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Dave's Week 9 NFL player props picks and anytime touchdown wagers. Get his best Week 9 NFL player prop bets with odds, expert analysis and predictions. Top weekly NFL prop bets and winning picks.
Week 9 is here, and we have officially reached the halfway mark of the 2025 NFL season. It feels like yesterday when we were scanning the futures market in the offseason, trying to identify potential value plays.
If your prop betting hasn’t gotten off to the start you’d like, don’t worry, there is still time to turn things around. There are another 10 weeks left in the NFL season, and that doesn't even include the playoffs! There will be plenty of opportunities to turn your losses into wins. Just remember to stay true to your process, and avoid making bets solely to “catch up” and recoup your losses.
Make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs. Let’s dive into some of my favorite player props for Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season.
Week 9 Passing Prop Bets
Caleb Williams OVER 234.5 Passing Yards (-117) Caesars Sportsbook
Risk 1.17 Units to Win 1 Unit
Williams hasn’t been great the last two games, but this weekend presents the perfect get-right spot for the sophomore signal-caller. The Bengals' defense remains a far below-average unit and has struggled against opposing quarterbacks.
Cincinnati ranks 25th in PFF’s pass coverage grade and has allowed the third-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks per Fantasy Football Today.
Williams should have zero issues finding open receivers downfield against this defense, and he should easily surpass this total. He might even post his first 300-yard passing game of the season.
Bo Nix UNDER 208.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Nix has really struggled in 2025. Here are some of Nix’s advanced metrics this year (Data courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite). Among 40 quarterbacks with 50+ dropbacks, Nix ranks:
28th in adjusted completion percentage
36th in catchable throw percentage
10th in off-target throw percentage (a lower ranking in this metric is bad)
He will have a hard time this week going against a Texans defense that ranks eighth in PFF pass coverage grade and allows the fourth-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL.
Houston will also likely sell out to stop Denver’s rushing offense and attempt to make Nix beat them through the air. Given the inconsistency we’ve seen from Nix this year, that could be bad news for him and Denver’s offense.
I like Houston’s chances of shutting down Nix and the Broncos' passing game and believe this is a spot where Denver’s QB1 will struggle.
J.J. McCarthy OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-150) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .75 Units to Win .5 Units
McCarthy returns to the Vikings lineup this week after missing the last five games due to a high ankle sprain. This is a tough matchup for the young quarterback as Detroit ranks third in FTN Fantasy's defensive passing DVOA. The Lions are also tied for the seventh-most interceptions in the league.
We still don’t know exactly who McCarthy is as a quarterback, but he had some struggles before injuring his ankle. The Vikings' offensive line has also had some problems. Aidan Hutchinson and the Detroit pass rush could cause havoc in this game and force McCarthy into a few questionable decisions.
I’ll gamble on that being the case and believe McCarthy will make at least one turnover-worthy throw in this contest.
Week 9 Rushing Prop Bets
Christian McCaffrey OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
This might be surprising to hear, but this is a high number for Christian McCaffrey in 2025. He has only surpassed this number two times this season, but he has a great shot to do so again in Week 9.
San Francisco takes on a New York Giants defense that has struggled immensely to contain opposing ground attacks. New York ranks 32nd in defensive rushing DVOA and allows 148.9 rushing yards per game, which is the third most in the NFL.
With Brock Purdy expected to return to the 49ers lineup, we should expect to see Kyle Shanahan dial up a healthy dose of McCaffrey to help ease his franchise signal-caller back into action. This is a great matchup for McCaffrey and is a good buy-low spot on his rushing total. Even if he doesn’t have a super-efficient day, he can easily surpass this total on sheer volume.
Look for McCaffrey to have one of his better performances of the season, and don’t be shocked if he cracks triple digits here.
CMC TOO STRONG. Second TD of the night extends the @49ers lead!
ATLvsSF on NBC
Stream on @NFLPlus + Peacock pic.twitter.com/JH6m2ODLX7— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2025
Kimani Vidal Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-118) BetMGM Sportsbook
Risk 1.18 Units to Win 1 Unit
Vidal has done well filling in for injured RB1 Omarion Hampton. Vidal has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in two of three games since Hampton went down due to injury and is averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
Kimani Vidal over 100 yards rushing 💪
MINvsLAC on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/XkVKWr8CBx— NFL (@NFL) October 24, 2025
Now, Los Angeles gets to face a Titans team that has one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. Tennessee ranks 29th in defensive rushing DVOA and allows the seventh most rushing yards per game in the league.
The Chargers are listed as nine-point favorites in this game, and that means they will likely be playing from ahead for the majority of this contest. That would mean great news for Vidal as he once again should see plenty of volume.
Look for Vidal to post another strong performance on the ground. He has a great chance to break triple digits for the third time this season.
