Week 9 NFL Matchups Analysis: Start/Sit for Fantasy Football (Part 1)

Welcome to Week 9 of NFL and fantasy football action, RotoBallers.

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down each of the NFL matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well.

Below, you will find our Week 9 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis, which should help you prepare your lineups to win this week. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL matchups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

 

Saints @ Panthers - Thursday 10/30 @ 8:25 EST

Matchups We Love

Mark Ingram, RB, Saints

It's hard to endorse Mark Ingram coming into a short week and ripping off 24 carries on Sunday night. Realistically, he has a great matchup and if he's given the volume he should repeat what he did last week. Even if he doesn't, it's hard to foresee a performance any lower than a low-end RB2. Travaris Cadet will get some catches, but Khiry Robinson will most likely be sitting again, so Ingram should get a heavy dose of touches again this week.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints

The Panthers are really just a great matchup for everyone. This really isn't a defense that can be called decent. Expect Brees to have another QB1 night.

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Panthers

But are the Panthers really going to be the worst defense on the field this Thursday? Alright, so the New Orleans defense showed up on Sunday night-- but that hasn't been the case all season long as they've been getting decimated by every combination of quarterback, running back, and wide receiver.

Cam Newton, QB, Panthers

I really love Newton a lot. I don't care how bad it gets, a dual threat QB is always an easy bet for points. Cam's got a great matchup against a passing defense ranked in the bottom five of every metric.

Matchups We Hate

Saints Defense and Carolina Defense

Almost all of the offensive players on these two teams have a great matchup, and for good reason. There's always the chance of a random Thursday blowout, but no one should be willing to take this kind of risk by starting one of these defenses.

Notable Players

Jimmy Graham, TE, Saints and Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers

Both teams have given up few yards to TEs but they've been completely unchallenged. Between their two schedules only one top 10 tight end has been played, Martellus Bennett. This is a much more challenging feat than either defense has faced so it's a little hard to guess if this is a good or bad matchup for either. It'll be surprising to see either finish outside of the TE1s in Week 9.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers

Great matchup. Can you trust the usage though, especially with DeAngelo Williams expected to return to the lineup? Stewart would be a risky flex with RB2 upside, but it's not the most appealing option imaginable.

Marques Colston and Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints

Like every single other player in this game not playing a defensive role, these two players have a great matchup. The hard part is really figuring out their usage. Both make decent flex plays on paper but it's tough to put your confidence in either.

 

Buccaneers @ Browns - Sunday 11/2 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Browns Defense

This will not be a great fantasy day for many of the players involved this week. Although there are some holes in the Browns defense, especially in pass coverage, there are even more holes and issues with the Buccaneers offense.

Matchups We Hate

Neither team has a great defense, offense, or anything really. Both teams will be playing to manage the clock and all players are realistically in play.

Notable Players

Ben Tate, RB, Browns

The Buccaneers may have re-signed one of the best DTs in the league, but they've still got a lot holes in their front seven. PFF has them ranked as the worst run defense in the league, with a majority of their front 7 negatively graded in the run game. Tate's usage is really hard to buy into, especially with Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West in the mix. And what's worse is the loss of Center Alex Mack for the season, amongst the best in run blocking.

Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, WR, Buccaners

Jackson's high volume of targets have not led to points. I'm all aboard giving up on him, despite this matchup. Evans might have some value, but it's unlikely to really be there week to week no matter what the matchup is. I'm staying away from the Bucs offense. That includes Doug Martin if he plays, Bobby Rainey and trending rookie Charles Sims.

 

Cardinals @ Cowboys - Sunday 11/2 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Another game with no particular advantageous matchup. It's pretty even all around.

Matchups We Hate

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys

I can't say I'd really recommend for anyone to start a QB on a run heavy team, the week after suffering an injury that took him out of a game and is keeping him limited in practice. If Weeden starts, I wouldn't want to trust him either.

Notable Players

DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys

You're obviously not benching Murray no matter what the matchup is, but this is an article about matchups. So simply put, DeMarco isn't in a favorable one. Despite that, expect him to be the highest scoring RB because Murray doesn't care who he's up against.

Andre Ellington, RB, Cardinals

The Dallas Cowboys run defense has gotten better with each week, really coming together last week when they kept Alfred Morris to only 73 yards. Without one 29 yard run, it would have been a 17 carry 44 yard day for him. Ellington is a much different player from Morris, and benefits from also being a dual threat in the passing game. But the Cowboys are only allowing 25 yards a game to running backs through the air, while being a very efficient defense against the run. Like Murray, there is no reason to bench him-- but there's also not a lot of reason to bet on him as the highest scoring RB of the week.

Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams, WR, Cowboys

Bryant once feasted on Cardinals cornerback Antonio Cromartie in game 1 of the 2011 NFL season when he was with the Jets. I remember that well, and that was when Cromartie in his prime. Now, Bryant's in his prime. The Cardinals defense is very good against the pass, and Cromartie has proven in the past he can shadow #1 WRs all game long. This is two freak athletes battling each other. On the other side, Williams is either going to expect coverage from Cromartie (if Peterson plays) or some backup. No matter who it is, it's unlikely the passing game ever goes full throttle with an injured Romo and a great pass defense/pass rush ahead of them. Expect more reliance on Murray than on Bryant.

Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals

I expected Floyd to be a WR1 and he's disappointed me. Regardless, Floyd's become more of a 'target deep a few times a game' guy instead of the all around WR he was expected to be. It might just be Arians scheme more than Floyd's lack of abilities, but for this season, it's going to be hard to trust Floyd every week, especially with rookie John Brown emerging and in the mix for weekly targets. Vintage Fitzgerald came out in form to deliver another crushing game to the Eagles but it's unlikely that's a continuing part of the season. I'd keep him on my bench, unless i'm lacking options.

 

Eagles @ Texans - Sunday 11/2 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Eagles

Jeremy Maclin is an animal. A manimal, even. Maclanimal? He's great. The Texans defense is averaging 83 yards allowed to #1 WRs, and that's with four games against the Redskins, Raiders, Bills, and Titans. I expect another strong WR1 week from Maclin.

LeSean McCoy, RB, Eagles

Center Jason Kelce will return to the lineup this week. The best run blocking center in the league is about to help open up all those lanes that McCoy ran through in 2013. Start him with confidence because other than J.J. Watt, the Texan's run defense has nothing to fear.

Matchups We Hate

Texans Defense

There's a good reason that the #1 WR and RB have a great matchup this week, and it has to do with some of the holes this defense contains.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans

Foster is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, but is also playing against one of the stingiest run defenses in the league. They're ranked 4th on FO in DVOA and have only five players in their entire defense with a negative run grade. Not just the players starting either, the entire defense. Only one player amongst the starting front 7 has a negative grade in run defense. I can't imagine someone benching Arian Foster, but the fact of the matter is that he's not in a good matchup. Regardless, he's still going to find his way into your RB1 heart.

Notable Players

Nick Foles, QB, Eagles

Foles is a likely start in this bye week hell, but the truth of the matter is that his matchup isn't a beneficial one. He'll find himself amongst the lower QB1s this week, against a passing defense ranked 9th in DVOA. Add on the pressure he'll face from Watt, and Foles should have a decently limited ceiling.

Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

The Eagles passing defense is still in the bottom half of the league. It's unlikely to stay there the entire season, but the Texans don't have a passing game ready to take advantage of that. Still, both of these players won't disappoint your FLEX spot, especially in PPR leagues.

 

Jets @ Chiefs - Sunday 11/2 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs

The Jets have one of the worst defenses against tight ends in the league, ranking at 7th worst in DVOA against TEs and with two linebackers amongst the bottom 20 in pass coverage. Kelce should be locked in as a TE1 this week.

Chiefs Defense

With Vick at the helm, it isn't impossible to see the Jets offense put together a two touchdown performance, but it's also very likely that Vick commits at least two turnovers. Expect the Chiefs defense to be one of the best this week.

Chris Ivory, RB, Jets

Despite the Jets suffering offense, Ivory has been a consistently strong play all season long. The Chiefs are not a good run defense outside of Houston and Poe, and Poe is going up against one of the best centers in the game, so neutralization at that point is possible. Ivory should find himself amongst the lower RB1s this week.

Matchups We Hate

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs

The Jets run defense is still really good (1st on PFF/5th on FO) and the Chiefs offensive line is still pretty mediocre (24th on PFF, 15th on FO). However, being that Charles gets fed the ball heavily by Alex Smith in games where the Chiefs are in the lead, Charles will still find his way into RB1 territory. It's still a matchup that carries risk, but as anyone knows I'm way biased towards Charles.

