Turning Two: Who Will Join the Sub-2.00 ERA Club?

Welcome back to our sixth edition of Turning Two. We've now discussed who will hit 50 HR, who will win 20 games, who can put up a 20/20, who can hit .350, and who can reach 50 saves. This week's topic we'll stick on the pitching side of things and focus on the starters; finishing with a sub-2 ERA.

Recent history would suggest attaining an ERA below 2.00 is not rare, but don't let a narrow view shadow your perception. Jake Arrieta and Zack Grienke were the first duo to have an ERA below 2.00 in the same season, ever. Since 1994, only five other pitchers have completed such a season; Clayton Kershaw (x2), Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez (x2), Kevin Brown, and Greg Maddux (x2).

As usual we will each nominate three pitchers we feel are up to the task. Quick teaser: Mets fans will be quite pleased. This week we have fellow Rotoballer Bill Dubiel (@Roto_Dubs) filling in for JB. Let's get to it.

Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!

Max's Three

Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

First pick and I passed on Greinke and Arrieta, and it wasn't a tough decision in the slightest. Kershaw finished with an impressive 2.13 ERA in 2015 while his 2.24 ERA since 2010 is the best in baseball. This was the first year he didn't lead baseball in ERA since 2010.

As mentioned in the intro Kershaw has already done this twice, posting a 1.77 ERA in '14 and 1.83 ERA in '13.  In fact, a rough April (3.73) and May (3.97) were all that stopped him from doing it again in 2015. He bounced back with a 1.31 ERA in the second half including a 0.27 ERA in July.

His arsenal remains nasty as ever, while he was the only pitcher to reach 300 strikeouts. His 15.9% swinging strike rate was tops in baseball. If there's a concern, it's the 10.1% HR/FB rate, but it's not enough to scare me off the best pitcher in baseball. Look for another dominant year in 2016.

Bill: I don't know, maybe Kershaw gets hurt? That's pretty much the only thing that would keep him from being the best pitcher in baseball again. His FIP was a ridiculous 1.99 last year, meaning he pitched better than his ERA indicated, but that HR/FB ratio that Max mentioned does raise some eyebrows. The last time it was that high was in 2008, which was Kershaw's rookie year (4.26 ERA). Obviously it's silly to make comparisons of any player to his rookie self, but hey, I'm grasping at straws here. Kershaw was the first pick for a reason.

Jacob deGrom (NYM)

Mets fans are so spoiled. You can make a case for deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard as the No. 1 in the rotation, but I'll put my eggs in the deGrom basket.

deGrom finished 2015 with a 2.54 ERA (sixth in MLB) and 0.98 WHIP (fifth) while leading the Mets with 205 strikeouts. He had a 2.14 ERA heading into the All-Star Break but couldn't maintain his performance in August and September. His 2.61 ERA since joining the league in 2014 is fourth among starters while his 2.69 FIP ranks fifth.

deGrom continued to display a dominant arsenal while seeing improvements in his swinging strike rate and swings outside the strike zone. He saw an increase in his fastball velocity (95.0 mph) and the heater graded ninth among starters according to PITCHf/x. Throw in the fact the Mets see the Braves and Phillies 36 times a year, and you've got a recipe for future success for Jacob deGrom.

Bill: Okay this will be a little easier to argue. DeGrom also gets my vote for the most dominant Met, but I don't see him cracking the sub-2.00 ERA threshold. The first point against DeGrom was his BABIP against--it was only .271 in 2015, and I'd expect that to regress to the mean in 2016. I'll go back to that handy HR/FB stat again, and point to DeGrom's 9.5% as a strike against him--although that is certainly going to be negated by the spacious Citi Field. Most important is the fact that DeGrom has never really kept his ERA low at any level. He's certainly capable of shutdown performances, but I think it's too much to ask him to shave off a full 0.5 run off his average MLB ERA, which is what he'll need to do to break 2.00.