J.K. Dobbins UNDER 14.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit
Dobbins is enjoying a fine season and is averaging a robust 5.3 yards per carry. It’s great to see him fully regain his form following a 2023 Achilles tear.
One-handed catch
Stiff arm
TouchdownJK Dobbins doing it all!
DENvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/dSd93bhN9K
— NFL (@NFL) September 21, 2025
However, this week could be a spot where he struggles. The Broncos' Week 9 opponent, the Houston Texans, have been quite good against opposing running games this year. Houston allows the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game and has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this year, too.
The Texans have also been good at limiting explosive rushing plays. Per Fantasy Points Data Suite, Houston has allowed the seventh-fewest explosive rushing yards in 2025.
I prefer playing Dobbins' longest rush prop as opposed to his yardage total because I can see him eclipsing the total line of 57.5 on sheer volume if this is a competitive game.
Week 9 Receiving Prop Bets
Kyle Pitts Sr. OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Pitts has quietly been putting together a solid season. He has another great opportunity ahead of him this weekend to post another quality performance.
The New England Patriots do rank 10th in DVOA against tight ends, but allow 67.9 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends. The Patriots have also allowed the fifth-most receptions to the position so far this year.
Pitts has seen consistent playing time in the Falcons' offense and has played at least 74% of offensive snaps in every game this season. This is a good matchup for the fifth-year tight end, and I think this number is too low.
Travis Kelce 44.5 UNDER Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
Risk .55 Units to Win .5 Units
Kelce popped for a big game this past Monday night. He caught six receptions for a season-high 99 receiving yards and scored his third touchdown of the year. However, that came against a Washington Commanders defense that’s had trouble guarding opposing tight ends all season.
This week will be a much tougher assignment as Kansas City takes on the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo’s defense has some weaknesses, but it’s been very good at limiting opposing tight ends. The Bills rank 11th in DVOA against tight ends and have allowed just 23 receiving yards per game to the position.
I expect Kansas City to have plenty of success on offense in this game. However, I think they’ll do so primarily by running the football and utilizing wide receivers Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy in the passing game.
Combine that with a tough matchup on paper, and this becomes an ideal spot to fade Kelce.
Week 9 Anytime Touchdown Bets
Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+250) FanDuel Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win 1.25 Units
Watson made his return to the field last weekend after offseason surgery to repair a torn ACL. His return was remarkably quick as he suffered the injury in January of this year. He didn’t appear to have lost a step and had no problem getting behind the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense to catch all four of his targets for 85 receiving yards.
While the Carolina Panthers have been pretty good at limiting wide receiver production this year, Watson’s speed and big-play ability are a different beast. He can pop for a big play at any moment and can score anytime he’s on the field.
Given how good Watson looked last week, I think he is live for at least one big play in this game. Jordan Love showed zero hesitation to target Watson deep downfield last week, and I expect him to do the same this weekend.
I like taking a shot on Watson to find the endzone at these odds.
Terrell Jennings Anytime Touchdown (+350) DraftKings Sportsbook
Risk .5 Units to Win 1.75 Units
With Rhamondre Stevenson set to miss this weekend's game, conventional logic would suggest that rookie TreVeyon Henderson is set to assume RB1 duties. However, New England has been anything but logical in how they've utilized their rookie running back so far this year.
Still, I expect Henderson to lead this running back room in touches on Sunday, but Jennings will have a role. He did out-carry Henderson two weeks ago. That probably won't be the case this week (if that does happen, dynasty football managers everywhere may riot), but Jennings could poach a goal-line touchdown from the rookie.
I think these are good odds to take a stab at Jennings finding the endzone this week.
Long Shot Props & Value Plays
Check back later for several long-shot plays!
Weather & Surface Impact Analysis
Severe weather conditions can have a major impact on NFL games. It can influence play calling and thus influence props totals.
Just make sure you keep an eye on the forecasts as we get closer to game time.
Week 9 Props Summary
Here's a quick, handy recap of all the props I recommended in this article in one place!
- Caleb Williams OVER 234.5 Passing Yards (-117) Caesars Sportsbook
- Bo Nix UNDER 208.5 Passing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- J.J. McCarthy OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-150) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Christian McCaffrey OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Kimani Vidal Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (-118) BetMGM Sportsbook
- J.K. Dobbins UNDER 14.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
- Kyle Pitts Sr. OVER 41.5 Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Travis Kelce 44.5 UNDER Receiving Yards (-110) Bet365 Sportsbook
- Christian Watson Anytime Touchdown (+250) FanDuel Sportsbook
- Terrell Jennings Anytime Touchdown (+350) DraftKings Sportsbook
Thanks for reading, and make sure you check back again before Sunday for updated info and more betting content from RotoBaller!
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