Stop That Hype Train! Rob Gronkowski

August 18, 2020

Entering 2020, has the hype train gone too far when it comes to Tampa Bay tight end Rob Gronkowski's fantasy football value? Rishi Patel looks at why better value can be found elsewhere at the TE position.

For the first time in a long, long time, many of us are viewing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a legitimate threat in the NFC. Those are words that many of us would have never thought of saying before Tom Brady made the surprising decision to head down to Central Florida this offseason.

Now, the Bucs have a crazy good offense that features WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, along with TE O.J. Howard and Brady’s old buddy Rob Gronkowski. After calling it a career a year ago, “Gronk” has decided to rejoin his longtime pal in Tampa to hopefully hoist another Lombardi or two.

Gronkowski is now 31-years-old and coming off a gap year. Remember, one of the primary reasons he retired was dealing with the physical aftermath of so many hits and injuries. Now older in age and still dealing with wear and tear on his body, Gronkowski may not be the same guy he once was on the field and in fantasy. Let’s break down his value.

2018 Recap

The University of Arizona product last played in 2018 with the New England Patriots in what was supposed to be his final NFL season. The 31-year-old played 13 games but had an “off-year” compared to what he produced in other seasons while playing at least that many games. Nevertheless, Gronk had 47 receptions, 72/574 targets (12.5%), 682 yards, 14.5 yards per catch, and three touchdowns. He finished 11^th among fantasy tight ends. Among NFL tight ends, Gronk notably ranked 13^th in receptions and 18^th in touchdowns.

The tight end played a total of nine seasons with New England and he managed to play at least 13 or more games in six of those seasons. He recorded his second-lowest receptions, targets, and receiving yards, along with his lowest touchdown rate, in the 2018 campaign when comparing those six seasons. His lowest numbers in receptions, targets, and receiving yards from those six seasons came during his rookie year in 2010. These 2018 ranks depict the decline the tight end was going through during his age-29 season before he retired.

2020 Outlook

Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski have terrific chemistry together and the GOAT can always rely on his buddy to be a safety blanket on the field and red zone. Now on Tampa together, things will be a bit different though. Compared to recent seasons in New England, Brady has two elite pass-catchers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

The QB also has multiple tight ends to throw to as well including O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. If Gronk gets double-teamed, there is no reason why Brady can’t throw it to someone else. After all, he’s been holding offseason workouts to build chemistry with guys other than Gronk. Unlike much of his time in New England, Gronkowski will have to fight for targets with two other capable tight ends.

Alabama product O.J. Howard is only 25-years-old and coming off two respectable seasons. The 2017 first-round pick stockpiled 34 receptions, 53/630 targets (8.4%), 459 yards, 13.5 yards per catch, and one touchdown in 14 games during the 2019 season. In 2018, Howard recorded 34 receptions, 48/625 targets (7.7%), 565 yards, 16.6 yards per catch, and five touchdowns in 10 games. He is more than capable of cutting into Gronk’s production and targets.

Cameron Brate is also a respectable tight end. The 29-year-old accumulated 36 receptions, 55/630 targets (8.7%), 311 yards, 8.6 yards per catch, and four touchdowns in 16 games last season. The Harvard product has played in the NFL for six seasons now and has proved he can ever shoulder a large role, as evidence of his 2016 season.

Because Brady’s longtime teammate is returning after a one-year hiatus and has logged more hits on his body than the other pass-catchers, we don’t know how quickly he can return to form and how dominant he will be on the field this Fall. In addition, the Bucs have a significantly more prolific and talented receiving unit than New England did in Gronk’s final couple of years. Thus, the ball could be more spread around because there are plenty of receivers who could be productive. Gronk should be viewed as a low TE1 in redraft heading into draft day. However, considering his decline in 2018, his one-year hiatus, the history of injuries, and increased competition for targets, there is a chance he may not ball-out in the way fantasy owners have grown accustomed to over the years.

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