Jose Fernandez (MIA)

Notice something in common with my choices? All three reside in the National League, where every sub-2.00 ERA has occurred in the past 20 years besides Pedro Martinez. (Side note: Check out how freak mode Pedro was in '99). Combine a National League starter with the NL East and we have a winner, which brings us to JoFer.

Fernandez was recovering from Tommy John surgery to begin the year and threw his first pitch in July. He finished with a 2.92 ERA over 64.2 innings. The ERA was inflated by a rough September (4.15 ERA). For his career he owns a 2.40 ERA, which is third in baseball in that span ('13-'15).

While his fastball had more velocity post-TJ, PITCHf/x implied a regression in both his fastball and slider, his best two pitches. He rarely threw his curveball (3.9%), a signficant drop from his rookie season (21.3%). Whether these are effects from having Tommy John or if he was taking it slow upon his return remain to be seen. He also saw a spike in his line drive rate (28.7%).

I'm willing to give JoFer a pass for two reasons. The first has been mentioned; the NL East isn't murderer's row. The second is subjective, but it's Fernandez's demands for a $30M/year contract. If you want the Greinke money, you have to put together a Greinke season, and JoFer has the skill set to do such a thing. Innings limit be damned (although it may help our case), Fernandez will bounce back in 2016.

Bill: Fernandez was indeed dominant in 2013 before his Tommy John surgery, putting up a 2.19 ERA over 172.2 innings. However, that season leaves plenty of room for regression. Fernandez had an comically low .240 BABIP against, meaning that by sheer probability he'll allow quite a few more base runners. His ERA may have been 2.19, but his xFIP was 3.08, which is a remarkably stark contrast. Perhaps most importantly, Fernandez seems to be hesitant to use his full arsenal after the surgery--he used his devastating curve ball 21.3% of the time in 2013 compared to just 3.9% of the time in 2015. That is a significant enough difference to trouble me, as that was his put-away pitch. Not only do I not believe he'll toss a sub-2.00 ERA, I'm not going to pay the price for Fernandez in any draft this year.

 

Bill's Three

David Price (BOS)

Unlike Max, I'll not restrict my choices to the clearly subpar NL, however clearly intelligent that strategy might be.

Arguably the game's premier non-Clayton Kershaw lefty, David Price signed a seven-year, $217 million contract with the Beantown Bums (Is that a thing? I'm making it a thing.) in the off-season. As much as I loathe the Red Sox, my admiration for David Price outweighs my animosity. I don't need to throw historical data to explain how great Price is -- but I will anyway. In the last three seasons, Price has compiled a 43-25 record with a 3.01 ERA and 647 strikeouts across 655 innings. He also had a 1.08 WHIP in that time frame, and 10 complete games. At only 30 years old, Price is still in the prime of his pitching career.

Having thrown in the AL East for a majority of his career, Price has pitched in Fenway Park--his new home field--on a number of occasions. In his 11 career starts at Fenway, Price has a 6-1 record to go along with a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. He'll have a talented defense behind him, particularly up the middle with four-time Gold Glove winner Dustin Pedroia at second and Xander Bogaerts paroling short. Price is the ultimate balanced pitcher when it comes to how he gets his outs (career 44.2% GB%, 35.9% FB% and 8.57 K/9), and that should play extremely well in Fenway. While a sub-2.00 ERA is unlikely for anyone, I like Price's chances as much as anyone as he swims through the familiar waters of the AL East.

Max: First off, Bill is right. I picked NL pitchers because I'm here to win. Second, as much as I love Price, I don't see it happening. In 2015 Price had a career-best 2.45 ERA, an improvement which can be traced back to his changeup. He threw it a career-high 22.6% of the time and limited hitters to a .226 average and .370 slugging against the pitch. PITCHf/x graded it as the sixth best among starters. That said, it wasn't all positive for Price. His K% dipped and his BB% rose while his 78,6% LOB% was three ticks above his career average. His SIERA (3.27) and FIP (2.78) suggest he may have overachieved in the ERA department too. Again, I'm a big fan of Price, and as Bill mentions he's loved pitching in Fenway to this point, but I see his ERA hovering closer to 2.75 than 2.00.

