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Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Wild Card Weekend of the 2024 NFL season. His RB lineups advice for Wild Card Weekend fantasy football start/sit decisions.
If you thought your fantasy football season was over, think again. We are talking playoffs, which means fantasy managers looking for the edge in the playoff contests have come to the right place.
The running back position is particularly challenging this week as the teams that punched their tickets to the dance have done a great job limiting fantasy production to the running back position this season. A closer look at the playoff picture shows that 11 of the 14 teams in the field rank inside the top 13 in terms of fantasy points against.
Try not to let that scare you, as RotoBaller is here to help fantasy football managers make those tough lineup decisions with our Wild Card Weekend starts and sits at the running back position.
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Wild Card Weekend Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Saquon Barkley - RB, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
When in doubt, just give the ball to Saquon Barkley. After all, it's worked for the Eagles all season as Barkley finished as the RB1 in fantasy (17-week season), producing 355.3 fantasy points and averaging 22.2 per contest.
You plug that kind of production into your lineup regardless of the circumstances. Now saying that, the Packers are not among those 11 teams that rank in the top 13 in defending fantasy backs. Green Bay has allowed 22.56 fantasy points per game this season, the 13th most.
Saquon Barkley 🤝 NFL 2k Club 🔥 pic.twitter.com/XjbYP4KnqM
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) January 6, 2025
Only the Buffalo Bills have allowed more fantasy points among the playoff teams than the Packers have. Barkley enters Wild Card Weekend coming off career highs with 2,005 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns, and 5.8 yards per carry. All numbers could easily have been higher if he had played Week 18. Sorry, Packers fans, you're getting a fresh Barkley this week.
This is the season's second meeting between Barkley and the Packers defensive unit. In Week 1, Barkley scored three touchdowns and averaged 4.5 yards per carry on his way to 109 rushing yards in Brazil.
Barkley's production would have been even better this season had it not been for Jalen Hurts limiting Barkley to 41.5% of the team's carries inside the 5-yard line. Barkley's explosive run rate of 7.2% trailed only Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs among backs with at least 160 carries this season -- meanwhile, no back topped Barkley in terms of rushing yards on runs that went beyond 15 yards.
Green Bay will need to find a way to get to Barkley before he gets going, as he also averaged 3.55 yards before contact per attempt this season behind the Eagles offensive line.
Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Washington Commanders
Only James Conner forced more missed tackles per attempt this season than Bucky Irving of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. His 0.26 missed tackles forced per attempt led to 54 missed tackles, 626 yards after contact, and 3.02 yards after contact per attempt (NFL best). Those 626 rushing after contact accounted for 55.8% of Irving's rushing total this season.
Not only was Irving the top rookie back from this past year's draft class, but an argument could be made that he's earned the reputation of an elite back, regardless of his years of service. He's undoubtedly turned Rachaad White into an afterthought.
Since Week 6, Irving has averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game, rushing for 875 yards and seven rushing touchdowns. He's also been a factor in the passing game, with 346 receiving yards on 40 receptions.
Washington is the third-most favorable matchup for the running back position this week. The Commanders have allowed 2,322 total yards and 17 touchdowns to backs this season, 16 of which were courtesy of the run game.
Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings
At first, the matchup doesn't look great. Minnesota had allowed 19.71 fantasy points per game throughout the season, the ninth fewest. However, during the four weeks between Week 14 and Week 17, Minnesota allowed 25.35 fantasy points per game, the eighth most.
Look, this was the next-best matchup available. There's no way you are starting Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, or Audric Estime, even in a favorable matchup against Buffalo.
In fantasy football, we are all about touchdowns, and few do it better than Kyren Williams, who has hit paydirt 31 times over the last two seasons. Williams not only found his way into the end zone 16 times this season, but he also rushed for 1,299, averaging 4.11 yards per carry, forcing 42 missed tackles, and accounting for 606 yards after contact.
We now have two years of production from Williams: those 31 touchdowns, the 2,443 rushing yards, and an average of 17.6 fantasy points per game. Now is not the time for fantasy managers to bet against Williams.
Kyren Williams' last two fantasy seasons:
📈 31 total TDs
📈 17.65 fantasy PPG
📈 Back-to-back 1,000+ rushing yard seasons pic.twitter.com/VQdUk7mpKO— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) January 3, 2025
Wild Card Weekend Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
I mentioned that the running back position is not great for fantasy football matchups during these playoffs. Najee Harris is in an uphill battle facing the Baltimore Ravens again. Harris has seen 31 opportunities in two contests against the Ravens defense this season. He has produced 135 total yards with those opportunities and averaged 8.75 fantasy points per game.
Harris played all 17 games this season and churned out 1,043 yards on the ground on 263 carries, adding 283 yards on 36 receptions. As for the Ravens, they allowed just 80.1 rushing yards per game this season and 77 rushing yards per game over their final three outings.
One area in which the Steelers should find a measure of success is the passing game, as the Ravens have allowed 674 receiving yards to opposing backs this season, the fourth most. Despite the receiving yardage yielded, Baltimore only allowed 19.29 fantasy points per game, the seventh fewest in 2024.
Aaron Jones- RB, Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams have been good against opposing backs throughout the season but not great. Their 21.22 fantasy points surrendered are the 13th fewest, as they have allowed 1,765 rushing yards and 582 receiving yards to the position this season.
So, why is Jones on the sit list? From Week 14 through Week 17, Los Angeles allowed just 77 rushing yards per game and 113 total receiving yards to the position. It also did not allow a back to register a touchdown over that four-week window, limiting the position to 14.28 fantasy points. Only the Eagles and Buccaneers allowed fewer fantasy points over that period. In Week 18, Zach Charbonnet of the Seahawks was held under 60 total yards.
J.K. Dobbins - RB, Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
J.K. Dobbins is a great story. Dobbins should be considered the front-runner for the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year Award after rushing for 905 yards and breaking 1,000 total yards thanks to his 153 yards receiving on 32 receptions this season.
Dobbins is likely to earn a majority of the opportunities once again this week against the Texans, considering that the Chargers just signed Ezekiel Elliott, meaning the depth chart isn't looking great.
As far as fantasy is concerned, only the Chiefs and the Eagles allowed fewer fantasy points to the running back position this season than the Texans' 18.72. Fantasy points will be tough to come by on the ground, as the Texans allowed just 10 total touchdowns to the position. Meanwhile, they allowed 31 receiving touchdowns, which may suit Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey just fine.
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