Eric Cross' Top 10 First Base (1B) Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Rankings for 2025

February 10, 2025

Eric Cross' top first base (1B) dynasty fantasy baseball rankings heading into 2025. He discusses his top 1B targets for fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.

The Super Bowl and football season are in the rearview mirror, which prompted the annual "It's baseball season" tweets to fill up my timeline. But in the dynasty fantasy baseball world, it's always baseball season!

I'll be continuing my positional dynasty fantasy baseball rankings series today with the first base position, which is loaded at the top but doesn't have a ton of quality depth.

For my additional dynasty fantasy baseball rankings and write-ups, check out my Patreon, where you can find my full Top 75 dynasty first base rankings. And make sure to continue checking RotoBaller, as I'm going to be going through all positions in the coming weeks!

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1B Dynasty Rankings for Fantasy Baseball

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR (Age 25)

While I could see any of the next three having a better season in 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets the nod as the top dynasty first baseman for me, as he's five years younger than Matt Olson and seven younger than Bryce Harper. Guerrero had the best season of his career that didn't involve minor league parks and has proven to be one of the game's most durable and high-floor hitters.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 23rd home run of the season.

He's now batting .320 with a .939 OPS

This run he's on is ridiculous. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/kYi9JZ3W1I

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) August 9, 2024

In 697 plate appearances last season, Guerrero slashed .323/.396/.544 with 98 runs, 44 doubles, 30 home runs, and 103 RBI. This was his fourth straight season with at least 156 games played, and he's only missed a total of 12 games over the last five seasons.

Guerrero's quality of contact remains elite. He was above-average in zone contact (85%) and overall contact (78.5%) last season while walking 10.2% of the time and only striking out in 13.8% of his plate appearances.

Given the age gap between Guerrero and the other elite options in this position, the crown will sit atop his head until another young option emerges.

2. Bryce Harper, PHI (Age 32)

While I'm still sky-high on Harper, we can't ignore that he's 32 now and hasn't played 150 games in a season since 2019. But fortunately for Harper, he was able to play 145 games in 2024 which was his highest mark since 2019.

Harper got back up to 30 home runs with 85 runs, 87 RBI, seven steals, and a .285/.373/.525 slash line. On top of that, Harper recorded the best zone contact rate (84.9%) of his career and improved his overall contact rate by nearly 7% from 2023.

When on the field, he's still an early-round talent with elite production in four categories, but he's now to the point where he's no longer a great target for rebuilding dynasty teams. But for contenders, Harper is still an elite option with plenty left in the tank.

3. Matt Olson, ATL (Age 30)

While Olson's overall production took a step back in 2024, he still had his sixth straight season with at least 29 home runs while providing elite quality of contact metrics. Olson was also much better in the second half, slashing .271/.366/.530 with 16 home runs in 287 plate appearances.

If any buy-low window is there in your leagues, I'd look to capitalize on that. Maybe he won't return to the 50-homer club in 2025, but this is still a Top-30 caliber player overall, given his ability to be a force in three categories and provide a decent AVG and OBP as well.

Even with the dip, Olson still posted a 12.4% barrel rate, 91.5 mph AVG EV, and 47.4% hard-hit rate in 2024 while improving his zone and overall contact rates.

Only 14 hitters have missed 50 or fewer games over the last five seasons combined. pic.twitter.com/VjuMVcodIe

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 8, 2025

Another area of Olson's profile that needs to be mentioned is his durability. Olson has only missed six games combined over the last five seasons and has played in every game for the last three seasons.

4. Freddie Freeman, LAD (Age 35)

It's not often that you'll see a 35-year-old this high in any positional dynasty ranking for me, but Freddie Freeman isn't your normal 35-year-old hitter. He's as safe as they come and isn't showing any signs that a big drop-off is coming, even if his slash line did drop a bit from 2023 to 2024. In 147 games last season, Freeman slashed .282/.378/.476 with 81 runs, 22 home runs, 89 RBI, and nine steals.

Freeman is still posting above-average quality of contact metrics with an elite approach (12.2% BB, 15.7% K) and above-average contact rates. Sure, his prime is behind him, but I'd still expect another two to three years of elite production. Freeman is a great piece for any contending dynasty team to have but only if you're contention window is now and not a year or two away.

5. Pete Alonso, NYM (Age 30)

With another 34 home runs in 2024, Pete Alonso now has at least 34 home runs in all five full seasons so far, and he was on his way to another in the shortened 2020 season. Alsonso also has at least 88 RBI, 81 runs, 60 walks, and 152 games played in each of those five full seasons.

The only area that isn't consistent is his AVG, though, as that fluctuates from .217-.271 with more than a 20-point change in all but one season.

