RADIO
Rotoballers Max Petrie and JB Branson debate which MLB pitchers have a great chance at 20 wins in 2016 and provide targets for your MLB Fantasy Baseball drafts.
Turning Two: Will Any Pitcher Win 20 Games?
Welcome back, Rotoballers! We are now on the second edition of Turning Two. If you missed our debut, we discussed who will hit 50 HR in the 2016 season. Our next topic flips to the second part of the diamond: the pitchers. Will any pitcher reach the 20 win mark?
Twenty wins is no easy feat, but it's certainly feasible. Wins are more of an arbitrary number, contingent on numerous external factors. Last year we saw two pitchers join the group (Jake Arrieta - 22, Dallas Keuchel - 20) with six pitchers falling within two wins of reaching 20. It wasn't just your typical aces in this group either. Collin McHugh won 18 games; Colby Lewis won 17. There are three main keys to reaching the 20 win mark: a solid IP/9 rate, a strong offense, and a quality bullpen. They all aren't requirements, but it sure does make life a lot easier.
There's a few pitchers in our selections that have already reached 20 wins at some point in their career. But there are also some young guns who haven't fully made their mark on the MLB scene. Let's get started.
Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!
JB's Three:
Jake Arrieta (CHC - SP)
Just like Chris Davis last week, Arrieta is my no-brainer pick to ensure at least a little street cred. At 29 years old, Arrieta has finally blossomed into an absolute monster. The NL Cy Young Award winner is coming off a league leading 22 W season, in which he accumulated the third most IP (229.0). Out of his 33 GS, he went the distance four times, three for shut outs. Arrieta was just untouchable in 2015, which even included a ridiculous 34 inning scoreless streak, and a 12-1 record and 0.75 ERA in the second half. Over the past two seasons, his HR/9 is the lowest in the league, at a laughable 0.35. He was one of only six starting pitchers in 2015 to own a K/9 over 9.0, a HR/9 under 1.0, and a GB% above 50%. None of the other five were nominated in this article.
As if Arrieta needs any help, he is still going to receive plenty from the absolutely loaded Cubs. After the All Star break, they ranked sixth in the league in runs scored. The bullpen posted the eighth best ERA (3.38) and returns studs Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop while adding valuable utility man Adam Warren. Defensively the Cubs ranked near the bottom of the league, but replace Starlin Castro (0.4 dWAR) with Addison Russell (2.6 dWAR) and add Gold Glove winner Jason Heyward and you can bet your bottom dollar those defensive rankings will vastly improve.
Max: JB is such a front-runner, but I have to agree here. He is correct, Arrieta has been dominant for two years now, most notably his 34 inning scoreless streak mentioned above. His sinker was simply unhittable; he threw it 29.1% of the time and hitters hit a paltry .198 against it. He showed no signs of slowing down in 2015 and will now have Jason Heyward roaming the outfield. Having Schwarber's glove in the field is a detriment, but his offense more than makes up for it. The last NL pitcher with consecutive 20-win seasons was Roy Oswalt in '04 and '05. Look for Arrieta to join the group this year.
Cole Hamels (TEX - SP)
Since I went with such an easy first pick, the next two are ones that will make me look like a genius come season's end. Cole Hamels is the first one. Since 2011, he's pitched the sixth most innings in the league and owns a 3.12 ERA over that span. But in these six seasons, Hamels averaged a 12-9 record thanks to lack-luster run support. Had he pitched for almost any other team than the Phillies for the past 10 years, he would already have a few 20 W seasons under his belt. But this is no longer an issue thanks to his trade to the Rangers in 2015. To put it into perspective, in 20 GS with the Phillies he earned six W. In 12 GS with the Rangers he earned seven W.
To reiterate the main point here, Hamels is going to get plenty of run support in Texas. The Rangers scored the third most runs in the league in 2015 and will only get better in 2016 with a healthy Adrian Beltre (played with torn ligament in thumb) and a full season from Rougned Odor. As mentioned above, Colby Lewis won 17 G in 2015.
Max: Gotta disagree here. Yes, the Rangers will be a potent offense, but that bullpen is going to let Hamels done a lot in 2016. They had a 4.12 ERA (24th), 1.35 WHIP (22nd), and 12.8% HR/FB (27th). Even with the addition of Tom Wilhelmsen, Hamels will likely lose a few wins to blown leads. Hitters are also catching up to Hamels' fastball/change combo; Hamels allowed a .260 ISO against the heater, easily the worst of his career. Count me out on Hamels reaching 20 wins.
