RADIO
It's playoff time starting tonight! Because the NHL is making this week full of four-game slates, we have decided at RotoBaller to provide you with some NHL DFS content -- playoff-style!
This article is my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Wednesday, May 4th, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 5/4/22
We have a four-game slate tonight. We have games starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, 7:30 p.m. Eastern, 9:30 p.m. Eastern, and 10:00 p.m. Eastern. The last few weeks have been tougher with anticipating who will play or not, whether particular players will return from an injury, etc. Playoff hockey is a lot more simple to anticipate. Typically teams roll with their top goalie. The only way a guy is not playing, in general, is if they are significantly injured. There aren't going to be random scratches in the playoffs you won't expect. Lastly, scoring is often lower with games being tighter. As such, for cash games, we are going to want to target those players that can fill the stat sheet across the board.
If you read my article on Monday, you aren't going to see drastic changes in analysis. We are only one game in, the teams are playing each other in the same location, and odds and totals are largely the same as they were on Monday.
NHL DFS Goalies
Mike Smith - DK $8.4K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
Just like on Monday, Edmonton is the largest favorite on the slate. Smith played really well down the stretch for Edmonton but did not have a good game against Los Angeles. This is a must-win game at home for Edmonton and I expect him to have a better showing. With him not having a good game and now being more expensive than he was on Monday, he could turn out to be somewhat contrarian. I would imagine Husso and Raanta would be somewhat popular as they are less expensive and had good games. I also like Vasilevskiy in another must-win type of a game, and less expensive than Smith too.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Husso (DK $7.6K || FD $7.4K), Vasilevskiy (DK $7.7K || FD $7.8K), Raanta (DK $8.0K || FD $7.9K), Quick (DK $7.4K || FD $7.1K).
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall into both camps.
Connor McDavid- DK $9.0K || FD $10.1K
Last slate I touted Auston Matthews and he went on to have two goals, one assist, and six shots on goal. On this slate I am going with the narrative that Tampa Bay has to win and as such I am mostly going to fade Montreal. I also am going with the narrative that Edmonton has to win too. We have not seen a big game from Connor McDavid in the playoffs. This is a big one if Edmonton doesn't want to get bounced in the first round. At home with all the pressure, can the superstar but the team on his back? I am going to roster McDavid and find out.
Steven Stamkos - DK $8.0K || FD $8.5K (Winger on FanDuel)
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
I liked Stamkos as a cash game option last time and I like him even more in a spot in which I think Toronto needs to have a big game. He had a quiet game last time out with no points and just two shots on goal. This is someone that had over 100 points and 42 goals on the season. After having a quiet game, I am hoping to lock him in for a better game.
Anze Kopitar - DK $5.0K || FD $6.3K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
Anze Kopitar is another player I like as a cheap cash game option on this slate. He does not have the ceiling as others, 20 fantasy points seem to be his upper limit, but he doesn't get a lot of zeros and has a decent floor on the slate. Additionally, Los Angeles is playing with some confidence. I would not roster him with Mike Smith but would consider if I played a different goalie.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Matthews (DK $9.4K || FD $10.3K - GPP only), Draisaitl (DK $8.2K || FD $10.0K), Bergeron (DK $6.5K || FD $7.9K), Hartman (DK $5.4K || FD $6.6K), Danault (DK $4.3K || FD $5.7K), Thomas (DK $4.2K || FD $5.8K), O'Reilly (DK $4.1K || FD $5.9K), Trocheck (DK $3.6K || FD $5.3K),
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully score.
Nikita Kucherov- DK $8.2K || FD $9.6K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
I like Nikita Kucherov in a spend-up spot in a potential bounce-back game for Tampa Bay. Kucherov averaged 1.44 points per game and 3.29 shots on goal per game. He is a superstar and after having a quiet game, I think he comes back in a big way tonight.
Kevin Fiala - DK $5.8K || FD $7.3K
Opponent - Saint Louis Blues
Fiala provides a good value on DraftKings. I liked him a lot on Monday and I am going to go back to the well in hopes that the Wild play better. Fiala had 85 points in 82 games and averaged 3.2 shots on goal per game.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Kaprizov (DK $8.0K || FD $9.7K), Marner (DK $7.8K || FD $9.3K), Pastrnak (DK $7.5K || FD $8.8K), Tarasenko (DK $6.3K || FD $7.8K), Point (DK $5.4K || FD $6.9K - C on FD), Kempe (DK $4.8K || FD $6.4K), Buchnevich (DK $4.5K || FD $6.5K), Perron (DK $4.4K || FD $6.3K), Zuccarello (DK $4.2K || FD $7.2K), Kyrou (DK $4.1K || FD $6.7K), Jarvis (DK $3.4K || FD $4.7K - C on FD)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Victor Hedman - DK $6.9K || FD $7.5K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
I am going back to the well with Victor Hedman. His price dropped on DraftKings and increased on FanDuel. Even in an off game, he shoots enough on goal and blocks enough shots that he still finds ways to have a really solid floor. He has the highest floor and highest upside of defenders on the slate.
Evan Bouchard - DK $4.7K || FD $5.0K
Opponent - Los Angeles Kings
Evan Bouchard's price has dropped since Monday and I still love the spot he is in tonight. As a said last time: Bouchard averages 2.53 shots per game and 1.38 blocked shots per game. He rarely gets you a zero and he has 20+ fantasy point upside each slate.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Nurse (DK $6.0K || FD $5.8K), McAvoy (DK $4.6K || FD $6.2K), Faulk (DK $4.3K || FD $4.9K), Durzi (DK $4.1K || FD $5.2K), Spurgeon (DK $3.8K || FD $5.5K), Krug (DK $4.0K || FD $5.0K), McDonagh (DK $3.1K || FD $4.5K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
On a four-game slate, it is important to find good leverage points. There is going to be a chalk/optimal type of a build, you will want to try to get different from that. Edmonton is the strongest favorite and has the highest implied total on the slate. I could see Edmonton + Smith being popular, and if they are, I would get away from that combination as much as possible.
Here are some stacks I like:
Tampa Bay 1/PP1: Tampa Bay is implied for 3.2 goals (4th highest) and they are an underdog on the slate. This is a bounce-back spot for Tampa Bay. I have a difficult time believing they will go down 0-2 easily and I expect to see some goals scored. I imagine eyes will be on the teams that played well last time and the ownership won't be what it should be on Tampa Bay.
Los Angeles 2: Edmonton allows the most shots on goal out of the teams playing while Los Angeles shoots the second-most shots on goal of the teams playing.
Edmonton PP1: Los Angeles has the No. 22 penalty kill in the league. The issue is they are among the lowest in the league in penalties committed.
Minnesota 2: Minnesota outplayed Saint Louis in 5 on 5 play. Their second line has been one of the most productive even-strength lines in the league. If everyone point chases with Saint Louis, I would love the have the other side with a value stack in Minnesota 2.
