Top 250 Prospects for 2020 Dynasty Leagues

January 26, 2020

Marc Hulet lists his latest top 250 prospects for dynasty leagues for 2020 fantasy baseball. These young minor league players may not make an impact this season but should be watched closely by owners in dynasty and keeper leagues as stash candidates.

It’s hard to believe it’s that time again.

Major League Baseball’s spring training is just weeks away now, which means it's also fantasy baseball season.

This year at RotoBaller, we’re rolling out even more in-depth prospect coverage — starting with a ranking of the Top 250 prospects for dynasty leagues. That’s right. Not 100. Not 150. Not even 200. You have at your disposal the names of the 250 best prospects in baseball for fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.

Prospect Rankings for Dynasty - Our Approach

When ranking prospects, it’s not as simple as picking the players with the loudest tools or with the highest potential ceilings. That’s certainly part of the consideration, but there are many other elements that go into ranking players. Pedigree needs to be weighed against pop-up performances. A player’s track record of success, as well as signs of natural growth, are also things to consider.

Some organizations have a better track record with developing prospects (Hello, Dodgers) while others have not been nearly as successful. Risk also has to be weighed heavily. Generally speaking, good results from a player in Double-A needs to have more weighting over results coming from a player in Low-A ball or Short-Season ball. I've tried to carefully consider all of these factors, as I've combed through these rankings and made adjustments.

It’s not easy to confidently and effectively rank 250 prospects. To ensure you receive the best information possible, we undertook a lengthy process to create this list. We started by breaking down and ranking the best prospects by team (you can access these team lists by going to any player page on RotoBaller). Then those players were combined and ranked by position. From there, the players were separated into two large lists - one for the hitters and one for the pitchers. Those two lists were then merged into the Top 250 prospects.

But we weren’t done there. To ensure we still agreed with all the placements, we deconstructed the list in a backward fashion by then sorting again by position and then by team. If anything looked out of place, adjustments were made (luckily only a few minor tweaks took place at that point). We hope the list before you is instrumental in your dynasty league successes, not only this year, but also lays a solid foundation for the fantasy seasons ahead. We'll be updating this monthly, year-round.

Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Prospects - Top 250

Prospects Rankings Analysis: 1-50

Pitchers

We all know ace pitchers don’t grow on trees, especially in fantasy baseball. There are a handful of arms that are worthy of being top selections, such as Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Justin Verlander. And there are a few more arms right behind them like Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, and Blake Snell. It’s OK to invest in potential top-tier pitching prospects if the price is right, and hope they'll develop into one of the above pitchers. If you wait too long, you’ll find yourself paying an arm and a leg (either in cash or draft slot) for reliable pitching help. But you need to be smart about it. In the Top 250, you’ll find only two pitchers projected to arrive later than 2021 are in the Top 20 arms, so the list puts a lot of value in more advanced pitching prospects at the Double-A level and above than it does in the arms at the lower levels. This helps mitigate some of the risks that come with targeting young pitching.

The Top 8 pitchers on the list should be considered the cream-of-the-crop. MacKenzie Gore is going to be a beast and we have no issues with projecting him to eventually be as valuable as Cole or deGrom. He checks every box with elite stuff, including four pitches that could grade out as plus, as well as athleticism, top make-up, and excellent command/control.

The Tigers’ rebuild is in good hands with both Matt Manning and Casey Mize on the way. The latter prospect is generally graded higher on prospect lists but the former has a better track record in terms of health and could very well produce a higher rate of strikeouts in his prime. For those reasons, we project Manning to be the superior long-term pitcher, although you really can’t go wrong with either.

Grayson Rodriguez over Spencer Howard could be a somewhat controversial choice, but the Orioles’ prospect — although not as far up the organizational rungs — has better size and the potential for more weapons with a deeper repertoire.

Forrest Whitley is likely down the list farther than expected. Don’t get us wrong, we’re not writing him off at all but there are some warning signs that would be dangerous to ignore when ranking him among the elite. The complete meltdown in 2019 is one — whether it was due to injury or a mental lapse… or a combination of both. But there have also been whispers that his maturity is not up-to-snuff and it’s tough to be an elite pitcher for a long time at the MLB level if you’re not 100% committed to your craft.

Among the sleepers, Shane McClanahan is poised for a huge year. He’s in a great system for developing pitchers, he’s left-handed and he can throw into the upper-90s. McClanahan opened the year with 30 walks in his first 48 innings and then took off. In the next 55.1 innings, he walked just eight batters and was almost unhittable before running into a late-season wall in four Double-A starts.