Marcus Stroman (TOR - SP)
My second gutsy pick, Marcus Stroman, only started four games in 2015 after tearing his ACL prior to the start of the season. But despite the limited action this year, we all know Stroman is a top level talent. During his two years in the minors, he never posted higher than a 3.38 ERA or lower than a 9.0 K/9. As a rookie in 2014, he won 11 games in only 20 GS, with a fantastic 2.84 FIP. Also for what it's worth, in his four GS in 2015, he earned four W. We're talking a potential 30-0 season with that pace! Kidding of course, well sort of.
The Blue Jays offense is crazy good. They easily ranked first in the MLB in runs scored, scoring 127 more than the second place team. With the likes of Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Troy Tulowitzki, plus the emergence of Kevin Pillar and Chris Colabello, Stroman could be looking at historic run support in 2016. Drew Hutchison earned 13 W for Toronto in 2015 with a 5.57 ERA. Enough said.
Toronto was also in the top half of the league in Bullpen ERA (3.50) and defense in 2015. The bullpen was boosted this off-season with the acquisition of Drew Storen, which should allow rookie phenom Roberto Osuna to blossom in a lower leverage set up role and Brett Cecil to dominate as more of a lefty specialist. As for the projected defense, that too will improve. Jose Reyes can do great things with his glove, but over 13 seasons, owns a 3.2 dWAR. Troy Tulowitzki boasts a much sexier career dWAR of 14.2. Also don't forget the 13th ranked player in Defensive Runs Saved, Kevin Pillar, roams the outfield.
Max: Damn it, you convinced me here. I LOVE Marcus Stroman and am of the belief the David Price acquisition in July was instrumental to Stroman's growth. He had the opportunity to shadow an established ace (no offense, R.A. Dickey) and experience playoff baseball for the first time. With Price's departure, it's on Stroman's shoulders to carry the load atop the rotation and he'll have plenty of run support. The ACL seems fully healed and I'm not concerned about a potential re-injury. Throw in a Drew Storen-Roberto Osuna combo to finish games, and Stroman has a shot. At the least consider him a lock for 15 wins.
Max's Three:
Jacob deGrom (NYM - SP)
My choice for the No. 1 pitcher in the Mets vaunted rotation, deGrom is in an excellent spot to win 20 games. He only reached 14 wins in 30 starts in 2015, although he only started 30 games. The average front of the rotation pitchers gets 32 starts, a number he should reach in 2016. deGrom showed no signs of a sophmore slump, making his first All-Star game and compiling a 2.54 ERA. deGrom compiled 23 quality starts and lowered his walk rate, making significant strides as he heads into his third season with the Mets.
Another factor to selecting deGrom was his rather unfortunate luck versus the bottom feeders of the NL East; he went 1-1 over five starts versus the Braves and Phillies. Neither of those teams made major offensive improvements over the offseason, while the Mets will get a full season from Michael Conforto and the additions of Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker. Walker and Daniel Murphy are a push, but Cabrera should be a boost from Wilmer Flores.
If there's a concern for deGrom reaching 20 wins, it's the bullpen. The Mets bullpen ranked 11th in ERA (3.48), a number influenced by Jeurys Familia's dominance (1.94 ERA) in the closer role. Whether or not middle relievers Addison Reed, Carlos Torres, and Hansel Robles can get the ball to Familia will be the key. Given the parity in the National League, notably in the East, deGrom has an excellent chance at 20 wins.
JB: Daggum, how can you possibly argue against any of these picks? Everything about Jacob DeGrom screams super star; the K/9, the HR/9, the WHIP, the FIP, the hair. He would have finished with an even more absurd stat line had it not been for bad luck in the second half. His numbers suggest he actually pitched better, but opponents BABIP raised from .253 to .300, and their HR/FB% from 7.4 to 12.4. His second half FIP and xFIP remained fantastic, but his ERA jumped above 3.00. The only point of concern I can possible dig up is the work load. The 191.0 IP in 2015 was more than he had ever pitched in his career, minors included. We don't know what that increase in stress will do to his arm in 2016. That's all I got.
