Second-Year Breakouts for 2024-25 Fantasy Basketball

October 1, 2024

Thunder Dan Palyo identifies some of top sophomore NBA players to draft this year in 2024-2025 Fantasy Basketball leagues.

Drafting rookie players in redraft leagues doesn't usually pay off unless they are true superstars like Victor Wembanyama. However, going after players in their second season who are ready to take on bigger roles and make a bigger impact in the box score is a very useful strategy.

We want to target players in good situations to improve their rookie seasons - a defined role with meaningful minutes.

You won't find Wemby in this piece because if you don't have the first or second pick in your drafts, you're simply not going to be drafting him this season. But here are the rest of the super sophomores who could have big fantasy impacts this season.

Chet Holmgren, PF/C - Oklahoma City Thunder

Yahoo ADP: 16

Chet is the only player here who is not from the 2023 draft as he was taken by the Thunder in 2022 but missed his entire first season with an injury. So while this is his third year removed from playing at Gonzaga, he's still technically just a second-year player and only 22 years old.

Holmgren was fantastic as a rookie, playing in all 82 games and proving that durability concerns with him due to his slight frame were exaggerated. He finished 20th in per-game value with averages of 16.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2.3 blocks per game. He shot 53% from the floor and 79% from the free-throw line while adding 1.6 three-pointers per contest.

Sun’s out, guns out for Chet Holmgren. He’s five pounds heavier than last year. Clear improvement in arm development and definition. #Thunder pic.twitter.com/s99HiWCOd7

— Cliff Brunt (@CliffBruntAP) September 30, 2024

Chet's game is built for 9-cat as steals are really his only weak category. The Thunder did bring Isaiah Hartenstein to play center this season, which should bump Chet to power forward, however, I don't really view that as a bad thing for his game. He could see a dip in rebounds, but I think he could increase his scoring while taking more threes and even see an increase in assists and blocks. OKC can use Hartenstein to guard opposing centers while Holmgren can continue to block shots as a help-side defender.

Chet will still play some center, too, when the Thunder want to play smaller but not having to bang with the big guys in the paint constantly may help him stay healthy, and playing away from the basket is going to force him to continue to develop his offensive arsenal and ball-handling skills.

We've seen Evan Mobley thrive as a 7-footer playing the four alongside Jarrett Allen. And OKC's size is going to give teams major problems when they roll out the twin towers.

Chet is a super safe pick in the second round who still has the upside to finish inside the top 12. I'm higher on him than a lot of others who are more concerned about Hartenstein's arrival.

Dereck Lively II, C - Dallas Mavericks

Yahoo ADP: 110

Lively started 42 games for the Mavericks in his rookie season and finished the year in a timeshare at center with Daniel Gafford, who was acquired by Dallas from Washington midseason.

Despite playing just 23.5 minutes per game, Lively averaged nine points, seven boards, and 1.4 blocks while shooting an absurd 74.7% from the floor. He struggled with free throws, hitting just 51% from the line but on only 1.5 attempts per game so he's not someone who forces you into punting that category.

The biggest question surrounding Lively this season will be playing time as Gafford is still there to compete for center minutes and P.J. Washington is capable of sliding over to play small-ball center if the Mavericks want to go really small, too.

His per-minute numbers are solid and there's certainly room for improvement offensively, but Lively is still just a low-usage finisher and rim protector who's never going to contribute in threes or assists. He makes for a nice low-risk pick at his current ADP, but his upside is capped as long as he continues to be in a platoon with Gafford.

Brandin Podziemski, SG - Golden State Warriors

Yahoo ADP: 123

Podziemski got a chance to get some extended run last year as the Warriors dealt with injuries constantly and he flashed a nice fantasy skill set when given the opportunity. Podz finished the year with 9.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists in 26 minutes per game. He added 1.2 threes and 1.0 combined steals/blocks but also shot just 63% from the stripe.

It's certainly not a traditional stat line from a shooting guard. He was a plus rebounder for his size and showed that he could help run the offense by acting as a facilitator. He also flashed a nice stroke from behind the arc by connecting on 38.5% of his three-pointers. But what is his role on this team going to be this season?

Brandin Podziemski plays (preseason) basketball in 5 days

Here are 5 fun facts from Podz’s rookie season ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/LbERNq8p3A

— PodzMuse (@PodzMuse) September 30, 2024

He's projected to start alongside Stephen Curry, however, I'm not sure that it really matters if he starts or not. As long as we are looking at 25-30 minutes a night for Podziemski, I think he's a great pick in the late rounds. With Klay Thompson gone, the Warriors need shooting on the wings and for others to chip in to score the basketball. Jonathan Kuminga will surely take more shots as will Andrew Wiggins and Buddy Hield, but De'Anthony Melton is not a scorer and neither is Draymond Green.