Hitters

The rise of generational talents like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and Wander Franco has been fun to watch but it’s also caused some rankers to overrate loud, toolsy prospects in short-season and rookie ball leagues. There are a lot of risks associated with unrefined prospects and especially those with questionable approaches at the plate and holes in their games. We do make exceptions for this still-cautious nature and you’ll find Marco Luciano ranked favorably at No. 28. The Giants’ prospect has pedigree, receives excellent feedback from professional evaluators and has already shown excellent results with a 32-45 BB-K rate through his first 47 games. He can also hit the ball really hard for his age.

We have Jasson Dominguez ranked based mostly on his reputation. We wouldn’t chase him too heavily, though, before he gets into full-season ball and shows just how advanced and dangerous he really is. Also, he is likely 4 years away from contributing anything at the MLB level, and even in long term dynasty leagues we typically like our assets to produce value more quickly.

Braves outfielder Cristian Pache slots in at 27. Yes, his minor league offensive numbers have not been off-the-charts good but he’s poised for a breakout and should be viewed in a similar lense as a young Francisco Lindor. The Indians’ shortstop originally made his name as a top prospect off of his MLB-caliber defense at a young age. He was aggressively moved through the minors because of this and his bat had to play catch-up. Lindor hit just eight home runs in his first two years in full-season ball (2012-13). His minor league career-high total was 11 in 2014. Lindor then hit 30 home runs in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. Pache split 2019 between Double-A and Triple-A at the age of 20. His line-drive rates show that he hits the ball with authority but he still hits more balls on the ground than we liked to see. But things are getting better. After not hitting a home run in his first two pro seasons, he’s now hit nine and 12 over the past two years while constantly being one of the youngest players in the league. With a little more polish, Pache has a lot to offer as a player beyond his elite defensive value.

Dylan Carlson is being overrated as a prospect in my opinion. Don’t get us wrong, he’s a very good prospect but he’s likely not a consistent 20-20 threat like he showed in 2019. His stolen bases were the result of good base running rather than outstanding speed or athleticism. And he hit .281 in Double-A after sitting around .245 through the first three years of his career. In Carlson, we likely have a 20-30 home run threat with solid on-base numbers and a modest batting average with a handful of steals. Physically, he’s more maxed out than his peers so there is not a huge ceiling left to tap into at this point.

We really like Nick Solak. He has a chance to be an excellent player in on-base leagues and a very good player everywhere else. Along with the walks, Solak also has versatility (a huge plus in fantasy baseball) and power. This is a player that hit 32 home runs in 2019 even with hitting too many balls on the ground.

And don’t sleep on Daulton Varsho who could reach the Majors with eligibility at both catcher and outfield. He’s ranked 39th overall and can hit for average, run, has an advanced approach at the plate, and his power continues to develop.

Prospects Rankings Analysis: 51-100

Hitters

Kristian Robinson is a player who is also loaded with tools but his approach at the plate is far less advanced with more swing-and-miss tendencies than Luciano. The Diamondbacks’ prospect’s struggles with the hit tool have been masked by a heavy reliance on his BABIP. He’s a player we’ll watch very closely in 2020 as this is the year he should give a really good indication on the direction he’s headed: prospect or suspect. The power-speed potential is tantalizing so we’re hoping for the best.

If you like Robinson, consider Orelvis Martinez as a slightly less volatile option, albeit without the potential speed value. He hit .275 with a BABIP slightly below average and produced seven home runs in just 40 games as a 17-year-old playing in his first season in North America. He also makes an impressive amount of contact for such a young power hitter.

Joshua Lowe could soon join bother Nathaniel Lowe on the Rays. The younger brother was actually drafted higher (13th overall in 2016) but struggled early on to transition his raw athleticism to baseball. He got stronger in 2019 and added more power to his game, which makes the swing-and-miss more palatable. He came within two homers of being a 20-30 (HR-SB) guy last year and plays excellent center field defense. Give him some time and he might give you more fantasy value than Dylan Carlson for a much cheaper investment.

Mauricio Dubon isn't a really flashy prospect but he has a clear path right now to a gig at second base for the Giants and enough tools to be interesting. He can definitely hit and showed more power than expected with the juiced balls last year. After a previous high of eight homers, he hit 24 in 2019 and saw his line-drive rate spike, too. Dubon would be interesting even with 12-15 homers to go with a high batting average and double-digit steals.

