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Week 3 Buy and Sell for Fantasy Baseball

Kyle Bishop takes a look at which MLB hitters and pitchers you should keep, drop, or trade for during week 3 of the 2016 MLB fantasy baseball season.

This early in the season, most of my advice boils down to, “Be patient.” The fantasy baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. Nobody wants to fall behind early, but overreacting to small samples is a good way to make sure you stay behind.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t moves to be made. Savvy owners know to look for any opportunity to turn the chaos of April to their advantage. Whether it’s selling high on an overperforming asset or targeting a player who’s off to a slow start, the right decisions in the opening month can pay dividends all year long. Each week in this space, we’ll identify one hitter and one pitcher on each side of the buy/sell equation.

 

Week 3 Buys

Zack Greinke, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Greinke’s tenure in Arizona hasn’t gotten off to the best start – through three turns, he’s 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. His HR/9 is also 1.56, nearly triple what it was a year ago. Anyone who drafted Greinke expecting anything close to a repeat of last season’s 1.66 ERA is going to be disappointed. That mark was supported by both an unsustainable BABIP (his .229 mark was the fifth-lowest in the last quarter century) and strand rate (second-highest in the same time frame).

The good news is that Greinke doesn’t have to come anywhere close to last year’s success to be a fantasy stud. Over the prior four seasons, he averaged 16 wins and a 3.16 ERA while striking out nearly a batter per inning and four batters for every walk issued. Most owners probably will give him the benefit of the doubt, as they should. But it’s worth checking in to see if your rival’s a little spooked by the early scuffles.

 

Domingo Santana, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

After being traded to Milwaukee at the deadline last season as part of the package for Carlos Gomez, Santana hit eight homers and stole four bases in just 187 plate appearances. That performance garnered him some buzz as a potential sleeper, particularly after news broke that he would tapped to lead off for the Brew Crew. While he hasn’t offered the same category juice in 2016, there’s a lot to like about his early performance. Santana has improved his already excellent walk rate and drastically cut down on strikeouts so far.

His batted ball data also portends good things – lots of line drives and other hard contact. Per StatCast, his average exit velocity is fifth-best in the majors, and he has more 100+ MPH batted balls than anyone in the game. Santana’s floating around on the wire in the majority of leagues, and represents a fantastic potential buy-low opportunity if he’s owned in your league. The power will come. Grab him before it does and reap the rewards.

 

Week 3 Sells

Carlos Gomez, OF, Houston Astros

Lots of owners looked at Gomez before the season and saw a prime bounceback candidate. It was certainly an understandable perspective. After all, before last year’s injury-marred campaign, Gomez had averaged 22 homers and 37 steals in the three seasons prior. He also only turned 30 in December. But through the season’s first two weeks, Gomez has looked awful. He’s striking out more often, and when he has made contact, it’s been much weaker.

There’s a lot of season left, but these early returns are troubling. When you consider that some of his peripherals had already been trending in the wrong direction, it’s little wonder that the projection systems are pessimistic. They’ve all got Gomez pegged for a 15/20 season with a batting average hovering below .260. That’s Brett Gardner territory. Useful, sure, but nowhere near the elite production Gomez used to boast. There’s bound to be at least one believer in your league. It might be time to talk deal.

 

Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

Command has always been Sanchez’s big question mark, and it showed last season. He spent most of the year in the bullpen, but did make 11 starts. In those starts, he posted a 1.8 K/BB%. Only three starters (minimum 50 innings) were worse. He’s been much better in the early going of 2016, nearly doubling his K% and keeping the walks to a manageable level. But that 1.35 ERA has nowhere to go but up, because – and this may shock you – it’s built on an unsustainable foundation.

Maybe Sanchez has made some legitimate improvements. That’s not unreasonable to believe. He was well-regarded as a prospect, he’s just 23, and he was aggressively promoted through the minors. It’s too early to say for sure. What we do know is that he’s not going to maintain a .170 BABIP or 91.6% strand rate, and that he struggled with free passes at every stop in his minor league career. The potential reward is high if he’s finally put it together, but so is the risk that he hasn’t. Sanchez could be more valuable to you as a trade chip than as a presence on your roster.

 

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Amon-Ra St. Brown

to Suit Up on Christmas Day
Rome Odunze

"Increasing Unlikely to Play" in Week 17
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Carries Questionable Tag on Thursday
David Montgomery

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
Seth Curry

to Remain Sidelined on Christmas Day
Jae'Sean Tate

Questionable Thursday
Dwight Powell

Likely to Return on Christmas
Jaylin Williams

Misses Fifth Straight Game
Ousmane Dieng

Unavailable on Christmas Day
Guerschon Yabusele

Questionable for Christmas Action
Miles McBride

Remains Out on Christmas
Cameron Johnson

to Miss Time With Bone Bruise in Right Knee
Jaxson Hayes

Considered Questionable for Christmas Matchup
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Return Thursday
Dorian Finney-Smith

Could Make Season Debut on Christmas Day
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Uncertain for Christmas Day
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Listed as Questionable for Christmas Game
Al Horford

on Track to Return Thursday
Jaden McDaniels

Iffy for Christmas Day
Brandon Williams

Expected to Play on Christmas Day
P.J. Washington

at Risk of Missing Second Straight Game
Klay Thompson

Likely to Play on Christmas Day
Max Christie

Probable for Christmas Day
Ajay Mitchell

Out on Christmas Day
Chet Holmgren

Available on Christmas Day
David Montgomery

Questionable to Play With Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Questionable, Expected to Play on Thursday
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Place Rashee Rice on Injured Reserve
T.J. Hockenson

Ruled Out for Week 17
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Josh Johnson

to Start at QB on Thursday Against Dallas
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Davante Adams

Could Sit Out Final Two Regular-Season Games
Brock Bowers

Placed on Injured Reserve Due to Lingering Knee Injury
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Expected to Play on Christmas Day Against the Vikings
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Travis Sanheim

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Tuesday
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
DK Metcalf

has Two-Game Suspension Upheld
Philip Rivers

to Remain the Starter in Week 17
George Kittle

Dealing With Mid-to-Low Ankle Sprain
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Ryan Leonard

Available Tuesday
Tom Wilson

in Danger of Missing First Game of the Season
Phillip Danault

Makes Second Canadiens Debut Tuesday
Collin Graf

Available Against Golden Knights
Jack Eichel

Misses Fourth Straight Game
Vince Dunn

Won't Play Tuesday
Deshaun Watson

Will Not be Activated Off PUP List, 2025 Season is Over
J.J. McCarthy

Ruled Out for Week 17
Rome Odunze

Expected to Return This Season
Christian McCaffrey

Another Monster Game for Christian McCaffrey in Week 16
Brock Purdy

Throws for Five Touchdowns in Week 16
TreVeyon Henderson

in Concussion Protocol, Week 17 Status Unclear
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
Seth Jarvis

Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
Mason Marchment

Scores Twice Monday
Vince Dunn

Injured in Monday's Win
Ilya Sorokin

to Miss Tuesday's Game
CFB

Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
CFB

Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
Willson Contreras

Shipped to the Red Sox
Brandon Lowe

Pirates Acquire Brandon Lowe in Three-Team Trade
Shane Baz

Orioles Acquire Shane Baz From the Rays

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