RADIO
Matt's wide receiver (WR) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Wild Card Weekend of 2024. His WR lineups advice for Wild Card Weekend fantasy football start/sit decisions.
The second season starts today. Whether you're into DFS or postseason tournaments, we have you covered. The NFL playoffs can be tricky to predict, as defenses tend to tighten up, leaving fantasy production few and far between.
Heading into Wild Card Weekend, fantasy managers have 12 teams' worth of players to choose from. Depending on the postseason format you are part of, you may either be looking to cash out early or play the long game. Either way, it's my job to help you navigate the wide receivers you can trust this weekend and which ones you should avoid.
Here are your RotoBaller Wild Card Weekend starts and sits at the wide receiver position.
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Wild Card Weekend Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Puka Nacua - WR, Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
Regardless of how little Matthew Stafford has passed in recent weeks, Puka Nacua has been getting his. Despite Stafford throwing for fewer than 200 yards in four of his past five outings, Nacua has averaged 22.7 fantasy points over that same period.
Since Week 13, Nacua has registered 42 receptions for 500 yards and a pair of touchdown grabs. This is over the period in which Stafford and the passing game were obsolete. The Rams offense has run through Kyren Williams and Nacua, whose 31.3% target share has led the NFL since Week 8. In the five games before that, Nacua had 95 or more receiving yards in four of those contests.
Yards vs. First Downs per Route Run over the full fantasy season
- Puka Nacua was Tyreek Hill-esque this year
- Jayden Reed remained the ultimate big-play merchant
- The Buccaneers are arguably the best spot in the league for a free-agent receiver if Godwin leaves pic.twitter.com/yDEx7mS7nR
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) December 31, 2024
Do you remember the last time Nacua was featured in a playoff game? I do. Last year, it was a loss to the Lions in a game in which the then-rookie would average 20.1 yards per reception on his way to 181 yards (most by a rookie in a postseason game), a touchdown, and 35.1 fantasy points.
I'm not saying he duplicates that performance, but the Minnesota Vikings did allow a league-worst 40.17 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers this season, thanks to the 18 touchdown passes and 3,115 (second most) yards yielded.
Courtland Sutton - WR, Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills
I know the Chiefs didn't have their starters in last week, but Courtland Sutton comes into Wild Card Weekend off a seven-catch, 98-yard performance in which he also would haul in another touchdown pass. Since Sutton laid an egg in Week 7, all he's done is produce. Over Sutton's last 11 contests, the Broncos receiver is the WR7 in fantasy, averaging 18 fantasy points per game.
Since Week 8, Sutton's 804 receiving yards is the 11th most in the NFL. With that kind of yardage piling up, you know he's been the apple of Bo Nix's eye. Over that period, Sutton has earned 87 targets, a 25.1% target share, and a first-read target share of 31.6%.
With an average depth of target of 13.5 this season and an air yards share of 49%, all the metrics are once again in place for another successful fantasy outing. This is even more so when you consider that the Bills allowed 703 receiving yards, six touchdown receptions, and 40.23 fantasy points per contest from Weeks 14 through 17.
Bo Nix goes up to Courtland Sutton for the big gain! That puts Sutton over 1000 receiving yards for the season.
📺: #KCvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/8T5JkfQ5sa— NFL (@NFL) January 5, 2025
Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After a disappointing Week 17 performance, Terry McLaurin had himself a "get right" type game against the Dallas Cowboys, where he would end up hauling in eight of his 12 targets for 62 yards, a touchdown, and 20.2 fantasy points.
For many fantasy managers, that game came about one week too late, but it's some nice momentum for those in postseason tournaments as the Commanders head down to Tampa Bay this week.
McLaurin is a much different receiver than he was back in Week 1 when he was held to two receptions and 17 yards against this Buccaneers defense.
The maturation of Jayden Daniels is a big reason why we saw McLaurin score 13 touchdowns this season, a new franchise record. McLaurin is also the only player in franchise history to record 75 receptions, 1,000-plus receiving yards, and 10-plus touchdowns in a single season.
