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Turning Two: Who Will Pull a 20/20?
Welcome back to our third edition of Turning Two. We've now discussed who will hit 50 HR and who will win 20 games in 2016. This week's topic is a bit easier but still a noteworthy accomplishment: pulling off a 20/20 campaign.
For those that don't know, 20/20 means 20 home runs and 20 steals. In fantasy baseball having a player that can be a valuable asset in multiple categories is essential to constructing a roster. It results in a more balanced team with better odds of competing in Roto leagues.
Four players were able to join the 20/20 group in 2015: Ryan Braun, Paul Goldschmidt, Manny Machado, and A.J. Pollock. We've got six new candidates to join the club in 2016. Only one player we chose has completed a 20/20 previously, so there's plenty of new blood to read over. Let's get started.
Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!
Max's Three:
Charlie Blackmon (COL - OF)
Here's a name you may have guessed was already in the 20/20 club. Blackmon has had consecutive seasons of 19/28 and 17/43, respectively, establishing himself as an All-Star in the Rockies outfield. There's no concern on my end that Blackmon will reach 20 steals, so let's focus on the remaining link: the homers.
Blackmon, like teammate Nolan Arenado, hit more home runs away from Coors (7 at home, 10 away) but still had a higher SLG (.500) and OPS (.890) at home. The spacious dimensions may have contributed to those numbers (he had eight triples at home, one away), but hitting only seven homers at Coors is strange. In comparison, he hit 13 HR at Coors in 2014. Blackmon has the tendencies of a home-run hitter; 15 of his HR were pulled, while his 45.0% Pull % was 23rd in baseball. The HR/FB rate dipped from 10.4% in 2014 to 9.3%, but his hard hit rate increased to 32.7% and his ISO was a career-high .163.
If there's a reason for concern with Blackmon, it's the logjam in the Rockies outfield. Should the Rockies decide to keep Carlos Gonzalez and Corey Dickerson, someone is going to have to rest on any given night. Given Blackmon's value as the leadoff hitter, I doubt he's the player who gets the shaft in this scenario. Put me down for Blackmon reaching the 20 HR mark, and if he doesn't steal 20 bases I'll eat my hat.
JB: Blackmon had a fantastic season in 2015. He was very good in 2014, too. In neither year did he crack 20/20, albeit missing it by only one and three HR respectively. He did hit a career high ISO of .163, but that is still not an impressive number. His career average ISO of .148 is even less impressive. The only two players who hit at least 20 HR with an ISO less than Blackmon's in 2015 were Prince Fielder and Robinson Cano. Both of which are aging hitters, 31 and 33, that have had 30+ HR seasons in their careers. Other than those two studly outliers, a .150-.160 ISO just doesn't match up with a 20 HR hitter profile. But he plays half his home games in Coors field, so anything is possible. It also is worth noting that since 2008, Blackmon has only reach 600 PA in four seasons due to multiple injuries. He has now hit that PA mark in three straight seasons. He is either completely over the injuries that caused all that missed time early in his career, or he is due for one in 2016. Knock on wood, but it would sure be difficult for him to reach 20 HR if he spends any time at all on the shelf.
Although I would really enjoy seeing it, Max will not be eating his hat at the end of the season. Blackmon had 43 SB on a crazy 56 attempts in 2015, and 28 SB in 2014. With his good on- base ability (.345 OBP), 20 SB is the floor for his SB potential in 2016.
Starling Marte (PIT - OF)
Marte came so close to joining the 20/20 club in 2015 (19/30) but ended up one bomb short of the mark. It's somewhat surprising Marte wasn't able to reach 20 HR; he hit 10 HR in April/May and had 13 entering the break, but a sluggish August cost him the chance to crack 20.
There's a lot to like with Marte. He hits to all fields (7 of his 19 HR were to center or oppo), his 19 HR were a career high, he's in the prime of his career (27), and he set a career high in HR/FB rate (18.6%). But there are definitely flaws to be aware of. Even though he set a career-high in HR, his SLG, OPS, and ISO all dropped from 2014 while his GB/FB rate spiked to 2.37 (10th worst in baseball). That indicates it may be difficult to maintain 19 HR, let alone reach 20, and that his 18.6% HR/FB was fluky. I'm willing to bet against the tide and say Marte puts it all together in year five.
