RADIO
Rotoballer's Max Petrie and JB Branson analyze which top-flight pitcher in the NL East you should target in your 2016 Fantasy Baseball Draft.
Welcome back to episode nine of Turning Two. Here's a recap of the topics discussed to this point: who will hit 50 HR, who will win 20 games, who can put up a 20/20 season, who can hit .350, who can reach 50 saves, and who will post a sub-2.00 ERA. We shifted to player-specific material, such as breakout candidates and busts for 2016. Now we are pivoting to player-vs-player analysis as we head into draft time.
This week we will start with pitchers. After the top three (Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Jake Arrieta) there is plenty of debate regarding the order of the notable starters. The one we will focus on resides in the NL East. Do you draft Matt Harvey aka The Dark Knight, a full year removed from Tommy John? Or do you draft Stephen Strasburg, who's pitching for a new contract? Let's discuss.
Have a subject you want discussed? Send us a note via Twitter to RotoBaller (@RotoBaller), Max (@Max_Petrie) or JB (@JBsFantasyHelp) and let us know!
Matt Harvey or Stephen Strasburg?
Max's Pick: Matt Harvey
This isn't close in my opinion, but let's have some fun with it. Matt Harvey came back from Tommy John surgery and was his usual dominant self. His 2.71 ERA and 1.02 WHIP were 8th and T-7th among starters pitchers, respectively, over 189.1 innings pitched. His K rate dipped to 8.94 and the walk rate increased, but Harvey was still able to maintain a 20.0% K/BB %. He was one of only 11 pitchers to accomplish that feat among qualified starters (Spoiler alert: Strasburg wasn't one of them).
Harvey really turned things on in August; over 27.0 IP, he allowed one run on a HR (0.33 ERA) and walked two people. He would go on to allow just four more walks all year. The Mets tried to limit his usage to end the year, which may have played into his poor ending (3.99 ERA). If you take out September, Harvey had a 2.48 ERA in 2015.
The slider remained mightily impressive; in 112 AB he allowed a .188 average and .250 slugging percentage with a measly five extra-base hits. If there's a pitch that needs improvement, it's his change. He allowed a career-worst .235 average and .382 slugging versus the change, which in perspective aren't grotesque numbers. We just expect dominance from Mr. Harvey.
Harvey is arguably a top-10 pitcher when healthy and will be a year removed from Tommy John this year. I have no problem gambling on him to stay healthy in 2016 over Strasburg, who can never seem to get out of his own way. Count one for The Dark Knight.
JB's Pick: Stephen Strasburg
If you've read any of the other Turning Two articles, you know I enjoy the bold. With that being said, this is the year of Stephen Strasburg. Yes he was hurt in 2015, but its not like this guy is completely injury-prone. In 2014 he pitched 215 innings which is more than Harvey ever has. Also, to be clear, Strasburg did maintain higher than a 20 K-BB%. It was 24.7% in fact, and 4.7% higher than Harvey. Max might have forgotten to expand the IP search parameters since Strasburg only pitched 127 innings. For this reason, all rankings in my piece will be among starting pitchers with at least 120 IP.
On May 29th, Strasburg went on the DL with an oblique injury (hey, it happens) and finished the first half of the season with a horrific 5.16 ERA. By the end of the season, he owned a 3.46 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 2.69 xFIP. The FIP and xFIP ranked ninth and fifth best respectively. He racked up 155 K in 127 IP, which equated to the third highest K/9 (10.96), and sixth highest K/BB (5.96). He also generated a ton of weak contact, evident by his 14.2 IFFB% and 21.8 Soft%. This was due to his filthy 80 MPH curveball which he threw 10th most often in the league. Compare this Soft% to Harvey, who even during his "strong" second half, only generated a 12.6 Soft%.
The real eye opening stats from Stephen Strasburg's 2015 campaign occurred after his return from the oblique injury. In 10 GS for the second half, he posted the third lowest ERA (1.90), 92 K, only eight BB, and held opponents to a measly .176 BA. This is what Strasburg is capable of when healthy. His 12.48 K/9 and 11.50 K/BB both easily ranked first. For a reference point, Clayton Kershaw owned the second best K/BB for the second half, at 9.40. To further drive the point home, Strasburg's 37.4 K%, 1.09 BB/9, and 1.95 xFIP also ranked first. What else do you need to get excited about this guy?
According to ESPN league ADP, Strasburg is currently the 16th SP off fantasy boards for 2016. Being that there is no question marks regarding his current health, that is much too low for arguably the most effective pitcher down the stretch last season. I do believe Strasburg will finish the season ranked higher than Harvey, mostly thanks to the massive K upside. It would much better benefit your fantasy team to pass over Harvey at his current ADP, grab some offense, and take Strasburg in the following round. Steamer600, which projects all players at 600 AB or 200 IP, agrees with me on this matchup. They value Harvey at $20.40 while valuing Strasburg at $25.75, and like I said before, Stras has reached that 200 innings mark while The Dark Knight has not.
Bottom line: if the "injury risk" is the only argument you have against Strasburg, you're going to miss out on one hell of a fantasy season.
MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room
[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]
