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The term "there is no such thing as a pitching prospect" gets thrown around a lot, sometimes jokingly, but sometimes seriously. I'm here to say that TINSTAAP is a myth.
Yes, pitching prospects are more risky than hitting prospects and we're seeing more and more young arms need some sort of surgery early in their careers, often the one named after that Tommy John fellow. The pitching prospect pool is jam-packed with elite arms right now though, including plenty of 2024 impact arms and low-level breakout candidates.
If you want to see my entire top-150 pitcher prospect rankings, check out my Patreon.
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Dynasty Prospect Pitcher Rankings: Top 10
You can also see our 2024 redraft fantasy baseball prospects rankings for all positions. Age and highest level in parentheses.
1. Jackson Jobe, DET (21/AA)
There's no real consensus top pitching prospect right now and you would probably get five or six different answers depending on who you ask. But for me, I'm going with Jackson Jobe as I believe he has the best combination of ceiling and floor of any pitching prospect in baseball right now.
In 16 starts across three levels last season, Jobe recorded a stellar 2.81 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 32.6% strikeout rate. Oh yes, his walk rate was also a microscopic 2.3%. Jobe was one of only five pitching prospects to have a strikeout rate above 33% and a sub-2% BB rate in at least 40 innings at a level since 2006.
Jackson Jobe’s first Double-A strikeout! pic.twitter.com/nB7hyMgSYh
— Milb Central (@milb_central) September 17, 2023
Jobe is a rare pitching prospect that possesses three plus pitches (fastball, slider, changeup), along with plus command and control as well. That's just not a combination you see very often from any pitching prospect, especially a prospect who was 19 years old for most of the season. Jobe's upside is a frontline arm that can pair with Tarik Skubal to form a dominant 1-2 for a long time.
2. Cade Horton, CHC (22/AA)
I'll admit that I was skeptical of Cade Horton being a top-10 pick back in 2022, but the Cubs look really damn good for taking him seventh overall now. That skepticism was largely due to Horton's shorter track record in college at the University of Oklahoma. In 21 starts last season, Horton posted a 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.7% walk rate, and a 33.5% strikeout rate. On top of that, Horton only allowed seven home runs in 88.1 innings.
With an elite fastball/slider combination along with a serviceable curve and changeup and average to above-average command and control, Horton has the upside to become a frontline starter in the majors and a potential top-15 fantasy arm in time. We should see him debut with the Cubs sometime this summer as well.
3. Paul Skenes, PIT (21/AA)
The most common No. 1 pitching prospect right now would probably be Paul Skenes, and it's easy to see why. Skenes is the most recent No. 1 overall pick coming off an absolutely dominant final collegiate season at LSU where he finished with a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 4.3% walk rate, and a 45.2% strikeout rate.
The arsenal is absolutely nasty with Skenes, who has a plus or better fastball and slider along with a changeup that is at least an above-average offering, maybe even plus. Skenes has also shown solid command and control over his entire arsenal, which gives him a pretty high floor to go along with his astronomical upside. I'm not 100% sure when Skenes will be up this season, but there's no doubt that he'll be up at some point during the 2024 season.
4. Andrew Painter, PHI (20/AA)
If he wasn't currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and not back until very late in 2024 or to start 2025, Andrew Painter would likely be the No. 1 pitching prospect in baseball right now. Actually, he probably wouldn't even be on this list at all as he was in the running to make the Phillies rotation out of spring training in 2023 and would've graduated from prospect status last summer.
Thanks to a dynamic four-pitch mix with three plus or better pitches and above-average to plus command and control, Painter's 2022 performance was truly one for the record books. As a 19-year-old, Painter had a 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 6.2% walk rate, and a 38.7% strikeout rate. The upside is a top-five overall pitcher for fantasy and this is likely the lowest his price tag will ever be in dynasty leagues moving forward.
5. Ricky Tiedemann, TOR (21/AAA)
We go from one risky arm to another in Ricky Tiedemann. I've seen Tiedemann live three times now and there's no doubt that he possesses frontline stuff. Tiedemann's fastball will sit in the mid-90s and touches higher along with a plus or better slider and above-average to plus changeup as well. He's consistently shown the ability to miss bats with all three offerings and currently has a 40.9% strikeout rate in the minors.
Ricky Tiedemann's first strikeout of the night on a slider.
Unfortunately, the velocity reading is not registering on the scoreboard.#NextLevel pic.twitter.com/6nFxhE0GhP
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) September 15, 2023
However, Tiedemann has struggled to remain healthy lately and some command issues have surfaced as well. Maybe those two are related, but Tiedemann really could use a healthy 2023 season. I'd be looking to buy low in dynasty leagues due to the slight price dip over the last 12 months or so, but just keep in mind the elevated risk here.
