March 21, 2016

JB Branson and Max Petrie analyze A.J. Pollock or Mookie Betts, deciding which star outfielder they would rather have for the 2016 Fantasy Baseball season.

Welcome back to episode nine of Turning Two. Here's a recap of the topics discussed to this point: who will hit 50 HR, who will win 20 games, who can put up a 20/20 season, who can hit .350, who can reach 50 saves, and who will post a sub-2.00 ERA. We shifted to player-specific material, such as breakout candidates and busts for 2016. Now we are pivoting to player-vs-player analysis as we head into draft time. We focused on pitchers last week. This week we'll look at outfielders.

The outfielders highlighted, A.J. Pollock and Mookie Betts, are high-value commodities that will require a heavy investment on draft day, so it's important you don't mess up! Should you grab the player who broke out in 2015 (Pollock) or the youngster playing out of position (Betts)?Let's discuss.

Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!

Mookie Betts or A.J. Pollock?

Max's Pick: Mookie Betts

If you glance solely at the 2015 numbers, this pick is a landslide in Pollock's favor. But it's key to remember you're drafting on their future production, not past, and for that I reason I'm taking Mookie in 2016.

Betts still had an excellent season, hitting .291 with a 92/18/77/21 line while batting leadoff for a disappointing Red Sox team. He has the tool set to succeed going forward in the leadoff role, thanks to his low K% (12.7%) and how rarely he misses on pitches in the zone (5.5% SwStk%).

Don't be shocked by the 18 home runs either. His HR/FB% did not budge (8.2%) from 2014 when he hit five home runs in 213 plate appearances, and his compact swing produces plenty of hard contact.

The areas where I see the most room for improvement are runs and steals. Batting in front of a healthy Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez (remember HanRam was scorching hot till a freak shoulder injury playing left) should allow Betts to eclipse 100 runs fairly easily. Betts only reaching 21 steals is shocking in hindsight. His 6.7 Speed Score was tied for ninth among all hitters (I should note Pollock was ahead at 7.1). Look for Betts to get closer to 30 steals in 2016.

My last point has nothing to do with Mookie Betts; I simply don't trust A.J. Pollock and am not comfortable with him as my second player, which according to his ADP it will require to attain his services. Given the news about his elbow troubles limiting his start to Spring Training, I have trouble believing Pollock will enter Opening Day 100% healthy and repeating his 20 HR performance. Give me the exciting outfielder without the injury concerns.

JB's Pick: A.J. Pollock

I will start off by saying Mookie Betts is my favorite player on my favorite team. So choosing A.J. Pollock over him shows just how much I believe in Pollock's 2015 impressive breakout campaign. In his first season with over 600 PA, he ranked fourth in the league in hits and his 111 runs ranked third. He showed excellent contact skills, striking out only 89 times. He was one of only four players to reach the heralded 20/20 club, almost doubling the SB requirement with 39, which also ranked third best.

Not only did he run a lot, but he was extremely efficient. His +32 NSB was second to only speedster Dee Gordon. Pollock contributed in every fantasy category, which is extremely rare in today's game. In fact, he was only one double and one SB away from being the only player in the majors to reach 40/20/40 (2B, HR, SB).

Pollocks advanced stats do not show me that he was lucky in 2015, they actually tell the opposite story. His GB/FB ratio was a healthy 1.74, which with his wheels will most often translate to a high BA, but is still low enough to hit 20 HR again. One stat that will back my theory is the unusual amount of sliders he saw in 2015. He was one of only 17 players to see at least a 20.0 SL%. He more than held his own, however, posting a 3.9 wSL (22nd highest). I see the percentage of sliders to come back down closer to the 17.9% he saw in 2014, which means more fastballs. That is great news considering he was Top 20 in the league against the cheese.

Another stat that backs my pick is Pollock's BABIP. While some argue that .338 is high, 26th highest in the MLB, I would argue that it was too low in relation to a .315 BA that ranked seventh. Out of the top 10 BA, only Jose Altuve and Buster Posey had lower BABIP than Pollock. This would make sense, however, considering both of them own a much lower GB/FB ratio (1.30, 1.33 respectively).

A big reason for this, in my opinion "low", BABIP was a sharp decrease in infield hits. In 2014, Pollock hit a 13.2 IFH%, but saw the number almost cut in half to 7.2% in 2015. His 2015 IFH% was the same as Nelson Cruz, and lower than J.D. Martinez. During the second half it was even more comedic, dropping down to 3.3%, which was lower than both James Loney and Kyle Schwarber. Obviously, with his speed, Pollock belongs nowhere near these slugs in infield hits. The IFH% should definitely increase back closer to his 2014 percentage, which will drive the BA up.

The biggest reason I choose Pollock over my main man is the show Pollock put on during the second half of 2015. After the All-Star break, Pollock hit .335 with a .926 OPS, .204 ISO, 20 SB, and only 32 SO (10.4 K%). As the new poster child of speed/pop combination, he owned the highest ISO out of the 20 players that reached 10 SB in the second half.

Pollock bested Betts in all five of the standard fantasy scoring categories in 2015. I don't know what Max has to argue against Pollock, but I know for a fact he doesn't believe Betts is a 20/20 guy in 2016 (see our Who will join 20/20 club article). With that being said he would have to project Betts to score more R and hit a higher BA than Pollock to make up for the lesser pop and speed. Well, I don't see hitting in front of David Peralta/Paul Goldschmidt producing anything under 100 runs. This pick is easy for me, even as I wear my BoSox swag.

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