstone specifically mentioned Tuten’s name during his interviews for the general manager job should not be overlooked. The team is very bullish on his outlook. The one bugaboo for Tuten in college was his ball security. Unfortunately, that issue reared its ugly head early on in the Jaguars' minicamp.
#Jaguars HC Liam Coen on how Bhayshul Tuten is looking:
“He put the ball on the ground today, that kinda stands out… Good learning experience, first time in a live setting in the National Football League on your first carry — hopefully you learn something from that moment.” pic.twitter.com/6nlwWz1kZo
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 19, 2025
Hopefully, that experience motivates Tuten to improve his ball security. If it does, the sky could be the limit.
Jaguars head coach Liam Coen has recently expressed support for incumbent starter Travis Etienne Jr. He figures to begin the season as the starter. However, it’s worth noting that Etienne has not been an efficient rusher over the last two years. Also, the team was reportedly prepared to draft running backs Ashton Jeanty and RJ Harvey in the NFL Draft, but those plans didn’t materialize.
There was also a recent report suggesting that Jacksonville could experiment with other options if Etienne starts slowly.
Travis Etienne expected to remain Jaguars' top RB, per @Demetrius82.
However, Etienne could take "a bit of a backseat as a rusher as the team's running game and his receiving ability evolve."
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) June 27, 2025
If Etienne struggles to begin the season, the team could give Tuten more touches. If he gets more work, Tuten has the talent needed to become an elite fantasy option. He’s an ideal late-round target in all fantasy drafts.
Josh Downs - WR, Indianapolis Colts
FFPC ADP: 113.24 Overall
Downs' final 2024 numbers may not blow you away, but when we look under the hood, there are some good reasons to be excited about his future. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Downs registered a 30 percent targets per route run (TPRR), a 23.9 percent target share, and a 2.29 yards per route run (YPRR). Strong scores in these metrics highly correlate with success in fantasy football.
The elephant in the room regarding the Colts is their current quarterback situation. Anthony Richardson struggled mightily this past season, and it looks like he could be a bust. However, the team signed Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million contract this offseason.
Jones failed as the New York Giants' starting quarterback, but he consistently targeted Malik Nabers last year. The veteran signal-caller is certainly an upgrade as a passer over what we've seen from Richardson so far.
Jones' arrival could be good news for Downs' fantasy value, as he was most successful last year when Joe Flacco was under center. Downs is a talented receiver and just needs competent quarterback play to thrive.
Touchdown Josh Downs to give Indy a 24-7 lead!
📺: #TENvsIND on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/PAQDLqNOH2— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Indianapolis did select former Penn State tight end Tyler Warren with the 14th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. He certainly adds more target competition to an already crowded receiving corps. However, Warren is not as far along in his development as many believe and could struggle a bit in Year 1.
Downs' situation is far from ideal, but he is a solid separator and can draw targets at a high rate. His underlying data is also super encouraging. Downs is good enough to blow past his current ADP. He's one of the more underrated receivers in the league and could break out in a big way if all goes right.
Jordan Love - QB, Green Bay Packers
FFPC ADP: 135.47 Overall
There’s a narrative going around that Love regressed during his second season as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. While that might be technically true from a fantasy football standpoint (16.3 points per game in 2024 compared to 19.4 points per game in 2023), the data does not support this narrative.
after spending the entire weekend researching & writing about the Packers 2024 season I 100% disagree w this
on early downs among 46 QBs, Love ranked:
#4 in YPA
#5 in EPA/att
#8 in successand that's despite being injured/playing thru injury half the year
then on 3rd down... https://t.co/iATM6chesB
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 2, 2025
Despite dealing with several injuries last year, Love still managed a well above-average touchdown rate of 5.9%. This was better than the 5.2% rate he posted in 2023 when he finished as the overall QB5. The main difference for Love was that Green Bay threw the ball significantly less last year compared to 2023.
Love injured his knee and groin in 2024, and although he missed a few games due to the knee injury, he managed to play through the groin injury. It’s more likely than not that the Packers staff knew Love wasn’t 100% healthy and therefore chose to run the ball more often to help him out.
Love already has a top-5 fantasy finish to his name, and he’s finished with a high touchdown rate in each of his first two seasons. This is a clear trend and a sign that Love is capable of producing a huge outlier touchdown season if Green Bay airs it out more this year.
