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Week 6 NFL Matchups Analysis (Part 1) - Start/Sit for Fantasy Football

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find part one of our Week 6 NFL matchups & fantasy football start/sit analysis for the 2016 NFL football season. Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) breaks down the first half of the Week 6 matchups to help you prepare your lineups to win this week. Be sure to also check out part two of this week's matchup analysis by Ben Ruppert (@Ben_Ruppert_21).

Each week of the NFL season, we will be breaking down individual matchups and providing you with some fantasy football advice and lineup recommendations based on matchups that we love, matchups that we hate, and some high-risk/high-reward players, as well. It’s essential to analyze the weekly NFL match-ups to find lineup sleepers and gems, while also avoiding those players who may turn out to be busts.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

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Week 5 Recap

Greatest Hits: Sammie Coates (WR, PIT), Delanie Walker (TE, TEN), Jesse James (TE, PIT)

With several top tight ends either injured or facing bye weeks, both Walker and James cashed in touchdowns as predicted. Delanie Walker was one of several Titans to take advantage of an injury-ravaged (and terrible) Dolphins defense. The Steelers offense keeps rolling and now has six players possibly worth starting in fantasy leagues. Sammie Coates is emerging as an every-week WR3 with his big play ability in a top-scoring offense. If you managed to add any of these three players before Week 5, keep them around for the time being.

Greatest Misses: Julio Jones (WR, ATL), Tevin Coleman (RB, ATL), Eli Manning (QB, NYG)

Julio, why hast thou forsaken us? No player has toyed with fantasy players' emotions quite like Julio Jones. For better or worse, he's a must-start WR1 every week, even though he will have huge letdown games like this (two catches, 29 yards) once in a while. Meanwhile, teammate Tevin Coleman turned a bad rushing day into another huge receiving day and showed no ill effects from the Mile High climate. Eli couldn't take advantage of a dinged-up Packers secondary and only managed to salvage OBJ's day with a fourth quarter score.

 

Bengals @ Patriots - Sunday 10/16 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

LeGarrette Blount (RB, NE) - The Bengals have been shredded on the ground by Matt Forte, DeAngelo Williams and Ezekiel Elliott. All of those performances came on the road. Blount may not have the skill set of those other backs, but he is still seventh in the league in rush yards and second in rushing TDs. Sure, his carries won't be the same with Brady back, but he remains the top back in one of the top offenses in the league. Deploy him as usual and don't be surprised if he comes away with 15+ fantasy points.

Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE) - It's safe to say The Gronk is back. A 100-yard game last week went a long way to ease fantasy owners' concerns. Granted, it did come against Cleveland, but as long as he's healthy, he's the top TE in the game. The Bengals have limited TE production fairly well, but they haven't faced any top tier players at the position yet. Regardless, Gronk has proven to be matchup-proof when healthy and could reclaim the red zone role from Martellus Bennett this week.

Brandon LaFell (WR, CIN) - Anyone uttering the words "Brandon LaFell revenge game" this week needs to stop immediately. LaFell is not a player worthy of even having a revenge game, much less against a team he was only with for two years. That said, his targets could increase this week if Green is out or limited. He doesn't project to be anything more than a low-ceiling WR3 in standard leagues, but could be worth streaming in deep leagues and makes an intriguing cheap daily play if Green doesn't suit up.

Matchups We Hate

A.J. Green (WR, CIN) - Green has already toasted AFC East teams in Miami and New York for a combined 22 receptions, 353 yards and two TD in two games. Neither of those teams were the Patriots. Aside from those two huge games, Green also put up two disappointing performances in Weeks 2 and 5. The bigger concern is Green's calf, which held him out of practice Wednesday and has him listed as questionable for Week 6. If he suits up, you can't very well bench your top receiver, but avoiding him in DFS would be wise.

Jeremy Hill (RB, CIN) - The Pats have been excellent at limiting running backs to 3.61 Y/A while giving up two rushing TD over the first five games. Hill should be good to go after exiting early in Dallas with a chest injury, but he will be TD-dependent in Week 6. This makes him a risky play, especially in PPR leagues. He had performed well in Weeks 3-4 and the Bengals have great matchups ahead in Cleveland and Washington the next two weeks, making him an ideal buy-low candidate after this week.