JB: Max pretty much summed up my whole argument in that last paragraph. His 22.7 FB% was laughable, and I consider him extremely lucky to have hit 19 in 2015. Let me give you a few comparisons of players who hit more fly balls than Starling Marte this past season: Jean Segura, Andrelton Simmons, Erick Aybar, and Billy Burns. All four of those players combined did not hit 20 HR. Sure he hit the ball slightly harder than these players, but with a 21.3 Soft%, it was not often enough. The 18.6 HR/FB% was his career high, as stated by Max, and was six points higher than his 2014 and 2013 percentages. Like Blackmon, Marte's stolen bases have no chance of jeopardizing him missing out on the club. The past three seasons he has swiped 30, 30, and 41 SB respectively. But the luck he received in the power department in 2015 can not be expected to return in 2016, which is why I will pass on this selection.
David Peralta (ARI - OF)
Here's my sleeper of the group. Peralta has yet to reach 20 HR or 20 SB in his first two seasons, but he's got the skill set to get it done. Peralta hit 17 HR in 517 plate appearances with a .522 SLG and .210 ISO, establishing himself as an everyday player for Arizona and forcing the Diamondbacks hand in regards to their cluttered outfield. He really turned it on in the second half, batting .360 with nine home runs. He'll enter the season with an everyday role and should have an excellent shot at reaching 20 homers.
That leads us to the second portion; steals. Peralta only stole nine bases last season, which was a career-high for him across all MLB levels. That's not to say Peralta doesn't have wheels. His 5.6 Speed Score was 22nd among outfielders, ahead of fellow speedsters Odubel Herrera, Cameron Maybin, and Mike Trout. He's on the right team to see a spike in steals; the Diamondbacks' 122 SB were second in baseball. Perhaps Chip Hale was hesitant to take the restraints off Peralta. Peralta did steal four bases in September, a positive sign as we head to 2016. It'll be quite the leap should Peralta complete a 20/20 season, and fantasy owners will be ecstatic given his ADP. He makes for an excellent OF3 and needs to be on your draft radar.
JB: I respect the boldness of this pick, bravo. I agree with Max on Peralta reaching the 20 HR mark in 2016. Yes, his HR/FB% was high, jumping from 9.6 to 17.7 in one season. But this increase had less to do with luck, and everything to do about increased PA against RHP. In 2014 he only had 267 PA versus righties. 2015 saw an increase to 427, in which he hit .325, 16 HR, 64 RBI, 23 doubles, and eight triples. With Ender Inciarte gone, and Peralta entrenched in an everyday role, he will see enough AB to get over the two-zero mark for the first time in his career.
The SB side of the club is where David Peralta will be denied entry. He posted a good BB% (8.5) and a great OBP (.371), and from the look of his league-leading 10 triples one would think this guy would be tearing up the base paths. But for some reason, Peralta just doesn't run often enough to reach 20 SB. He had 11 SB attempts in 2014, and 13 attempts in 2015. He has the speed, no doubt, but I have to see him reach 20 stolen base ATTEMPTS for once in his career before I can agree to predicting 20 SB in 2016.
JB's Three:
Carlos Correa (HOU - SS)
The 2015 AL Rookie of the Year is the perfect candidate for joining the 20/20 club this season. After being called up in June, Correa hit 22 HR and had 14 SB in only 99 G. Between the minors and his MLB time, his total for 2015 was 32/32. He hit a HR every 21.2 PA, which was lower (better) than many notable sluggers like Kris Bryant, Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo, and Jose Abreu. His impressive .233 ISO and .857 OPS led all shortstops (min. 400 PA). Even if his 24.2 HR/FB% (eighth highest in the league) is not sustainable, he has plenty of room to spare to gain entry into this club. One of the main contributors to his great pop (32.9 Hard%) was showing a veteran's pitch recognition. He was great against off-speed pitches, posting a position leading value against sliders (6.7 wSL), and a respectable 3.4 wCH.
This guy can run. Before suffering a broken leg in 2014, Correa had 20 SB in just 249 PA. In addition to his 32 total SB in 2015, he was only caught stealing five times. His career BB% in the minors was over 10.0, so he will have no issue getting on base to put his wheels to use. Playing for Houston will only help his cause, as they ranked third in the MLB in stolen base attempts in 2015. The 21 year old is leaving the 2016 draft boards in the first round, so obviously I am not the only one expecting a 20/20 season out of Carlos Correa.