Max Scherzer (WSH - SP)
I'm sticking in the NL East for my next pick. It's simply too good to pass up pitchers who get to pitch in a division with the Braves and Phillies likely headed for a battle for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft. Scherzer only won 14 games in 2015, but keep in mind 10 of those came in the first half. Scherzer is already a member of the 20-win club, winning 21 with the Tigers in 2013, the same year he won the Cy Young award.
The Nationals were a certified mess in 2015. Injuries to Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth derailed the offense, while the clubhouse chemistry wasn't there under former coach Matt Williams. Rendon, Werth, and Zimmerman should all be healthy heading to Spring Training, while Williams has been replaced by Dusty Baker. Baker is known for riding his starters, and Scherzer is the perfect fit for that trait; Scherzer was tied with Jake Arrieta in GS, CG, and SHO in 2015.
There's two major concerns with Scherzer reaching 20 wins; the defense behind him and the bullpen. The defense ranked 15th overall and that was with recently departed Yunel Escobar's porous defense. The bullpen is much more concerning; Drew Storen is in Toronto, leaving Blake Treinen and Shawn Kelley as the likely setup men to Jonathan Papelbon. Regardless, the weak division and Baker's willingness to give starters a long leash gives me confidence Mad Max will be a repeat 20-win club member in 2016.
JB: Another elite pitcher, owning the third best K/9 (10.86) and the league's best strikeout to walk ratio (8.12). But Scherzer started slipping after the All-Star break in 2015, and finished 4-5 with a 3.72 ERA. This was mostly in part to being very gracious with the long ball. His 1.58 second half HR/9 was fourth highest in the league, and opponents owned a 17.7 HR/FB% during this stretch. The biggest issue I have with this pick is that the Nationals haven't done enough to give me a reason to believe Scherzer will win 20 G. Other selections in this article have had something happen to their situation that would benefit them winning more games this season. Hamels and Price are on a new team, and Stroman has an ACL that is not torn. The Nationals have made some moves this off-season, but nothing that suggests to me that they will be improved in 2016. They replaced Denard Span with Ben Revere, Ian Desmond with Danny Espinosa until Trea Turner gets the call, and Yunel Escobar with Daniel Murphy. Not to mention they traded away their strong set up man, Drew Storen. If the Nationals aren't going to be a vastly improved team this season, I don't see any reason to believe Scherzer is going to gain six more wins from his 14 he earned in 2015.
David Price (BOS - SP)
Should this prediction come true there will be plenty of Red Sox fans happy with the 7-year/$217M investment they gave Price in the offseason. Price was arguably the top prize this winter and rightfully so; he finished 18-5 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.08 WHIP between the Tigers and Blue Jays. Price truly is a sight for sore eyes in Boston; Wade Miley led all Red Sox with 11 wins.
Now he gets to call Boston home, a place he's loved to pitch in. In 11 starts at Fenway he is 6-1 with a 1.95 ERA. Price averaged 6.8 IP/GS last season and will be supported by a stacked bullpen. Incumbent relievers Koji Uehara and Junichi Tazawa will welcome Carson Smith and new closer Craig Kimbrel to the fold. The defense behind him will be much improved now that the Hanley Ramirez outfield project is over. A outfield trio of Rusney Castillo-Mookie Betts-Jackie Bradley Jr. is projected to be above-average among all outfields, but it remains to be seen how Hanley adjusts to first base. A worst-case scenario would be HanRam matching Pablo Sandoval's poor defense across the diamond.
Given the strength of the AL East and the uncertainty at first and third defensively, reaching the 20-win mark will be no easy feat for Price, but his track record in Fenway combined with a top-five bullpen give me confidence he can crack the 20 wins for the first time since 2012.
JB: The only reason I did not pick David Price was because I am a huge Boston fan. Couldn't risk being called a homer. David Price is a great pick by Max. He is a workhorse, and has pitched the fourth most innings since 2010. He has been stellar at Fenway in his career, facing strong Red Sox offenses. The Sox were fourth in the league in runs scored in what was a down year for the team, and the bullpen looks like it could be one of the best we've seen in a while. The only negative for David Price this season is his competition. He has struggled against the hated Yankees (career 4.04 ERA, including 8 ER in 2.1 IP in April), and three of the four AL East opponents ranked in the top ten in runs scored against southpaws in 2015.
MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