Notable Players

Tom Brady (QB, NE) - Brady won't be finding receivers downfield quite as easily this week, but remains a QB1 in H2H leagues nonetheless. His price tag in DFS won't be low, so you might want to consider other bargain options as he is unlikely to put up 400 yards against a tougher Bengals secondary.

 

Ravens @ Giants - Sunday 10/16 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Breshad Perriman (WR, BAL) - If there's one player that should celebrate the firing of Marc Trestman, it is Perriman. He is a distant fourth in targets on the Ravens, but that could change as the offense looks to expand its downfield playcalling. Plus, Steve Smith is doubtful to play, so Perriman has a prime opportunity to showcase the speed that made him a first-round pick last year.

Mike Wallace (WR, BAL) - If  we love Perriman this week, we should, as @CliffClinton says, love love Wallace. New coordinator Marty Mornhinweg loves the vertical pass. Wallace loves the vertical pass. What's not to love?

Matchups We Hate

Eli Manning (QB, NYG) - Manning couldn't take advantage of the Packers' banged-up secondary and now faces a stingier defense in Baltimore. Odell Beckham hasn't really gotten on track yet, despite a last-minute TD in Sunday night's loss. The run game is still unsettled and as a result, the whole Giants' offense is trending steadily downward. He hasn't thrown more than one TD since Week 1 and his passing yards have declined each of the last three weeks. Given the depth at the QB position, I'll pass on Manning for this one.

Bobby Rainey (RB, NYG) - Sorry to rain on your parade (ahem), but this sneaky waiver wire pickup from last week might not pay dividends in Week 6. The Ravens are the second-toughest run defense in fantasy terms and haven't allowed a receiving TD to a running back. Rainey's upside is limited already, but with the potential return of Rashad Jennings, his time in the sun may have just gone dark.

Notable Players

Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, NYG) - I honestly am still not sure what to make of OBJ at this point. Last week was the perfect chance for him to shine, but he only caught five of his 12 targets. He salvaged his fantasy day with a late TD, but has still been a disappointment to fantasy owners across the board. He will mostly find himself opposite Jimmy Smith on Sunday, which should be a good thing. The Ravens did a fairly good job limiting Washington's passing game last week, however, and a big game is no longer an automatic for Beckham even in choice matchups.

Terrance West (RB, BAL) - West followed up his 113 yard effort in Week 4 with 95 yards on just 11 carries last week. He should be mostly effective against the Giants, but we could see a little more Kenneth Dixon this week as the Ravens look to work him into the mix. In 12+ team leagues, West still has RB2 appeal for the time being.

 

Eagles @ Redskins - Sunday 10/16 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Ryan Mathews (RB, PHI) - Mathews dispelled any myth that the Eagles were moving to a dreaded running back by committee last week. While he only carried the ball 11 times, Wendell Smallwood and Kenjon Barner combined for exactly zero. The Skins have been overly generous to opposing runners this season, placing second-to-last in rushing yards and touchdowns allowed. He remains somewhat undervalued since many refuse to believe he is actually a workhorse back now.

Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS) - In the absence of tight end Jordan Reed, Crowder could see an uptick in targets again. His production seemed to tail off just as Reed found his place in the offense, so the odds may now be stacked in Crowder's favor. He has a plus matchup against the Eagles' nickel backs and could be a good value in PPR formats. He may approach WR3 status this week and beyond if Reed is out for an extended period of time.

Matchups We Hate

Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS) - The Eagles have been tough on QBs this season, allowing just three passing touchdowns in four games. Cousins has been solid, completing 67.2% of his passes, but isn't an automatic start each week. Take away one of his best weapons in Jordan Reed and it could be a good week to keep him on the sidelines.

Matt Jones (RB, WAS) - Philly has been equally tough on RB, allowing fewer rushing yards than any team outside of Green Bay. Honestly, if you take away the Cleveland game, Jones has been massively disappointing thus far. When an undrafted rookie like Rob Kelley is starting to earn more gametime snaps, it's not a good look.

Nelson Agholor (WR, PHI) - He isn't widely owned in most fantasy leagues, but occasionally appears as a sleeper on some popular start/sit lists (not this one) or as a bargain DFS play. He is clearly none of these, as he is catching just 59.1% of his targets and has a season high of four catches and 57 yards, both against Cleveland. Don't get cute this week and take a chance, especially when he is going to draw at least some attention from Josh Norman. The same goes for DGB, but you weren't considering playing him anyway. Were you?

