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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 6/4/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
We nearly had the sweep yesterday, hitting four out of five NRFI bets. The lone miss was the KC-STL game, which turned into an offensive showdown as both starting pitchers got mauled.
Today we are back for more! We have a few early afternoon starts, but the majority of games that we will be targeting are set for their first pitch in the evening hours.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are picks where you determine whether or not two MLB teams will score one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
These are popular bets because bettors only have to sweat out the first inning, not the entire game's outcome. The most common outcome for the first inning is an NRFI, so the odds usually reflect that, with NRFI bets carrying shorter odds than YRFIs.
Even the best offenses in baseball are still only scoring a run in roughly 50% of their first innings. Every day, I'll weigh the Vegas odds against what I calculate to be the expected probability of an NRFI/YRFI in each MLB game and provide my top NRFI picks and/or YRFI picks for your consideration.
Best First Inning Bets Today (June 4, 2025)
- Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds (12:40 pm)
- Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals (6:45 pm)
- Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals (7:45 pm)
- San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (9:45 pm)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- MIL: DL Hall (2-0)
- CIN: Andrew Abbott (9-0)
Yesterday, I resisted the temptation of targeting this game despite two very good pitchers taking the mound (Freddy Peralta and Hunter Greene) based on how well Cincinnati had been swinging the bats in the early innings, and it paid off as the Brewers pushed across a run in the first.
So what's different today? Well, for one, we have two left-handed hurlers on the mound, which flips both offenses on the worse side of their splits. Cincinnati is considerably worse vs. lefties this season, and a solid lefty can neutralize TJ Friedl while also getting Elly De La Cruz on the weaker side of his splits. Hall has been hurt most of the year, but he is a hard-throwing young prospect coming off three strong innings against the Phillies in his last outing. He's still being stretched out in terms of pitch count, but that doesn't affect our bet as we care about the first inning.
Andrew Abbott got robbed of NL Pitcher of the Month.#Reds pic.twitter.com/p108mRnz6Z
— Reds Daily (@RedsDaily4) June 3, 2025
The Reds send Abbott and his unblemished NRFI record to the mound. He's coming off perhaps his best start of the season as he blanked the Cubs over seven frames. It's been fascinating to watch his development this season. He's turned a corner and is pitching like a seasoned veteran in his third full season.
There's some great pitching here, and we are getting a very solid price at -120. The park factor is likely priced in, and a home run can always ruin us, but both pitchers have a big enough advantage here to make it worth the risk.
Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals NRFI (-130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- CHC: Matthew Boyd (8-3)
- WAS: MacKenzie Gore (9-3)
Matthew Boyd had two straight YRFIs until he last faced the Rockies and started a new NRFI streak. I like this matchup for him today because he should have the platoon advantage against the top of the Washington order, as CJ Abrams, James Wood, and Nathaniel Lowe all hit from the left side.
Boyd doesn't have drastic splits, but he's been more effective against LHH this season and throughout his career.
MacKenzie Gore tonight:
6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 8 K pic.twitter.com/Xj5alMyGWN
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 30, 2025
Gore is officially an ace this season as he's taken his game to another level. In years past, he got into trouble with walks and home runs, mixing good starts with blow-ups. But this season, he's trimmed the walks down while increasing the strikeouts in a big way, and the results have been quite impressive.
The Cubs are a tough offense to shut down, but they will be without their best hitter, Kyle Tucker, today, and their second-best bat has been lefty Pete Crow-Armstrong. They've not been a very good first-inning offense this season either, at just a 73% NRFI rate.
I'm backing two pitchers having great seasons so far here, and I think they both match up well today, even if the offenses do have some dangerous hitters.
Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals NRFI (-120 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- KCR: Noah Cameron (4-0)
- STL: Miles Mikolas (8-3)
Yes, I am going back to the same game that burned us last night! Just like a pitcher who gave up a home run on his last pitch, as a bettor, you have to have a short memory. I liked my process on the pick yesterday, and it just turned out that Bobby Witt Jr., who is an elite hitter, happened to get a pitch he could turn on for a two-run home run.
Yesterday's result shouldn't affect our pick here today, as we have two more pitchers who have been effective in the first frame this season. I worry about some overall regression coming for the rookie lefty Cameron at some point, but he's worked four clean first innings in his first start.
And we can poke fun at Miles Mikolas all we want for being far past his prime and one of the more hittable pitchers in the big leagues, but he's riding a four-game NRFI streak and sporting a solid 8-3 NRFI record this season. The Royals' offense finally put up some runs yesterday, but they still rank in the bottom third on the season (74%) in offensive NRFI rating.
I do think we get some offense in this game, I just hope it comes anytime after the first inning.
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants NRFI (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers (NRFI record)
- SDP: Nick Pivetta (9-2)
- SFG: Kyle Harrison (1-1)
Nick Pivetta looked great in his last start against the Pirates (Pittsburgh makes many pitchers look good lately) and now gets to pick on the slumping Giants. With their recent offensive slide, San Francisco now has the second-worst NRFI rating in MLB at 77% on the season, and they're just 1-9 on YRFIs over their last 10 games.
Nick Pivetta's 2Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/CnKIjyQmxf
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2025
So I think Pivetta gets through the first inning cleanly, but we will still need the young lefty Kyle Harrison to get through the San Diego top third of the lineup without surrendering a run. He was a bit shaky in his first start of the season against the Nationals, but looked great last time out against Miami.
He'll need to be very careful with Manny Machado, who has been a lefty-masher throughout his career, but I'm willing to bet on Harrison here as I think he's an above-average pitcher with pretty good stuff. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Luis Arraez are tough outs, but he gets both on the wrong side of their splits (Tatis hits righties better).
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Longest NRFI Streak: Giants, Red Sox (9-1)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Mets, Yankees (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Mets (5)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: D-Backs (.396)
- Best First Inning On Base Percentage: D-Backs (.442)
As we wrap up today’s MLB slate, these carefully selected NRFI bets offer strong value based on matchup data, pitcher trends, and team splits.
Whether you're targeting early afternoon action or focusing on the evening games, today’s NRFI picks provide several high-probability opportunities. With elite arms on the mound and underperforming top-of-the-order lineups, the edge lies with No Run First Inning outcomes.
Stay sharp and always monitor lineups and weather before locking in your wagers. For smart, strategic NRFI bets today and the best insights in NRFI betting, keep checking back daily for your top MLB NRFI bets.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and thanks for reading!
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