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Matt's running back (RB) fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 1 of 2025. His RB lineups advice for Week 1 fantasy football start/sit decisions.
It's time once again to discuss fantasy football starts and sits. Early on in the season, strange things are certain to occur. What we thought made sense during fantasy football drafts will appear to be fictional.
With Week 1 on the horizon, it is time to sift through all the preseason information we gathered, combine it with what we remember from the 2024 season, and compile some sort of imagery as to what is likely to happen in the opening week.
Luckily, here at RotoBaller, we have done all that and are happy to kick off the 2025 season with our Week 1 running backs starts and sits.
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Week 1 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Only nine players produced more 20-plus fantasy performances last season than Hubbard's six. All nine players were selected within the top 24 picks of your recent fantasy football draft; meanwhile, Hubbard likely saw 15 other running backs selected ahead of him. Talk about getting no respect. Hubbard finished as the RB12 last season and averaged 16.1 fantasy points per game, and we are still questioning whether or not we should be starting him.
Most games over 20.0 Fantasy Points (PPR)
[RB/WR/TEs, 2024]10 - Bijan Robinson
9 - Ja'Marr Chase
8 - Derrick Henry, De'Von Achane, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jefferson
7 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley
6 - Brian Thomas, Chuba Hubbard 👀 , George Kittle, Joe… pic.twitter.com/9VNjE3iT3N
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) August 11, 2025
Hubbard is a no-doubter, a Week 1 must-start option, and could find himself in the running as the overall RB1 this week as the Panthers take on the Jaguars. In 2024, the Jaguars allowed 1,848 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground to the running back position, leading to 23.44 fantasy points against per game -- the sixth-most. If Jacksonville hasn't improved on defense the way they hope, they could be in for a long day, as Hubbard's 337 explosive yards were seventh in the NFL a season ago, while his 676 yards after contact ranked sixth among backs.
Hubbard will likely give way to Rico Dowdle at times, capping his fantasy ceiling to a degree, but the matchup is too good to pass up. If you follow the money, Dowdle appears to be nothing more than an affordable backup as the Panthers look to limit Hubbard's load as he returns from calf and knee injuries that shut his 2024 season down early.
Alvin Kamara - RB, New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals
Kamara may be the only offensive option the New Orleans Saints have this week. Truthfully, I'm not sure Spencer Rattler will have the time he needs to locate targets down the field, instead opting to dink and dunk to move the ball.
In limited action with Rattler under center, Kamara caught 17 passes. Last season, the Arizona Cardinals' defense was 21st in receptions allowed to running backs (79) and 25th in receiving yards allowed (649). Arizona finished 28th in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs (23.72), only beating out the Panthers, New York Giants, and San Francisco 49ers.
Last season, only Henry, Robinson, Gibbs, and Barkley averaged more fantasy points per game than Kamara's 19.0. Before the start of Week 15, Kamara was second only to Barkley on a points-per-game basis. In his eight-year career, his worst PPR finish was an RB13 performance in 2022, and he has posted at least 1,100 yards from scrimmage every season.
Ashton Jeanty - RB, Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Last season, the New England Patriots surrendered 1,972 yards on the ground to opposing backs, the third-most. In Jeanty's final season at Boise State, the Raiders' featured back ran for 2,601 yards, averaging 7.0 yards per carry and scoring 29 times on the ground. I'm not saying Jeanty goes off for 200 yards in his regular-season debut; I'm just saying the matchup is favorable, considering the Patriots also allowed 22.82 fantasy points per game last season.
Jeanty looks to be a strong volume play this week, and every week for that matter, considering the depth chart behind the rookie reads as Raheem Mostert, Zamir White, and Dylan Laube. While effective when needed, Mostert isn't the same back he once was, and White fell out of the graces of fantasy managers after an Armageddon-esque 2024 fantasy campaign. Improved play at the quarterback position with Geno Smith should help keep the chains moving, affording even more opportunities for Jeanty.
Ashton Jeanty at the end of Round 1 or beginning of Round 2 is a generational wealth opportunity pic.twitter.com/Wz67pjEJze
— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) August 15, 2025
As Graham Barfield once pointed out, Jeanty, along with Barkley and Joe Mixon, are the only backs who have averaged 6.0 Yards Created and 0.45 missed tackles forced per carry in their final college seasons dating back to 2016. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is a running back's dream as he finished with the sixth-most, 14th-most,17th-most, and fourth-most run-heavy offenses during his previous stints calling plays in the NFL.
Week 1 Sits - Potential Fantasy Football Busts
Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Another back poised for a great fantasy season in 2025 ends up on this week's sit list due to a poor matchup. Last season, the Broncos allowed 1,956 yards to opposing backs and just 13 touchdowns. When broken down in fantasy terms, which equated to 16.01 fantasy points per game, the third-fewest.
Heading into 2025, the Broncos will again have Alex Singleton handling the middle of their defense after missing much of the 2024 season due to injury. In 2023, Singleton recorded 177 combined tackles, finishing third that season. Denver also added D.J. Jones to a defensive front that pillaged quarterbacks, sacking the opposition a league-best 63 times. Safety Talanoa Hufanga joined their secondary, so all three levels of a defense that was already considered the best the NFL had to offer could be even better in 2025.
Not only is Denver's defense legit, but its offense can put points on the board. In the preseason, Denver has averaged 28.3 points per contest, picking up where they left off in 2024. In the final seven games of the regular season, Denver's offense averaged 32.5 points per game. If Denver limits what Tennessee does early on and produces when they have the ball, then the Titans' offense becomes one-dimensional, and Pollard will likely struggle to post a solid start this week.
Omarion Hampton - RB, Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
It will be interesting to see how Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman deploy Hampton and Najee Harris this week. On one hand, Hampton is the sexy new toy for what we believe will be a run-first offense. Hampton was as productive as they come in college, producing 1,500 rushing yards or more in each of his final two seasons while carrying the load for the Tar Heels, producing 5.9 yards per carry on 534 rushing attempts.
As for Harris, he is making a return to the lineup after a fireworks miscue earlier in the offseason and will also likely play a factor in capping Hampton's fantasy ceiling, at least in Week 1. Let's not forget that Harbaugh and company had a plan for Harris and made his signing a priority in the offseason. Harris has yet to miss a game in his NFL career and has produced at least 1,000 yards in each of those seasons.
Missed Tackles forced since 2021
Derrick Henry - 240
Najee Harris - 236
Josh Jacobs - 207
James Conner - 197
Saquon Barkley - 182
David Montgomery - 182
Jonathon Taylor - 165
Joe Mixon - 151
Aaron Jones - 150Per @FantasyPtsData
— Matt Donnelly (@MattDonnellyFF) August 5, 2025
There is a chance that Harris isn't going to cut into Hampton's role this week, but one aspect to this equation is Chris Jones and the Kansas City Chiefs. Last season, no team was stingier than the Chiefs were against the running back position, limiting opposing backs to 13.60 fantasy points per game. The next closest team to the Chiefs was the Eagles, who surrendered 2.16 more fantasy points per game than the Chiefs, while only the Ravens and Lions allowed fewer than the 1,269 rushing yards the Chiefs allowed.
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