CLUTCHHHHHHH
📺 #WASvsDAL FOX pic.twitter.com/i5W55JC4JJ
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) January 5, 2025
Tampa's struggles against the pass are well-documented this season. Through 17 contests, the Buccaneers secondary has been torched, with 2,659 receiving yards on 231 receptions and 18 touchdown receptions against opposing wide receivers. The 36.10 fantasy points per game allowed to the position are the seventh most in the league.
Wild Card Weekend Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
DeVonta Smith - WR, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
DeVonta Smith's season has been successful, considering the three games in which he had to sit out due to concussion. In 13 contests, Smith would go on to record 833 receiving yards on 68 receptions, eight of which ended up in the end zone. Smith's 15.3 fantasy points per game were the 16th most among receivers who suited up for at least four games.
With these Eagles receivers, predicting which one will eat is challenging. Smith saw a 26.3% target share since Week 8, while A.J. Brown earned himself a 31.1% target share, second only to Nacua.
This season, the Packers have allowed just 2,303 receiving yards to the wide receiver position, the fourth fewest. They have also allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, further complicating matters.
With a tough matchup facing fantasy managers and two options in the Eagles passing game, three if you consider Saquon Barkley, it's too messy to put your faith in Smith. Sure, he could have a 20-point performance, but he could also be held under 10 fantasy points just as easily.
The bottom line is that the Eagles' best matchup is in the run game, much like it was back in Week 1 when these teams last met.
Amari Cooper - WR, Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos
I have no problem admitting that I am petty. If I don't say so myself, it's one of my more charming qualities. Look, it's like a fantasy defense mechanism. It's manifested inside me since I began playing fantasy football; it's more of trust issues coming to life. I'm here to tell you that my spider tingle is telling you to avoid Amari Cooper once again.
The last time fantasy managers put Cooper out there, he produced a solid fantasy performance. Against the New York Jets, Cooper caught three balls for 56 yards and a touchdown, earning 14.6 fantasy points. That was also the second time since Week 8 that Cooper had provided fantasy managers with at least eight fantasy points.
I'm looking at the game logs and the data. Since Week 8, Cooper has seen just 27 targets and a 12.3% target share. His 231 receiving yards account for just 12.8% of the Bills' receiving market share. Let's pretend Josh Allen throws for 500 yards this weekend; 13% is only 65 yards.
That's a world of hypothetical. Let us imagine that the Denver Broncos view Cooper as a legitimate threat. In that case, you have to anticipate that Cooper will likely see plenty of Patrick Surtain II, as Khalil Shakir will likely see most of the snaps from the slot. While the Broncos have allowed 31.52 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, very little of that has been on Surtain's watch.
Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders
I've been in Mike Evans' corner for the last six or seven weeks as his march to 11 successive seasons with 1,000 yards concluded in Week 18 when he would finish that contest against the Saints with 89 receiving yards to keep the streak alive.
Life is often funny, though. As the streak continued against the Saints, one can't help but wonder, "What if?" What if Marshon Lattimore was still with the Saints? Would the streak have survived? Well, guess what? The team that traded for Lattimore happens to be the Buccaneers' opponent this week, so get that popcorn ready.
Historically speaking, Lattimore has gotten the better of Evans, not only on the field but also in the wallet. But we don't talk about another man's money here, so let's ignore the fact that head-to-head, Evans has exceeded 12 fantasy points in half PPR formats against Lattimore once.
It's not just Lattimore that Evans will need to concern himself with. The Commanders have played much better pass defense as the season has gone on. After early season struggles, they have since righted the ship and finished the season allowing just 31.87 fantasy points per game, improving on that over the final four weeks of the fantasy season when they surrendered just 29.49 fantasy points per game, the seventh fewest.
Updated: Mike Evans vs. the Saints since Marshon Lattimore was drafted.
9.2 PPG vs. the Saints
17.1 PPG vs. everyone else pic.twitter.com/DWVZCJt1fD— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 13, 2024
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