Tight End Zach Ertz, the Post-Hype Sleeper of 2015

2014 was a rough year for breakout tight ends.  Zach Ertz, Jordan Cameron, Charles Clay, Tyler Eifert, Jordan Reed, Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph, Dennis Pitta, Ladarius Green and more failed to reach their preseason expectations, whether it was due to poor play, injury, or a lack of talent around them. Ertz himself is an interesting case. Chip Kelly failed to give him the playing time that was required for him to become a high end TE1. However, he did have some big games regardless, and his value was directly correlated to his snap count.

Profile

Ertz is a huge target for any quarterback, listed at 6’5 and 250 pounds. That’s 2 inches taller than the average tight end and on par with the weight.  What sets him apart from the norm is his speed and athleticism.  He ran a 4.62 forty to go along with a 35 ½’ vertical leap (2nd among TE’s since 2013).  To say the least, Ertz can move for his massive frame. He came out of Stanford in 2013 as the 1A tight end prospect to Tyler Eifert.  While his blocking was (and still is) very suspect, his receiving skills were borderline unmatched at the position.  Once Coby Fleener left Stanford for the pros, Ertz became a complete matchup nightmare in college football. 

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The Stats 

Ertz finished his only year as a starting college tight end with a line of 69-898-6, good for the most receiving yards as a tight end in Division I-A that year.  His rookie year with the Eagles, he finished with a promising line of 36-469-4, however a lot of his damage came against Arizona (5-68-2), who was historically bad against tight ends in 2013.  Ertz played only roughly 40% of his teams offensive snaps, and that number was expected to increase in 2014.

2014 started off strong, he had a 3-77-1 against the Jaguars (with a huge catch down the seam showing off his hops), and then 4-86 line against the Colts.  It went downhill for a while from there as he failed to top 50 yards for 7 straight weeks, and only did it three times after that.  He wasn’t receiving enough playing time once again, seeing just above 50% of the team's offensive snaps.  He finished with an underwhelming, but once again promising line of 58-702-3 for the year.

The Analysis

It’s quite clear that the primary reason that Ertz isn’t receiving playing time is his limited blocking ability.  It’s also quite clear that Chip Kelly prefers outside receivers that can handle their assignments, as evidence by the heavy usage of Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper over Ertz and Huff consistently.  Brent Celek saw 75% of the team’s snaps, thanks in part due to his well above average run blocking (+4.3 per PFF).  Even though Celek wasn’t as much of a downfield weapon for the Eagles, his trench work was tremendous at times.  Ertz needs to improve dramatically as a blocker both on the line and downfield in order to gain more snaps.  Just look at this GIF (courtesy of r/eagles):

That's Zach Ertz running blindly ahead of McCoy.

There have been promising reports coming out of minicamp that the Eagles are impressed at Ertz’s improvement as a blocker, however the proof will come in training camp and preseason.  It’s something to keep an eye on for those looking to draft a tight end late.

When Ertz was used heavily, his stats showed that.  In the 5 games in which Ertz played at least 60% of the offensive snaps, he finished with a line of 30-377-1. This counts his massive game of 15-115 against the Redskins (I don’t want to consider this an anomaly because he was truly dominant all game).  Over a 16 game season, this totals to 96-1206-4.  While he certainly won’t reach those numbers, the potential is there for him to come close to 1000 yards if his snap count comes up to around 75% instead of 50%. a high probability.  He ranked 5th in yards per pass route run among tight ends, however his target totals were significantly lower than those that were ahead of him. Combine that with the 3rd highest catch percentage on deep balls (2nd in targets and receptions among tight ends), and it’s proof that Ertz is a strong downfield weapon when given the opportunity, which is huge for fantasy tight ends.

The Eagles are completely remade from last year.  Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy are gone, and DeMarco Murray and Nelson Agholor are in.  The loss of Maclin means good news for Ertz in both the red zone and in terms of targets, however the inclusion of Murray does damper that red zone promise slightly.  I expect a lot of Maclins targets to be balanced between Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor, while the run game numbers should also increase but Ertz should still be able to find a role as both an inline and move tight end.  Last year, Ertz played roughly half of his snaps in the slot, thanks in part to Jordan Matthews heavy usage in the same area.  His total number of 188 snaps in that position may see a slight tick, but the Eagles seem inclined to keep Matthews in a position where he had continued success.  The increase in usage for Ertz is going to have to be inline, either in 2 TE sets or at the expense of Brent Celek.  Both of these are strong possibilities to happen, but high risk in terms of fantasy, as there has been nothing to indicate Ertz is expected to receive a stronger role. 

Ertz was expected to light it up in the red zone throughout his career, but that just hasn’t happened yet. What’s interesting is he was actually 4th in the team in targets with 11 in the red zone, however he caught only 3 passes for 1 touchdown.  Brent Celek did have 9 targets, and caught 3 also for one touchdown.  Some numbers to specifically look at are Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper’s 26 total targets.  Cooper was absolutely abysmal this past year and should see a significant downtick in targets all over the field.  I expect DeMarco Murray to see a considerable amount of those looks as carries, but Ertz’s numbers should also increase, and increase significantly if he takes some of Celek’s targets.  That number could hover in the 18-20 target range next year, which could increase his TD total by 2-4 next year. Brent Celek has never been more than an above average red zone threat, so Ertz is likely to see an uptick in usage there.

The Verdict 

When given playing time, Ertz is a proven stud as a pass catcher.  If he’s able to win snaps by improving his blocking, it’s a near lock that he will become a top 10, if not top 5 fantasy tight end immediately due to it being such a weak position currently.  It’s a heavy gamble, but those that do their research during training camp and the preseason are the ones that will probably guess right on Ertz.  With the Eagles looking to becoming even more run heavy, Ertz needs to make a name for himself quickly.

If Ertz does look strong in the preseason as a blocker, I’d expect his line to hover in the 75-950-7 area, but if he continues to struggle, I see him finishing roughly 60-700-4.  Currently, I do expect Ertz to make the leap as reports have been promising out of camp.  I’d draft him as a TE1 with clear upside.  He’s currently going as the #7 TE in fantasy drafts, which is probably in line with where he should be right now.  There are players with a lot more risk just below him such as, Jordan Cameron, Owen Daniels and Josh Hill.  I would be more than confident with taking him in the 7th round, if not the late 6th, while also drafting someone like Tyler Eifert or Austin Seferian-Jenkins in the 12-15 rounds as potential insurance.

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