The selection of receiver Matthew Golden in the 2025 NFL Draft, along with the team's plans to further incorporate tight end Tucker Kraft into the passing game, suggests that Green Bay may throw the ball more in 2025.
There is 40+ touchdown upside to Love's game, but most fantasy managers don’t realize this. Take advantage, and get him on your team.
Kyle Monangai - RB, Chicago Bears
FFPC ADP: 266.59 Overall
We are going with a super-deep sleeper for our final pick. The Bears selected Monangai in the seventh round of the 2025 NFL Draft. He played well during his final two years at Rutgers. The 2024 season was his best as he ran for 1,279 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns.
#Bears 7th round pick Kyle Monangai (Rutgers).
5-foot-8, 211. Low pad level + contact balance. Sudden footwork — with short-area acceleration. Can shake defenders in the open field. Production on underneath throws. pic.twitter.com/U5F5iBjK9n
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) April 29, 2025
Monangai is a powerful rusher and is known for his ability to break tackles. Among 154 collegiate rushers with 100+ carries, Monangai finished 10th in PFF’s missed tackles forced. This is noteworthy because this is a metric that translates very well to the NFL.
The Bears were initially rumored to be in the mix to sign veteran running backs Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins this offseason. However, both players signed elsewhere, and that means there’s an opening for Monangai to function as the team’s power back behind D'Andre Swift.
David Montgomery performed well in this role during head coach Ben Johnson’s days with the Detroit Lions. If Monangai earns the David Montgomery role in Chicago, he would be in line for a bigger workload than some are expecting.
For what it’s worth, Chicago is reportedly quite bullish on Monangai, and that could be why the team opted not to sign Chubb or Dobbins.
While the Chicago Bears discussed adding another RB, after seeing what they have in 7th-round pick Kyle Monangai, that notion has been tabled. There’s a real chance here for Monangai to eventually be the #2 back and see meaningful carries as a rookie. #DaBears
— Ben Devine (@Chicago_NFL) June 16, 2025
Managers should feel comfortable selecting Monangai with one of their final draft picks. He shouldn't be in high demand and has a real chance at getting significant playing time as a rookie. He could be Chicago's RB2 by the time the 2025 season begins.
Fantasy Football Busts
Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles
FFPC ADP: 5th Overall
Barkley is coming off an all-world 2024 season. He ran for a career-high 2,005 rushing yards and became the ninth player in NFL history to eclipse the 2,000-yard mark.
SAQUON BARKLEY IS GONE. 68-YARD TD.
📺: #PHIvsWAS on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/lhBWLZclYZ— NFL (@NFL) December 22, 2024
Barkley has been one of the first players picked in early FFPC drafts. That is certainly understandable, given his performance in the 2024 season. However, it’s worth pointing out that even with Barkley’s incredible 2024, he still didn’t finish as the top back in full-PPR leagues.
He also touched the football 482 times last year (including playoffs). That is an absurd amount of touches for any running back to handle. There’s a long history of running back production declining following a season with this kind of usage. Barkley has also had his fair share of injury issues throughout his career. It's fair to wonder if all that work will catch up to him in 2025.
Even if he remains healthy, it will be very challenging for Barkley to replicate his 2024 production. He is more likely to regress to his career means than put up another 2,000-yard effort.
So, while it’s understandable that gamers are excited to select him after what we saw last year, he may not be as safe a selection as early drafters think.
Alvin Kamara - RB, New Orleans Saints
FFPC ADP: 44.18 Overall
Kamara finished the 2024 season with a career high 950 rushing yards and ended the year as the PPR RB9.
There goes Alvin Kamara for 57 yards!
📺: #NOvsDAL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/F0NOkTSZ7g— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024
Despite the success, he once again did not score well in several key metrics. Among 46 backs with 100+ carries, Kamara finished 32nd in Fantasy Points Data Suite's missed tackles forced per attempt (MTF/ATT) and 37th in Next Gen Stats rush yards over expected (RYOE). Kamara is now another year older, and 2025 will be his age-30 season. This has traditionally been a point at which many running backs experience a decline in their play.
While Klint Kubiak's rush offense was able to get the most out of a declining Kamara last year, it's uncertain if Kellen Moore can do the same. Yes, Moore was the offensive coordinator for Barkley's huge 2024 season, but the Eagles boasted one of the top run-blocking offensive lines in the league, and Barkley was still clearly at the top of his game.