But hey, at least you can count on him being impactful in three categories, racking up the volume, and just keep your fingers crossed that the AVG isn't detrimental. I'd bank on the AVG increasing in 2025, too, as Alonso posted an above-average 85.9% zone and 75.3% overall contact rate while dropping his chase rate for the second consecutive season.

6. Triston Casas, BOS (Age 24)

Do yourself a favor and go buy Triston Casas right now before people remember that he was a Top-5 hitter in the game in the second half of the 2023 season. From July 14 through the end of the 2023 season, Casas slashed .317/.417/.617 with 15 home runs in 211 plate appearances.

Triston Casas hits the second @RedSox homer of the 1st inning! 💪 pic.twitter.com/jASwgC7zwb

— MLB (@MLB) April 19, 2024

A major rib injury sidelined Casas for a major chunk of the 2024 season and it was still impacting him a tad upon returning. But despite that, Casas still cranked 13 home runs in 243 plate appearances, however, the slash line dipped to a still solid .241/.337/.462.

With a full offseason to rest, I'm expecting a major bounce-back season from Casas in 2025 and a jump up into the top tier of first basemen for fantasy purposes. He brings elite power to the table with a 13.3% barrel rate and 45.2% hard-hit rate and should be able to return to the .260-.275 range in the AVG department if he bounces back to his pre-2024 levels of contact.

7. Josh Naylor, ARI (Age 27)

The 2024 season was an interesting one for Joah Naylor. After hitting 20 home runs in 2022 and 17 in 2023, Naylor swatted a career-best 31 in 2024, along with a career-best 84 runs scored and 108 RBI. However, Naylor's AVG dropped from .308 to .243, and his OBP from .354 to .320. Given his career track record, the .308 AVG from 2023 appears to be the outlier.

But with that said, I don't think Naylor will hit only .243 again. Naylor has had a zone contact above 85% and overall contact above 77% in each of his six seasons so far and has had a hard-hit rate above 40% in each of his last four seasons.

Even if he doesn't get above 30 homers again, a .270/25 type of season is a realistic expectation to go along with a decent amount of runs and RBI hitting in the middle of a talented Arizona lineup.

8. Spencer Steer, CIN (Age 27)

While a dreadful second half made the overall .225/.319/.402 slash line look uninspiring, Spencer Steer still racked up 20 home runs, 25 steals, 92 RBI, and 74 runs scored in 2024. I'd bank on an even better all-around year in 2025, as his AVG is due for positive regression, and the metrics certainly aren't indicative of a .225 AVG.

Steer has shown a good approach at the plate with better than league average marks in walk, strikeout, and chase rate while also having an 86.6% zone contact rate and 76.9% overall contact rate in 2024. Having Great American Ballpark to hit in half the time helps as well.

Nobody will ever say Steer is the flashiest player around, but another run at 20/20 with an improved AVG is in the cards in 2025. I'd bet on the slash line being closer to his .271/.356/.464 line from 2023. Given where I've seen his 2025 redraft ADP and the talk I've seen about Steer this offseason, I think he's a great value target right now in dynasty leagues.

9. Vinnie Pasquantino, KCR (Age 27)

Unfortunately, we have to wait one more season to get a full season from Vinnie Pasquantino, who was limited to 554 plate appearances in 2024. The production in those plate appearances was decent but Pasquantino has more in the tank to unlock. Pasquantino cranked 19 home runs, drove in 97, and slashed .262/.315/.446.

Pasquantino continues to post elite strikeout (12.8%) and contact (85.5%) with a 91.9% zone contact rate, but his walk rate and OBP have slipped in each of the last two seasons.

But on a positive note, Pasquantino's AVG EV increased from 89.3 mph to 91 mph and his hard-hit rate from 40.3% to 46.5%. His home ballpark isn't doing him any favors, but Pasquantino has a high floor profile as long as he can stay healthy and could push for a .270/25/100 type of season in 2025.

10. Cody Bellinger, NYY (Age 29)

While I have him ranked 10th here at this position, I'm not exactly thrilled about having Bellinger as my starting first baseman. That's not something I have to worry about, as I have no shares, but Bellinger is so hard to figure out in general.

We've seen Bellinger's average fluctuate from .210 to .307 to .266 over the last three seasons, and his QoC metrics have been the worst of his career over the last two seasons. However, he overcomes the underwhelming QoC metrics by hitting the ball at ideal angles.

We could get another 20/10 season from Bellinger and maybe even a return to 25 home runs, given the short porch at Yankee Stadium. But is he going to stick in that 550 plate appearance range where he's been in the last three seasons? Bellinger is talented, but I'll let him be some other manager's headache. Given the perceived value, he's more of a sell than a buy for me in dynasty leagues.

If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.

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