6. Robby Snelling, SDP (20/AA)
For me, Robby Snelling is the most underrated pitching prospect on this list. In his first professional season after being selected 39th overall in the 2022 draft, Snelling recorded an exceptional 1.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 8.2% walk rate, and a 28.4% strikeout rate. But yet, I still see him excluded from some top-10 pitching prospect rankings, which is a big mistake in my eyes.
Snelling attacks hitters with a three-pitch mix, highlighted by a plus fastball/slider combination, and has shown above-average command and control as well. While Snelling might not possess quite the same level of upside as the five names above him, he projects as a high-end No. 2 starter and has a higher floor than most pitching prospects with his age and experience level. If you're looking for an elite pitching prospect with a lower price tag than the five names above, Snelling is your guy.
7. Hurston Waldrep, ATL (22/AAA)
A big riser since the 2023 draft, Hurston Waldrep is now on the cusp of debuting with Atlanta early this season. The 24th overall pick made eight starts after the draft last season and made it up to Triple-A, finishing with a 1.53 ERA and 33.3% strikeout rate. But unfortunately, Waldrep also walked 13% of the batters he faced.
The higher walk rate was the main concern surrounding Waldrep during draft season and remains the main concern moving forward. Waldrep has front line stuff, headlined by a plus or better fastball and absolutely nasty splitter, but he's going to need to throw more strikes and do a better job of limiting the free passes.
8. Jacob Misiorowski, MIL (21/AA)
The 6-foot-7 Jacob Misiorowski is fairly similar to Waldrep with his immense upside but having a bit of a walk issue. In his first full professional season last year, Misiorowski posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 35% strikeout rate, but a 13.4% walk rate tagged along for the ride.
BOT 5️⃣ | The first of many! Congratulations to Jacob Misiorowski on his first career 1️⃣0️⃣ strikeout game!
🦪: 1 | 🪓: 0
📻 https://t.co/V2DhTuVY10
📺 @ballylivenow, https://t.co/5dYqzkzNIs#ShuckYeah #Brewers pic.twitter.com/vLS6hdWYiy— Biloxi Shuckers (@BiloxiShuckers) August 16, 2023
With three plus or better offerings, including an elite fastball, the sky is the limit for Misiorowski, especially in a great pitching development organization like Milwaukee. If he's able to harness his control moving forward, Misiorowski is going to join Freddy Peralta atop Milwaukee's rotation and form a formidable 1-2 punch.
9. Noble Meyer, MIA (19/A)
Since many of the names above him will graduate from prospect status this year, it wouldn't shock me if Noble Meyer was the new No. 1 overall pitching prospect by this time next year. After being selected 10th overall in the 2023 draft, Meyer received five starts between the Complex Level and Lo-A, and will likely spend most of 2024 in Lo-A and Hi-A this season.
Meyer is more advanced than most pitchers his age and has plenty of projection left on his 6-foot-5 frame to add more bulk and hopefully subsequent velocity. If he does, that will likely push his fastball into double-plus range to pair with a double-plus slider. He's also shown a feel for a decent changeup with fade, and is in a great organization for changeup development. Get ready for Meyer's stock to skyrocket in 2024.
10. Dylan Lesko, SDP (20/A+)
This spot could go several different directions, but I'm going with Dylan Lesko and his borderline frontline upside. Lesko's professional career got off to a delayed start as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, but he made 12 starts in 2023, reaching Double-A at the end of the season.
The reason why Lesko is so high in these rankings, and higher for me than most others in the industry, is the fact that we could be looking at two double-plus offerings in his fastball and changeup, along with an above-average breaking ball as well. Lesko will need to refine his command for that to happen, but the ingredients are here for Lesko to make a major jump up prospect rankings this season.
The Rest of the Top 25 Prospects
11. Noah Schultz, CHW
12. Christian Scott, NYM
13. Brock Porter, TEX
14. Chase Petty, CIN
15. Kyle Harrison, SFG
16. Drew Thorpe, SDP
17. Rhett Lowder, CIN
18. Tink Hence, STL
19. AJ Smith-Shawver, ATL
20. Mason Miller, OAK
21. Chase Hampton, NYY
22. Daniel Espino, CLE
23. Max Meyer, MIA
24. Mick Abel, PHI
25. Jared Jones, PIT
If you enjoyed these rankings and want to see additional rankings, analysis, and more, check out Eric's Toolshed Fantasy Patreon.
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