Notable Players

Carson Wentz (QB, PHI) - Despite throwing his first pick and experiencing his first loss as a pro, Wentz increased his completion percentage for the fourth straight game and finished with a QBR of 102.8. This week isn't an ideal matchup for the rookie phenom and next week he gets the Vikings. Hold tight and keep him stashed as the schedule softens later in the season.

 

Jaguars @ Bears - Sunday 10/16 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Allen Robinson (WR, JAX) - The Jags and their head coach survived London and may be on the road to recovery. Robinson has seen double digit targets in three of their four games this year. He will square off this week against Tracy Porter, making it likely that he converts some of those into big gains. Robinson is still a quality buy-low candidate, but that window could close soon if he goes off against the Bears on Sunday.

Jordan Howard (RB, CHI) - The way he's been running since becoming the starter, the matchup may not even matter. Da rook has put up consecutive 100-yard games and a league-best 5.8 Y/A in his first 51 rushing attempts. Jacksonville actually ranks in the lower half for fantasy points allowed by RB, but they haven't faced a runner with the same burst as Howard. A solid game this week could elevate him to a legit RB1.

Brian Hoyer (QB, CHI) - 300+ passing yards and a 2/0 TD/INT ratio. That's what Hoyer has brought to the table each of the past three weeks as the starting QB. Aside from possibly ending the Jay Cutler era in Chicago, Hoyer has been a waiver wire revelation for those who stream quarterbacks. The Jags allow 19.2 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs, which should keep Hoyer in the conversation as a fantasy starter.

Matchups We Hate

Cameron Meredith (WR, CHI) - Not to be a buzzkill, but his spectacular starting debut might not be so easily repeatable. Now that defenses are aware he exists, he will face a stiffer test. With Jalen Ramsey expected to shadow Alshon Jeffery, Meredith should draw coverage from Prince Amukamara, who has graded out well this year. Meredith displayed an excellent catch radius in the combine and has shown his big play potential. but this matchup isn't an enticing as it may look at first glance.

Notable Players

Chris Ivory (RB, JAX) - In two games back from his undisclosed medical illness, Ivory has done next to nothing. 43 yards on 20 carries are all Ivory has to show for the fat contract he signed in the offseason. With a bye week to recover, Ivory is an interesting bounceback candidate. I'm picking him up in every league I can where a disgruntled owner has cut bait during the Bye Week. He is far too risky to start this week, but his progress is worth monitoring.

 

Steelers @ Dolphins - Sunday 10/16 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Le'veon Bell (RB, PIT) - The top running back in the game against one of the most disappointing defenses sounds like an automatic win. The Fins have actually been better against runners than receivers, but considering Bell does both equally well, he's still due for a big game. If you're picking between Bell or Brown as a safety pick for DFS, stick with Bell.

Antonio Brown (WR, PIT) - The biggest problem with Brown this week is that the Steelers might not even need to pass in the second half, limiting his reception total. As @Roto_Dubs pointed out, Brown disappeared after catching two early TDs against Kansas City in what could be a similar situation. Of course, fantasy owners will gladly take two early touchdowns, but don't necessarily expect a 300-yard game based on the matchup alone. He'll be among the top WR this week, but you may want to shift your budget elsewhere for a top-dollar WR in PPR formats.

Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA) - On paper, Landry has one of the best WR/CB matchups of the week. Slot corner Sean Davis gets the task of chasing Landry around on a day that the Dolphins are sure to be playing catch up. Landry continues to be hamstrung by the play of his quarterback and offensive line, but he is too valuable in PPR to even consider benching. Consider last week an aberration, as he had registered seven catches in each of the first four games until then.

Matchups We Hate

Arian Foster (RB, MIA) - Maybe he'll play. Maybe he won't. Such is the life of Arian Foster these days. He is expected to suit up, but Foster himself put a damper on that by saying he wouldn't go until he is 100% pain-free and can explode the way he wants. We all know he isn't pushing himself harder than he has to if his body is at risk. As tantalizing as his potential is for fantasy owners, he is simply too risky to plug in for Week 6.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, MIA) - Apparently, Tannehill's three-step plan for improving the horrible offensive output over three of the last five games involves the following: 1) Blame the offensive line. 2) Blame the receivers. 3) Admit that you maybe could do a better job once in a while if only you had better blocking and receivers would get open more. Even the garbage time production from Weeks 2-3 has been absent lately. Tannehill is becoming more drop-worthy with each week that passes.