And while an uptick in scoring will help Podziemski's overall output, it's his strong rebounding and passing that makes him a nice asset. He could end up being the glue guy that holds this Warriors team together this season, whether he starts or takes on a sixth-man role.

Amen Thompson, SG/SF - Houston Rockets

Yahoo ADP: 125

Thompson is dripping with athleticism and when he had a chance to show out late in the year last season, he posted some eye-popping numbers. He ended up starting 23 games in February, March, and April and posted 13.5 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.5 blocks on 58% shooting from the field.

Hyped for Amen Thompson coming into season 2 “DIFFERENT” 🔥 pic.twitter.com/RMKuvUYO0O

— Overtime Elite (@OvertimeElite) September 30, 2024

Thompson's game is still raw, but I'm not sure how Houston keeps him off the court in favor of Dillon Brooks or others. The rotation could be messy to start the season as the Rockets try to find minutes for Cam Whitmore, Tari Eason, and rookie Reed Sheppard, but the cream should rise to the top and Thompson is simply one of the five best players on this team.

They don't need Thompson to play point guard with Fred VanVleet entrenched as the starter there, but Thompson has the size to play on the wing. While he still has his warts for 9-cat (no threes, poor FT%), Thompson has such a high ceiling. Wing players who can average close to ten rebounds a game with solid defensive stats simply come around that often.

Thompson is an easy pick late in the draft. Invest in his talent and hold onto him until we see if Houston makes a trade or finds a way to get him more playing time.

Trayce Jackson-Davis, PF/C - Golden State Warriors

Yahoo ADP: 127

Another Warrior here with Jackson-Davis set to follow up on a solid rookie campaign and reprise his role as the first big man off the bench for Steve Kerr. Draymond Green is likely to start at center but is badly undersized at just 6-foot-7 while TJD stands at 6-foot-9 with a longer frame.

Jackson-Davis started 16 games last year for the Warriors and posted 11.3 points, 7.6 boards, and 1.7 blocks on 69% shooting in 25 minutes per game. His per-36 numbers last year were eye-opening, 17.2 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.4 blocks.

Even if he's coming off the bench behind Draymond, TJD should be looking at a 20 to 25-minute role this year. He's so efficient while on the floor that even a bench role with steady minutes is going to put him in play for standard leagues. And if Draymond gets himself into trouble again with suspensions, then Jackson-Davis could step into a larger role and push for top 75 value in 9-cat.

Jaime Jaquez Jr., SF- Miami Heat

Yahoo ADP: 133

Jacquez Jr. was a major piece of Miami's rotation in his rookie season as the Heat battled injuries to several starters during the season. He started 20 games for the Heat and appeared in 75 games total, finishing with averages of 12 points, 3.8 boards, 2.6 assists, 1.0 steals, and 0.9 threes in 28 minutes per game.

Still think about this bucket by Jaime Jaquez Jr. over LeBron James from time to time! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/A4xjsMpIZx

— Heat Lead 🔥 (@HeatLead) July 24, 2024

Those numbers don't jump off the page as uber-impressive, but let's also consider that Jaquez Jr. played with an efficiency that is unlike most rookies. He shot 49% from the floor and 81% from the free throw line while averaging only 1.5 turnovers.

Jaime's game is smooth and easy. He didn't look like a rookie out there. His offensive game is polished and he was able to give Miami solid minutes at either shooting guard or small forward. He's in line to be the sixth man to start the season, and I think a 25 to 28-minute role is good enough for him to be able to produce some nice "end-off-the-bench" stats for your team.

And knowing how many games Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro have missed in the past, there's a good chance we see Jaquez get thrust into a bigger role at times this season.

Ausar Thompson, SG/SF/PF - Detroit Pistons

Yahoo ADP: 144

The "other Thompson brother" had a chance to contribute sooner than his brother, but had an even rookie season as his coach constantly toyed with his minutes and role in Detroit.

Ausar, like Amen, has an incredible ability to rebound the basketball. His per-36-minute numbers were 9.1 boards, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks last year. However, he only played 25 minutes per game and started just 38 contests for the Pistons.

Detroit's roster is a bit of a mess, but Thompson is the favorite to start at small forward this season and has a new coach in J.B. Bickerstaff who built the Cleveland Cavaliers into a defensive stalwart during his time there. Bickerstaff loves guys who can defend and rebound and is much more likely to give Thompson the minutes he needs to be productive.

His offensive game is even more raw than his brother's, so again there are some limitations to his contributions. But at this late in the draft, you're not likely to find another player with as much upside as Thompson. He's an athletic freak and is going to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis if he gets the minutes.

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