Notable Players

Percy Harvin and Eric Decker, WR, Jets

Vick can sling the ball, and with a full week of practicing with him both Jets wide receivers might actually find themselves more fantasy relevant than ever before. However, Vick's always had the tendency to spend more time aiming at the smaller, dynamic receiver. They're both in a great matchup, but Harvin seems more like the guy to play at FLEX.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs

You know this is a great matchup for Bowe, but that doesn't mean he'll get the ball. Alex Smith doesn't throw to his WRs. That's just a fact of life. The sun goes down, taxes reach your door, and Alex Smith doesn't make wide receivers relevant for fantasy football. I'd forget about Bowe, regardless of the matchup.

 

Jaguars @ Bengals - Sunday 11/2 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

A.J. Green, WR, Bengals and Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals

Let me make this clear, if Green is playing, I don't think Sanu can be started. The Jaguars aren't really known for making games competitive, just being easy to beat on the outside. If Green plays this week, then he's likely to feast on what has to be a Jaguars defense very tired of getting beat. Unfortunately, without the game having a lot of sense of competition and the Bengals offense not being significantly prolific-- both wideouts having top games would be hard to imagine. In fact, the Jaguars are averaging only 33 yards a game to the WR2s they've faced, compared to 83 yards to WR1s. So whichever of the two players ends up in the WR1 spot this sunday, that's the one to play. The other will have to yield to all other WR options on your team to be considered over them.

Matchups We Hate

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars

After weeks in my loveable matchups, Robinson finally runs into one where he's not looking like the hottest option. The Bengals are allowing 57 yards per game to WR1s.

Notable Matchups

Denard Robinson, RB, Jaguars

I remember bringing up Robinson way back in the preseason because he was obviously the best back in the Jaguars backfield, at least under the circumstances they were all under. Robinson is up against one of the league's absolute worst run defenses, (28th on PFF, 32nd on FO) but has one of the league's worst offensive lines (28th on PFF, 24th on FO). So it's a flip of the coin which way this goes. Robinson should find himself amongst at least the mid RB2 territory and is a safe FLEX option, but he's definitely not a player to count on without considering your other options.

Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals

The Jaguars run defense is an underrated unit this year, but it's probably not enough to stop Bernard, especially when they're allowing 45 yards through the air to RBs. That's going to give him a nice floor to add onto what should be at least an 80 yard game. If he doesn't suit up, as he's nursing some injuries, then Jeremy Hill would make for a solid start with RB2 upside.

 

Chargers @ Dolphins - Sunday 11/2 @ 1:00 EST

Matchups We Love

Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers

Let me be the first to say, I am all aboard the Keenan Allen rebirth train. I welcome him with open arms into my FLEX position, and you should too. The Dolphins have allowed less yards than the league average to all but one position, the WR1. On top of that, the Dolphins have one of the league's best pass rushes while the Chargers have one of the league's weakest pass protection lines. The game plan should consist of a lot of short, underneath routes where Keenan can be allowed to do his work. I know I'll be starting him wherever I own him.

Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins

The Chargers struggle against the run, allowing 4.5 yards per carry (9th most in the league). On the opposite side of the battle, Lamar Miller is averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He might not get a workhorse back's workload, but those carries should lead to a very efficient mid RB1 game, especially in one that looks as competitive as this.

Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins

The Chargers will be without starting CB Jason Verett and potentially missing opposite starter Brandon Flowers. If they are again missing both, or even just one of their two starting CBs, Wallace will find the open space to make plays as he has all season long.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins

When a team is missing cornerbacks, and just recently cut one of the two CBs that were replacing those missing CBs, you expect that the QB playing against them is ready to take advantage. Tannehill makes a great stream play as a potential QB1 this week.

Matchups We Hate

Chargers Defense

The Dolphins defense would be here too if I wasn't certain that they will sack Rivers at least three times this game. But the Charger's defense has a lot less to look forward to, especially if they're missing their top two corners again.

Notable Players

Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers

No matter what the situation is, Rivers is unlikely to spend any weeks outside the low QB1 this year.

Branden Oliver, RB, Chargers

Like I mentioned last week, the Chargers don't have good run blocking. In fact, they have terrible run blocking. The Dolphins have a good run defense. Oliver is susceptible to his matchups because of how bad the blocking is, and this is another week where Oliver is looking at the low RB2s and maybe less. Ryan Mathews still isn't back, but Donald Brown may also grab a few touches as he's been practicing in full all week.

Antonio Gates, TE, Chargers

Miami hasn't allowed much yardage per game to TEs (40 per game, 12 under the league average), but they've also been barely challenged-- and those that have challenged them were a hobbled Gronkowski in Week 1 and Martellus Bennett. So simply put, Gates with Rivers playing at ridiculous levels will be a whole new challenge for the players tasked with covering him.