Welcome back to episode seven of Turning Two. To this point we've focused on stat-based material: who will hit 50 HR, who will win 20 games, who can put up a 20/20, who can hit .350, who can reach 50 saves, and who will post a sub-2.00 ERA. Now we'll shift to a broader topic: breakout players for 2016.

Finding the hidden gems that are prepped to take the next step in their development can launch a team to playoff aspirations and fantasy owners to championship glory. They aren't all necessarily hidden, just inexperienced. Think Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts. The talent was apparent in each of these candidates, they just required taking a risk come draft day (or in some cases, waiver wires).

As usual, Max and I have selected three candidates each who are primed for breakout potential. Agree or disagree, we'll give our opinions on the other's selections and see if we can find some gems. One other thing - in case you missed it, be sure to check out our fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool is loaded up with tiered staff rankings, top fantasy prospects and much more. Now let's get started.

Max's Three 2016 Breakouts

Corey Seager (LAD, SS)

The man of the hour. Thrust into the middle of a playoff race, Seager soared in his limited action. In 113 plate appearances, Seager slashed .337/.425/.561 with 13 XBH and a 19/14 K/BB ratio. If eligible his .986 OPS would have ranked fifth in baseball, ahead of sluggers Miguel Cabrera, Nelson Cruz, and MVP Josh Donaldson. The Dodgers had so much confidence in the youngster he was the No. 3 hitter throughout the playoffs.

Yes, his .387 BABIP was extremely high and is due for regression. But he was mashing in his limited playing time. Anyone who has watched Seager in person can attest to the crack the ball makes off his bat. His 45.6% hard hit rate would have ranked first in baseball along with his 45.6% of hits to center field. Fellow Dodger Adrian Gonzalez said he sees Hall of Fame potential in Seager's future. Don't be scared off by Seager's AAA numbers (.278/.332/.451). This is a star in the making.

JB: Call me crazy, and I'm sure many will, but I don't understand why everyone is jumping on this wagon before its even got 120 miles on it yet. The dude hit .278 with 13 HR and 3 SB (464 PA) in his first taste of AAA pitching in 2015. For 2016 Steamer projects little Seager to hit .265 with 16 HR and 5 SB, which is almost identical to the fantasy numbers Brett Lawrie put up in 2015. The only difference is Seager's being drafted in the sixth round of fantasy drafts this season.

I just can't use 113 PA to make bold assumptions and compare his OPS to the game's bests. His four MLB HR came off of Jon Edwards, Jeff Locke, Josh Collmenter, and Matt Reynolds. Now, I know he won't be facing aces every single game, but I refuse to use one of my top 10 draft picks on what I consider to be an unknown. I easily see him being a LHB Troy Tulowitzki one day, but I don't think we're getting there this year. Talk to me in 2017. 

 

Michael Conforto (NYM, OF)

While Mets nation is stoked to have Yoenis Cespedes and his decked-out Polaris back for (at least) another year, it's the player manning the opposite corner of the outfield they should be hyping. Conforto made the leap from AA to the bigs in July and produced a solid campaign, slashing .270/.335/.506 with 9 HR, not including this rocket off Zack Greinke in the playoffs:

Conforto, like Seager, crushes the baseball. He produced a .236 ISO and 17.0% HR/FB rate, along with a 40.9% hard hit rate that would've tied with Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt for fifth overall if he qualified. While his 20.1 K% isn't ideal, he showed good plate presence (24.3 O-Swing%) and crushes fastballs (10.4 wFB). There's two downsides holding Conforto back; his struggles versus lefties (.214) and the likelihood he bats seventh for the Mets come Opening Day. Given Neil Walker and David Wright's histories of injuries, Conforto may find himself thrust into the top of the order before things are said and done. Regardless, consider Conforto a lock for 20+ home runs in 2016 and an excellent option in fantasy leagues.

JB: Here we are again, but this time with a whopping +80 PA of MLB experience. Yes, his .236 ISO was impressive, but it was the highest he had posted in any other level previously (.191 in AA was the closest), so I am not completely buying a repeat there. But I do believe the power is legit considering he's never posted an OPS below .800. Look for him to produce a HR total at-or-around 20. 

Max mentioned the struggles against the southpaws, and that is where my main concern lies with Conforto. In 2015, he only had to suffer through 15 PA versus LHP, but if the Mets are truly all in on him this season he will be seeing many more than that. This will surely bog his BA down heavily, which will hurt his overall value in fantasy. Like Seager, Conforto will be very good in the future, but I think his true breakout season comes after 2016. 

 

Stephen Piscotty (STL, OF)

The rich get richer. Exit Jason Heyward. Enter Stephen Piscotty. Sure, his skill set doesn't match J-Hey's, but there's plenty to like here. Piscotty slashed .305/.359/.494 over 256 plate appearances and was solid against righties (.299) and lefties (.322). He produced strong contact rates throughout the minors and hits to all fields (34.6% L/ 31.3% C/ 34.1% R) effectively. His low infield-fly ball rate (1.7%) indicates he wasn't giving away freebies either.

His .372 BABIP hints that regression is due in his .305 average, but look for Piscotty to make strides in the power department. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Dispatch wrote an article this week highlighting the relationship between Piscotty and teammate Randall Grichuk and Piscotty's emphasis to make adjustments to his swing to produce more home runs. It's not like Piscotty lacks power; his average fly ball distance was 13th in baseball. Add in the fact he'll start the season atop the Cardinals lineup (projected 2nd), and you have a breakout in the making.