Max: No argument here. As JB mentions Correa's 24.2 HR/FB% is not going to last, but the power is real. Along with ISO and OPS, he led shortstops in wRC+ (133) and HR (22) while missing two months of the season. This is where I remind you Correa is only 21 years old. Correa is a lock for a 20/20.
Carlos Gomez/George Springer (HOU - OF)
To recap, there were only three players to hit 20 HR and steal 20 bases in 2015. As you can see, I am predicting that the Houston Astros alone will match that total in 2016. Since Carlos Gomez is coming off a disappointing season and his ADP is much lower than George Springer, I will focus this selection on Gomez. All you need to know about George Springer is that he is still only 26 years old, went 16/16 in 102 G in 2015, and went 37/45 between two levels of the minors in 2013.
2015 was the first season since 2012 (missed by one HR that year) that Carlos Gomez did not reach the 20/30 milestone. Due to injuries to his hamstring and intercostal (ribs), Gomez was limited to 115 G last season. He definitely looked like a different player than the previous three years. He wasn't hitting the ball as hard as we were used to seeing, as his Hard% dropped six whole points from 2014, and his HR/FB% dropped from 13.4 to 9.7. He was much less efficient on the base paths also, stealing 17 out of 28 attempts in 2015. Compare that to 34-for-46 in 2014, and 40-for-47 in 2013. To me, it was obvious that the hamstring strain led to the reduced running, and the injury to his core led to the lack of power. Look for the change of scenery and an off season to heal his aging body to put Carlos Gomez in a great situation to get back to what made him so valuable in fantasy baseball for the three previous seasons.
Max: Technically four players had a 20/20 (Goldschmidt was 30/20) but semantics aside, I cannot support the Gomez pick. Gomez saw noticeable dips in SLG (.409), OPS (.724), ISO (.154), and HR/FB% (9.7%). To continue on the Negative Nancy train, his GB rate spiked (42.6%) while his LD rate dipped (19.3%) and soft contact % rose (23.1%). These are not the signs of a player on the verge of a bounceback, injury or not. The hamstring does help explain the speed, and I agree with JB he will get back over 20+ steals, but given Gomez's OBP (.314), I doubt he gets higher than 25. As for Springer, he has all the potential to reach 20/20, but he just can't stay healthy. I'll put my chips in a safer basket come draft day, but when Springer finally puts it all together for a full campaign, watch out.
This is my favorite pick in this article, and me being a Red Sox fan has nothing to do with it. Mookie Betts has never hit 20 HR in a season, although he hit 18 in 2015. It's not like he lacks the power needed to hit 20 HR, as he still smacked 68 XBH. His GB/FB dropped below 1.00 this season, as his FB% rose to 42.4 from 38.6 in 2014. His HR/FB% was a low 8.2, but was a good sign considering it was identical to his 2014 percentage. He pulled the ball six percent more this season than he had previously, which is a fantastic trend in regards to his power potential. Out of the 18 HR in 2015, 16 of them were to left field, and his OPS when pulling the ball was 1.303. Even more-so than Carlos Correa, Betts thrived on off-speed pitches in 2015, and owns a sexy 86.6 Contact% and a miniscule 5.4 SwStr%. Combine his great contact abilities, a 31.2 Hard%, and the increase in Pull%, and you have a tasty recipe for over 20 HR in 2016.
The speed is no question for Betts. Despite his on-the-fringe 21 SB in 2015, he was actually the best base runner in baseball. My proof is his top ranked 8.3 Base Running- Runs Above Average. He also stole 40 bases in 2014 between the majors and minor league. So there's that, too.
Max: Going to have to disagree here, even though I love me some Mookie Betts. There's no question Betts will steal 20 bases, so let's focus on the pop. He made noticeable improvements in ISO (.188) and SLG (.479) while his pull rate climbed to 40.3% from 34.6%. But slugging percentage doesn't always equal homers. As JB mentioned, Betts had 68 XBH and finished sixth in doubles (42) and eight in triples (8). His swing is more likely to produce gappers than home runs, as evidence by the fact he's never hit 20 HR at any level in his career. In fact his 18 HR were a product of a hot September (.358, 5 HR) including three home runs in the last two games. Count me out on Betts reaching the 20/20 club, but he remains a top 10 OF heading into 2016.
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