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Mike Marteny takes a look at some seedings that feel off in the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket reveal. Will this result in some upsets during the first week?
The field of 68 is finally set for the chaos of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. As recently as two weeks ago, there looked to be two teams head-and-shoulders above the rest. Now We have questions about a lot of them and none look truly dominant. The seeding this year is more off than I remember in any year since the tournament expanded in 1985. No one will forget what happened that year!
So, which teams got a seed that perhaps they didn't deserve, for better or for worse? We will take a look at some overseeded and underseeded teams from each region and what it might mean for the bracket. I only did one per region last year. This year, there is more than one in almost every region.
In this article, I will be providing you with my seeds for the tournament that for one reason or another don't sit right. Be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your brackets. Good luck, RotoBallers!
West Region Tournament Controversial Seeds
Overseeded - (5) Memphis
Per our Bracketology Deserves (compared to the official 1-68 seeds), these are the most overseeded NCAAT teams, those we might consider early-upset victims in their respective brackets:
🔵 Memphis (+12)
🔵 Purdue (+9)
🔵 Texas (+8)
🔵 Arkansas (+6)
🔵 Missouri (+5)
🔵 North…— Erik Haslam (@haslametrics) March 17, 2025
Memphis won the American regular season and conference tournament crowns, but they still only finished 49th in the NET rankings. The Tigers were a strong 6-1 in Quad 1 games, but they also lost two Quad 3 games. Memphis looked strong in the RPI rankings, which were once regarded as gospel by the committee.
According to the RPI, Memphis had the best non-conference strength of schedule and was 24 overall. That may have contributed to this seed, but Louisville or Gonzaga deserved this seed instead. Memphis should have been a six.
Underseeded - (12) Colorado State
There's a reason that Colorado State is favored in this game. That tells me that Tyrese Hunter is likely out for Memphis, but it also reflects Colorado State nuking the Mountain West Tournament.
All three of their Quad 1 wins have come this month. We usually don't see the Mountain West Tournament champ -- a conference that is now considered above mid-major status to do several multi-bid years -- seeded this low. The 47 NET ranking suggests the Rams are about right, but their NET ranking is better than the five seed in this region.
South Region Tournament Controversial Seeds
Overseeded - (4) Texas A&M
The Aggies are 18 in both the NET and RPI rankings. That suggests they are slightly overseeded, but what seals this for me is how they finished the season. A&M lost four of the last six games. One of the wins was over the top overall seed (Auburn), but that shouldn't have been enough to land them on the four-line for reasons I'll cover in a minute.
Underseeded - (5) Michigan
Michigan won the Big Ten (18) Tournament. You know, the conference that is widely considered to be the second-best in the country this season. The Wolverines notched three straight Quad 1 wins in Indianapolis to cut down the nets, so it's not like they benefitted from upsets.
Purdue -- a team that lost six of the last nine games -- still got a 4-seed. So did Maryland. Michigan should have been a 4-seed at worst. Now they get arguably the worst first-round matchup.
Underseeded - (8) Louisville
The Selection Committee's most egregious errors:
#1: North Carolina last team in over West Virginia
#2: Louisville an 8 seed while Clemson is a 5
#3: BYU a 6 seed while Arizona is a 4
#4: Oklahoma a 9 seed with 6-12 SEC record
#5: Michigan a 5 seed while Wisconsin is a 3… pic.twitter.com/UkI24TqG0v
— College Sports Only 🏈 🏀 ⚾️ (@CollegeSportsO) March 17, 2025
The Cardinals are ranked 10th in the AP Poll and are seeded eighth. The 24 NET ranking suggests that the AP ranking may be a little ambitious, but the Cardinals should have been a 6-seed at the worst. 8 is a massive insult to the conference who couldn't explain why North Carolina got in.
Per our Bracketology Deserves (compared to the official 1-68 seeds), these are the most underseeded NCAAT teams, those we might consider sleepers in their respective brackets:
🔴 Louisville (-11)
🔴 Michigan (-6)
🔴 Saint Mary's (-6)
🔴 VCU (-6)
🔴 Maryland (-5)
🔴 New Mexico…— Erik Haslam (@haslametrics) March 17, 2025
You can't have it both ways. Either the conference is down and Louisville's seed is right, or the conference is underrated so North Carolina deserves to be in. It can't be both. For what it's worth, Louisville beat Clemson -- a five seed -- twice this season and had the same conference record.
East Region Tournament Controversial Seeds
Overseeded - (5) Oregon
It may be easy to pick on Wisconsin as a 3-seed, but they did make the Big Ten Championship and were 15th in the NET. That suggests a slight overseeding, but not nearly as bad as Duck U.
Oregon's NET ranking is 29. They went out with a whimper in Indy to Michigan State. Oregon should have been closer to Louisville's 8-seed than a 5-seed.
Underseeded - (6) BYU
The Cougars won nine of the last 10 games, with the only loss coming in the Big 12 (16) Final to Houston. They beat Iowa State twice in that span and beat Arizona. Arizona is a 4-seed and Iowa State is a 3. BYU should have Memphis's 5-seed. As a consolation prize, the Cougars do get to play in Denver.
Midwest Region Tournament Controversial Seeds
Overseeded - (4) Purdue
The Boilermakers lost six of the last nine games and were 19 in the NET rankings. That was behind conference peer (and worse seed) Illinois (6) and the same as Maryland (4). Purdue should have been lucky to get a five-seed.
Overseeded - (11) North Carolina
All 111 bracketologists had WVU in the field
Texas: 50/111
Xavier: 30/111
UNC: 27/111https://t.co/lKthd1G6Vk— Ethan Bock (@ethanbock_) March 16, 2025
Q1 records amongst bubble teams
West Virginia: 6-10 // MISSED
North Carolina: 1-12 // LAST 4 IN
Xavier: 1-9 // LAST 4 INLike what are we even doing here 😭
— Ethan Bock (@ethanbock_) March 16, 2025
This isn't as bad as Virginia last year. Virginia had the worst NET and RPI ranking for an at-large team ever. Carolina's 36 NET ranking was actually better than West Virginia's, but all we hear out of the committee and ESPN is "Quad 1 this, Quad 1 that." It's the be-all, end-all for selection in today's world...until the committee chair's team goes 1-12 in Quad 1 games.
It was also revealed that the committee chair gets a nice, fat bonus when his team makes the NCAA Tournament. Convenient, huh?
Quad 1 is inherently flawed since it heavily favors the major conferences. It's why the SEC got a staggering 14 teams in. Why? Almost every game was a Quad 1 game in the conference. It's unfair, and just another way for the major conferences to screw the little guys.
Underseeded - (8) Gonzaga
Gonzaga is the first team in the NET era to finish Top 15 in both the NET and predictive metric average and not receive a Top 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Selection Committee gave Gonzaga an 8 seed.
I feel bad for 9 seed Georgia, a healthy 6.5 point underdog in the Round of…
— JBR Bracketology (@JBRBracketology) March 17, 2025
Gonzaga is 8 in the NET rankings and 20 in the RPI. The NET suggests that Gonzaga should be a 3-seed at worst. The RPI suggests a 5-seed. The committee of bozos added the two together...
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