JB: I will admit, Piscotty's batted ball stats from 2015 were very easy on the eyes, especially the 1.7 IFFB% which shows consistent solid contact. At the age of 25, I do believe he is more poised to break out in 2016 than the previous two selections. The expectations are 20,000 leagues lower than those for Seager, and at this point I see Piscotty as more of a pure hitter than Conforto which will translate to a higher BA.

I am agreeing with Max on this pick. However, the term "breakout" will be used solely due to his 19th round ADP in fantasy drafts so far this year. We are talking about a ceiling of 15 HR, 10 SB, with a BA hovering around .280 over a full season. So basically you can gain Brandon Belt production (13th round value) in the 19th round with Piscotty in 2016. We'll still count it as a break out, just not an overly sexy one. 

 

JB's Three 2016 Breakouts

Maikel Franco (PHI, 3B)

If it were not for a HBP that fractured Franco's wrist and subsequently shelved him for six weeks, he would probably be ineligible for this article. He was well on his way to a breakout performance prior to the DL stint. In his 335 PA, the rookie hit 14 HR with a .280 BA and a .360 wOBA. He ranked in the top 10 in HR among rookies, and among those 10, he owned the lowest K% and second highest BA.

If you want to really view his full potential, check out the stats from the month of June. Franco went nuts and hit eight HR, with a .353 BA, 1.039 OPS, .296 ISO, and a 183 wRC+. This kid is a monster, and 2016 will most likely be the last season in which you can draft him outside of the first five rounds.

Max: I'll agree with JB here. Franco displays excellent hand-eye coordination and produces plenty of power without the high K rates you see from most sluggers. His .497 slugging average, .217 ISO, and 128 wRC+ (in layman's terms, 28% better than league average) are mighty impressive. He showed a knack to handle the heat and breaking pitches; versus the fastball, sinker, and slider, he slugged .512, .554, and .569, respectively.

Three concerns here. JB mentioned one, and it's the inflated month of June. He hit eight HR, with five coming in three games. I'll give Franco a pass given the wrist fracture holding him back. Two, he'll also need to improve versus LHP (.232). Lastly, the supporting cast in Philadelphia will hinder his ceiling. Odubel Herrera, Cesar Hernandez, and Ryan Howard need to pull their weight for Franco to make a leap. If Franco shows consistency in 2016 and his teammates give him run-scoring opportunities, watch out.

 

Randal Grichuk (STL, OF)

There is only one Giancarlo Stanton, don't get me wrong, but this kid could become the next best thing when it comes to monstrous hard-hitting ability. In only 350 PA, Grichuk hit 17 HR with a .272 ISO (ninth highest among players with 350 PA) and a .548 SLG (11th highest). His average fly ball distance was 302 feet, and hit a 36.9 Hard%. He can mash.

There is a downside, however. His horrifying 31.4 K% means he will hurt your fantasy team's BA, but based on his 22.0 K% in AAA for 2014, I see that enormous whiff rate lowering somewhat in 2016 which will save his value. He has told reporters this spring that he is targeting 600 PA, with 30 HR being his baseline. With the power he possesses, I'm buying it.

Max: I'm a big fan of Grichuk, so I'll agree here as well. The power is what will carry Grichuk's fantasy value. JB mentioned the power numbers and the average fly ball distance. Another impressive stat is the 93.17 MPH average exit velocity, which was ninth overall according to Statcast. He should be a lock for 20 home runs with a ceiling of 35.

If there's a concern for 5x5 leagues, it's the average. Grichuk hit .270 with a .365 BABIP, well above league average. Look for the average to hover close to .250 than .270. Not a deal breaker, but enough to limit Grichuk from entering the top 10 OF in the near future.

 

Kevin Pillar (TOR, OF)

Once a 32nd round pick in the 2011 draft, Pillar has been continuously overlooked year after year, even after posting a career .841 OPS in the minors. Well, here's to the underdogs. He seized his opportunity to shine in 2015, hitting 12 HR while stealing 25 bases while sporting a cool .278 BA. He was one of only six players hit at least 10 HR with at least 25 SB. The BA should be on the rise, as his lowly .309 BABIP was deflated thanks to an uncharacteristic 17.7 IFFB%.

He will enjoy the everyday CF role in the rowdy Toronto offense, thanks to ranking out as the fourth best defensive OF. Finally earning the opportunity he has deserved, and being in his physical prime at 27 years old, Pillar will finish among the top 30 OF in 2016. Lock it in! Compare his numbers to those of Gregory Polanco, who is being drafted seven rounds earlier in 2016. Pillar has sleeper potential for fantasy owners.

Max: I like Pillar, but I'd make the case his breakout season already occurred. He set career highs in runs (76), HR (12), RBI (56) and SB (25). It's not like this was in limited playing time; he played in 159 games with 628 PA. While Pillar did make a noticeable improvement in his K% (13.5%, 23.0% in '14) he didn't make any power adjustments. His ISO and HR/FB% were lower than 2014, he just had more chances last year.

Pillar's 2015 stats are also inflated by a strong finish; he hit .333 with 12 runs, 12 RBI, and eight stolen bases. Given the depth of Toronto's lineup, it's hard to envision a better spot opening up for Pillar to pad his scoring opportunities. If Dalton Pompey and Devon Travis don't work as leadoff options and Pillar finds his way there, I'll change my tune. Otherwise what you saw in 2015 is what you can expect this season.

Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!

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