Neither is the case for Kamara in 2025.
Kamara has been a viable fantasy option for the last few years despite declining metrics. However, Father Time always wins. At some point, Kamara's production will plummet. Throw in the Saints' horrendous quarterback situation, and it's hard to see Kamara replicating last year's success.
Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos
FFPC ADP: 59.41 Overall
Sutton proved to be a massive value in drafts for fantasy managers in 2024. He posted an 81-1,081-8 line on 135 targets and finished as the PPR WR15.
Courtland Sutton's concentration on this touchdown is ridiculouspic.twitter.com/WRY6XKcpL5
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) October 13, 2024
The seven-year veteran now faces increased target competition in the form of newly signed tight end Evan Engram. Head coach Sean Payton has previously mentioned he wants to incorporate Marvin Mims Jr. into the offense further this year.
Denver also added Harvey in the NFL Draft and signed Dobbins. Payton had spoken at length this offseason about upgrading the running back room. Given his history of utilizing running backs as receivers, it’s highly likely the incoming rookie will receive plenty of targets.
There seems to be a lot working against Sutton repeating last year's WR15 finish. Historically speaking, it’s generally been a good idea to fade 29-year-old receivers coming off career years. Gamers would be wise to follow that advice, as Sutton is likely to take a step back in 2025.
Travis Kelce - TE, Kansas City Chiefs
FFPC ADP: 64.47 Overall
Kelce is arguably the greatest tight end in the history of the NFL, but he’s on his last legs. While he was still targeted 133 times and caught 97 receptions last year, his efficiency took a significant dip.
Kelce only produced 823 receiving yards on nearly 100 catches and only averaged 8.5 yards per reception, as well as scoring just three touchdowns. It seems he has lost a step and may not offer gamers the same upside he once did.
FOUR TDs for @Tkelce ‼️
📺: #LVvsKC on ESPN
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/qRoro7dq9P pic.twitter.com/2UlpSsq1Lk— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2022
Third-year receiver Rashee Rice is expected back following an LCL tear he suffered in Week 4 of the 2024 season. Rice seemed to emerge as Kansas City’s top receiver in the first three games of the 2024 season.
Before his injury, Rice posted a 24-288-2 line on 29 targets during the first three games of 2024. This is noteworthy because Kelce’s splits with Rice were very troubling last year. In that same three-game sample, Kelce posted an 8-69-0 line on just 12 targets.
It seemed that Kansas City wanted to utilize Rice as its new intermediate/short-yardage threat. This would make sense as he offers much more juice after the catch than Kelce currently does at this stage of his career.
Second-year receiver Xavier Worthy also showed signs of improvement at the end of the season, and the team has stated its desire to further incorporate him into the offense. Marquise Brown also re-signed with Kansas City and is healthy entering the season. His presence adds even more target competition for Kelce.
Kelce is one of the greatest players in NFL history, but his best days are behind him. Combine that with a very crowded, young, and talented receiving room, and it becomes obvious Kelce takes a step back in 2025.
Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FFPC ADP: 70.71 Overall
Mayfield is fresh off a career year in 2024. He set career highs in passing yards and passing touchdowns and finished the year as the overall QB4.
BAKER WENT AIRBORNE FOR THE TD THEN HIT Tommy DeVito'S CELLY 😂🔥
(via @NFL)
pic.twitter.com/0rsUF8XRdK— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 24, 2024
It was a fun ride, and it was good to see Mayfield finally live up to his status as a former No. 1 overall pick. However, his current FFPC price tag is too high, considering he lost the play-caller who helped him reach new heights.
Last year’s offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, is gone after taking the Jacksonville Jaguars' open head-coaching position. It remains to be seen how effective Mayfield will be under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard.
In fairness to Mayfield, many had the same concerns last year when Dave Canales (Tampa Bay’s then-offensive coordinator) left the team to become the Carolina Panthers' next head coach. Mayfield turned out to be just fine without Canales.
We will have to see if Tampa Bay can hit a home run at offensive coordinator for the third straight year. At this point, though, it’s also possible that Mayfield is the one elevating the offense rather than the coordinators elevating Mayfield’s play.
Be that as it may, Mayfield’s 2024 is a clear outlier season for his career and screams regression for 2025. He is a better quarterback than many people gave him credit for, but he’s overpriced at his current ADP. Pass at his current cost on draft day, and take a different signal-caller with the same upside later in the draft.
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