Notable Players

Eli Rogers (WR, PIT) - He's back as the primary slot receiver for Pittsburgh, which pushes Markus Wheaton to the outside or off the field completely if Coates is a full go. Rogers has PPR value in a choice matchup this week and might be a nice bargain in DFS leagues as a differentiation play.

 

Browns @ Titans - Sunday 10/16 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Terrelle Pryor (WR, CLE) - Pryor, a.k.a. the Human Swiss Army Knife, hasn't brought the same type of value owners were expecting after his Week 3 breakout. This week he gets to square off against Perrish Cox, who is apt to giving up big plays. The athletic Pryor should have more chances in this game to make a difference, as it should be a closer contest.

Delanie Walker (TE, TEN) - Walker came back strong with 66 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. He could easily improve on that in Week 6. We've already established that the Dolphins defense is terrible, but now we're talking about the Browns, who love giving up big plays to tight ends. They are by far the worst in the league with 510 yards and five TDs allowed to TE.

DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN) - Fun fact: the Titans' current leader in receptions is also their leading rusher. That would be DeMarco Murray, who is playing like the fantasy MVP so far. Not surprisingly, Cleveland also ranks near the bottom in run defense. Start Murray and treat him like the RB1 he is.

Matchups We Hate

Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN) - He needed a performance like last week. After the first four games, Mariota was completing less than 60% of his passes and had a negative TD/INT ratio. This might seem like a great chance to build on last week's success, but at this point the Browns secondary seems far superior to the Dolphins. Cleveland has a healthy Joe Haden and is going to see a big dose of the exotic smashmouth running game. Fade Mariota this week unless you are in two-QB leagues.

Notable Players

Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE) - Crowell predictably flopped last week as the Browns were completely overmatched by the Patriots. To be fair, that was his first lackluster fantasy game of the year. He should definitely see more than 13 carries, but does he return to RB1 production against a Titans team that has been fairly stout against the run? This week he appears more like a borderline RB2.

 

Panthers @ Saints - Sunday 10/16 @ 1:00 PM EST

Matchups We Love

Drew Brees (QB, NO) - Brees has alternated huge games with mediocre ones, even against weak opponents. The difference has been the home/road split.  In two home games, Brees has gone for 799 yards and a 7/1 TD/INT while throwing for 469 yards and a 3/2 TD/INT in two road starts. This week, Brees will be back in the comfort of the Superdome against a reeling Panthers team. Count on a big performance from this perennial Pro Bowler.

Brandin Cooks (WR, NO) - Brandin Cooks hasn't scored a touchdown or collected more than 70 yards in a game since Week 1. Even in high-scoring games against Atlanta and San Diego in Weeks 3-4, despite being targeted a combined 14 times, Cooks laid an egg each time. This Sunday, Cooks will face off against rookie James Bradberry and has little excuse not to perform. He got off to a slow start last year before going on a tear in the second half, so keep the faith in him and bank on the winnable matchup.

Cam Newton (QB, CAR) - It would seem that Cam has gone through all the stages of the concussion protocol and is ready to light up the Saints. Simply put, if he plays, he is a top five option at the quarterback position. He is only completing 57.9% of his passes this season with a 6/5 TD/INT ratio, but 147 rushing yards and two TDs on the ground offset that.

Matchups We Hate

Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - Carolina is a middle-of-the-pack run defense over the first quarter of the season, but New Orleans is near the bottom in rushing offense. Through no fault of his own, Ingram has been underused and hasn't delivered enough return on value. My Spidey Sense tells me that Sean Payton will break his weekly promise to run the ball in a game that could turn into a shootout if Carolina has all of its key players back healthy. He always has a chance to reach the end zone in the Saints' potent offense, making him a must-start in standard leagues.

Notable Players

Kelvin Benjamin (WR, CAR) - Facing the Saints defense should be a no-brain start for any opposing receiver. New Orleans has given up its share of yardage to receivers, but Benjamin's situation is clouded by health issues. He was limited in practice Thursday with knee discomfort, making him questionable for Sunday. This is also partially dependent on the QB situation. If Cam Newton and Kelvin Benjamin are both ready to go, he could be a top 10 play this week. Monitor this situation closely leading up to kickoff.

Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR) - He is set to return for Week 6, but may not get a full workload. Stewart is playable in deep leagues if you are unsure about your RB2/flex situation, but expectations should be limited.




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