Pitchers

Jose Urquidy is another player that isn't flashy but he more than held his own at both Triple-A and the Majors in 2019 despite the explosion of offense and power numbers.  He commands four pitches, throws strikes and pitches in front of a good hitting team. Urquidy also generated a higher swinging strike rate than Walker Buehler or Tyler Glasnow, albeit in far fewer innings.

George Kirby and Logan Gilbert were two of my favorite college pitchers in their respective drafts and both ended up with the Mariners. Everyone talks about Kirby's insane control and make him sound like a control-over-stuff pitcher but he actually has a good fastball and the potential for a very good curveball. Don't sleep on his potential.

If Brailyn Marquez can polish a third pitch, watch out. This is a young southpaw that could hit triple digits in 2020 as he continues to mature and grow as a pitcher. He absolutely overpowered left-handed hitters in 2019 (.106 batting average) but his low arm slot leads to concerns about his ability to consistently get right-handed batters out unless he finds a more consistent weapon. Because of this, there is risk of him eventually moving to the bullpen.

If you’re looking for another potential breakout pitcher for 2020, consider Daniel Lynch, Lynch likely would have skyrocketed even further up the Royals' organizational depth chart in 2019 if not for an injury that he's now fully recovered from. He can throw in the mid-90s from the left side with above-average control and three above-average pitches.

Prospects Rankings Analysis: 101-150

Catcher Keibert Ruiz should have a fair bit of name recognition by now but there are other intriguing catchers in this range including Gabriel Moreno, Francisco Alvarez, Luis Campusano, and Ronaldo Hernandez. Moreno is incredibly athletic, has excellent bat-to-ball skills and has seen his power start to really develop. But he's also a player that could end up making a defensive move -- not because he can't handle catching but because his athleticism might be able to handle center field or maybe second base. Alvarez might have the highest offensive ceiling but he also carries a lot of risk as a player who has yet to play above short-season ball. Risk is an easy thing to gloss over when ranking prospects but it should be an important consideration when choosing which dynasty prospects to reward with a roster slot. Campusano is a gifted hitter who is starting to show more power; he's a player that has even more value in on-base leagues given his BB-K of 52-57 in 110 High-A ball games in 2019.

Brent Rooker is a name to tuck away. Barring an unconscious spring training, he's likely ticketed for a return to Triple-A to open up the 2020 season but this is a player that had very, very good numbers in Triple-A in 2019 that weren't fully realized because of injury issues that kept him to 65 games. He has massive power and a willingness to take a walk -- but it comes with massive strikeout numbers. Rooker could be this year's Christian Walker, especially if he can get the strikeouts down into the 25-26% range.

Prospects Rankings Analysis: 151-250

Triston Casas is a player that I went back and forth on and may have ranked a little too low. He could step up his game in 2020 but Boston has also stumbled with developing first base prospects over the years although they to get partial credit for Anthony Rizzo. Casas didn't have a great second half of the year and we haven't seen enough to know if he's going to hit left-handed pitching.

Maybe, just maybe, Brayan Rocchio will take off this year after a bit of a false start last year. I thought he was going to be the "Next Big Thing" in 2019 but was obviously wrong. Rocchio wasn't terrible and held his own in a college-graduate-heavy league at the age of 18 but he didn't really start hitting the ball with authority until August and was a little unlucky with balls in play.

Waiting on Carlos Rodriguez is going to take some patience but he could be worth the wait. This is a kid that played all of 2019 at the age of 18. He's made four stops in his brief two-year career and has hit .300 or better at each spot. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and outstanding speed but needs to tone down his aggressive nature to succeed at higher levels. Once he adds some more muscle, there could be 15-homer potential here to go with 20-30 steals.

Yankees prospects often get overhyped but there are some names to keep an eye on in 2020. I thought Anthony Volpe was a no-brainer as a first-round selection in 2019 so the Yankees were smart to snap him up when he was available with the 30th overall pick. Oswald Peraza is another good, young shortstop prospect and hit well as a teenager in Low-A ball. If he can get stronger and drive the ball with more authority, he becomes even more interesting. T.J. Sikkema was on my list of underrated college starters and he's with the right organization to help him find a way to hit the mid-90s more consistently.

Final Thoughts

One thing to keep in mind: Along with being a source of (initially) cheap talent for your fantasy team, prospects are extremely useful for acquiring established, top-tier players when other teams fall out of contention and decide to do a rebuild. And if you do your research well, you can always find new gems to replace them with — especially if you read Rotoballer.

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