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Connelly's fantasy baseball starting pitcher busts to bounce back in 2025. Fantasy managers should consider drafting these starting pitcher sleepers and values.
From a fantasy baseball draft prep perspective, one of the hardest things to do is to put faith in a player who burned you last season or did not meet expectations. It may be challenging, but it is worth sifting through to identify players worth another shot.
Fortunately, fantasy managers have ample data to help make that process easier. This is particularly true for pitchers, who have metrics for each pitch, batted-ball profile, and defense supporting them.
In this article, I will identify four starting pitchers who underperformed expectations in 2024 but have a rosier outlook for 2025. Hopefully, this will help fantasy managers target potential draft values as we gear up for the 2025 fantasy baseball season!
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Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds
Nick Lodolo is now 27 years old but was a top fantasy prospect early in his career. His 2024 did not reflect the past hype, as he went 9-6 with a 4.76 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 24.7 percent strikeout rate while making just 21 starts. He hasn't yet compiled a full, solid season, so why do I think he can do so in 2025?
Injuries have been an issue for Lodolo throughout his career, and while he experienced several in 2024, one in particular seemed to derail him. He spent two stints on the injured list in the first half of the season but went 8-3 with a 2.96 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 25.1 percent strikeout rate in 12 starts and 70 innings pitched.
He suffered blisters on his pitching hand heading into the second half, and things changed significantly. His numbers ballooned to a 7.54 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 24.3 percent strikeout rate in nine starts and just 45 1/3 IP. The impact of blisters on pitching performance has been an issue across MLB the past few seasons, so it seems fair to discount Lodolo's diminished performance to a degree.
The good news is that Lodolo has reported to camp in great shape, so he and the Reds are making a concerted effort to keep him healthy.
"I'm in a great spot." Reds starter Nick Lodolo is in the best shape of his career: https://t.co/UyYfiTcaFk via @enquirer
— Pat Brennan (@PBrennanENQ) February 16, 2025
His underlying numbers also suggested a better skill set than his peripherals indicated. His 3.72 xERA and 3.78 SIERA were both about a run better than his ERA.
Lodolo has been disappointing the past couple of seasons, but there are plenty of reasons to think he can still be a fantasy contributor. Fantasy managers can consider him as a low-risk, high-reward play this season, with a current ADP of 253.
Jordan Montgomery, Arizona Diamondbacks
2024 did not go as planned for Jordan Montgomery (finger). After a great 2023 season, he ended up signing late with the Diamondbacks and was awful with a 6.23 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and a 15.6 percent strikeout rate in 117 IP. With drama this offseason and no official guarantee for a rotation spot, what can fantasy managers expect from Montgomery in 2025?
Like Cole, it seems fair to take Montgomery's performance with some skepticism, given that he did not get a full start to the season. His fastball velocity was down from 2023 to 2024 by over 1 mph, which again could be attributed to his lack of a full spring.
Further, he seems to have gotten unlucky, even considering his diminished velocity. Montgomery allowed a higher hard-hit rate than usual at 41 percent, but his 88.6 mph average exit velocity was similar to his previous few seasons.
Despite this, his .347 BABIP was much higher than his .299 career mark, and his batting average against was over 100 points higher on each of his three main pitches. Overall, I would not expect Montgomery to continue to get the results he saw in 2024 if his batted-ball profile aligns with his career profile.
Montgomery does need to prove himself this spring, as the Diamondbacks have plenty of starting pitching depth. However, he had put together three consecutive solid seasons before 2024. Nothing seemed to go right, and a restart with a full spring seems like the perfect remedy.
Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Classifying a player as a bust is relative to their skill set. Gerrit Cole had a fine 2024 fantasy season, but his 3.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 25.4 percent strikeout rate were all lower than his career averages. He also missed roughly the first half of the season with elbow inflammation. What makes me think he can return to ace form entering his age-34 season?
The good news is that no single aspect of his game was bad by any means. His ERA was lower than his 3.64 xERA and 3.79 SIERA, and his .273 BABIP was higher than 2023 but was lower than his .292 career mark. His 7.4 percent walk rate was his highest since 2018 and was due to a decreased chase rate.
The biggest disappointment was Cole's strikeout rate, which was his lowest since 2017. His velocity was down, which was not surprising given his first-half injury.
The most noteworthy change was his increased cutter use from 7 percent to 15.8 percent. He saw the most significant drop in swinging strike rate on this pitch from 17 percent to 11.2 percent. This pitch yielded poor results across the board with a .320 batting average against.
Given his long record of success, I am inclined to give Cole the benefit of the doubt. It is reasonable to think he could see a strikeout uptick and a bit more velocity if he enters the season healthy. His increased cutter usage did not work out for him, but this is something that he can control through his pitch mix usage.
Cole is coming at a relative discount in fantasy drafts this season, being selected as the 15th starting pitcher. I would gladly take Cole at this position as long as he has a healthy spring.
Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies
I already wrote about Jesus Luzardo once this offseason as a 2025 draft sleeper, largely because I think he is a bounce-back candidate. He only made 12 starts before injury with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 21.2 percent strikeout rate. However, the former top prospect has a much better team context for 2025 and has the opportunity to be a fantasy contributor.
My main excitement for Luzardo is based on his previous performance. He made 50 starts covering 279 IP between 2022-23 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 28.7 percent strikeout rate. He also had encouraging signs in 2024. His off-speed pitches were both fantastic, with his slider and changeup generating 21.8 percent and 22.2 percent swinging strike rates, respectively.
Six starting pitchers had 2+ offerings with a 40+% whiff rate in 2024, min 200 pitches for each offering.
Blake Snell (3)
Tyler Glasnow
Jesús Luzardo
Reese Olson
Spencer Schwellenbach
Kyle Gibson pic.twitter.com/aeMZ9MAB0Y— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2025
Luzardo's new team should also provide a boost to his fantasy value. He produced at times with both the Athletics and Marlins but has never had the opportunity to pitch in a strong rotation with a high-end lineup supporting him. This should put Luzardo in the best position of his career to earn wins.
The fantasy community at large seems to not have Luzardo on their radar, as his current ADP is 317. This is a vast difference from the 2024 drafts when Luzardo was being drafted at pick 87 overall. Luzardo will be a nice value pick at his current ADP if he regresses even a little, with the opportunity to be a huge value if he can reproduce his 2023 numbers.
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