Jake Arrieta (CHC)

The reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. The star of many a fantasy baseball...fantasy. Jake Arrieta is the ultimate reclamation project, as his career pulled a complete 180 after being traded to the Chicago Cubs in 2013. During his time in Baltimore, Arrieta sported a not-so-shiny 4.33 ERA over 533.1 innings pitched. After a breakout 2014 season, Arrieta's renaissance reached its crescendo in his Cy Young 2015 campaign, where he posted a 1.77 ERA.

Arrieta's success can be attributed to the development of his cutter--which I've seen referred to as a "slutter" because of how it frequently resembles a slider--and pinpoint control (1.9 BB/9 in 2015). Arrieta is just 29 years old, meaning that, like Price, he is in the prime of his career. I don't see any reason why the Cubs ace won't be able to duplicate his 2015 performance, or at least come close to it. His FIP was an absurdly low 2.35 in 2015, meaning that there was very little luck involved with his dominance. While I expect some regression to the mean as far as Arrieta's BABIP (.246) is concerned, his lethal arsenal should still yield a K/9 over 9.0. I again recognize how rare the sub-2.00 ERA is, but if anyone is capable of repeating it, it's Jake Arrieta.

Max: It won't shock me in the slightest if Arrieta pulls off the back-to-back. Arrieta was a freak in 2015, most notably in the second half as he compiled a 0.75 ERA which included FOUR EARNED RUNS in August and September. My problem is replicating that dominant stretch will next to impossible, but he has some breathing room for regression after posting a 1.77 ERA. His LOB% soured to 80.0% and his GB% to 56.2%, but that can be attributed to his devastating sinker/slider combo, throwing either pitch 71.3% of the time and limiting hitters to a .192 average. To no surprise, his sinker and slider ranked first and third, respectively, according to PITCHf/x. Of the pitchers to have multiple sub-2.00 ERA seasons in the past two decades, they all did it in consecutive seasons. I'm saying Arrieta pulls it off. Queue the music Drake.

Noah Syndergaard (NYM)

I was watching Thor: The Dark World recently and was inspired to write about the Thor who calls Queens his home. Noah Syndergaard is the third head of the hydra that awaits those who venture to Citi Field (along with Matt Harvey and Jacob DeGrom), and he proved in his rookie year how he can already hang with the best in the NL. Come October, the phenom had amassed a 9-7 record with a 3.24 ERA over 150 innings, along with a whopping 166 strikeouts. Syndergaard appropriately relies on a devastating curve ball to buckle hitters--at least when he's not pumping near-100 MPH fastballs past them.

The fact that Syndergaard pitched so well as a rookie is what makes me believe he can go sub-2.00 in 2016. His WHIP was a sparkling 1.047 across 24 starts, and his xFIP (2.91) indicated that he will likely be even better if he can get a bit luckier on batted balls. The determining factor is going to be whether or not he can improve his game overall, as he definitely showed the inconsistency that is typical of rookies in 2015. Beginning with his call-up in May, Syndergaard's monthly ERAs were 1.86, 5.14, 1.32, 4.86, and 2.98. When he's at his best, the Mighty One is clearly one of the best pitchers in the MLB, and with some slight adjustments I believe he can be that good over the course of an entire season. I say Thor drops the hammer in 2016!

Max: Gotta love that in depth research into selecting candidates (it's a good movie, though). Jokes aside, Syndergaard is an excellent pitcher with a strong case to be drafted among the top 15 SP this spring, but 2.00 ERA seems too far a leap for Thor. He finished with a respectable 3.24 ERA in 2015 which was the product of Syndergaard's inconsistency. Bill mentioned the erratic month-to-month ERAs, supported by his 1.14 HR/9. Syndergaard showed flashes of brilliance though, allowing one earned run or less in 11 of his 24 starts. He was propelled by his fastball/curve combo; the curve limited hitters to a .096 average. The long ball is the only thing holding Thor back from making the leap to a top-5 pitcher, but expect to see improvement on his 3.24 ERA in his sophomore campaign.

 

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